Rasmus Dahlin is having a bounce back season after teetering toward the precipice of certified draft bust in 2020-2021 under former head coach Ralph Krueger. Dahlin is only one point away from matching his total offensive production from last year – 23 points in in 56 games last season – as he has 22 points in 34 games this year. His offensive confidence has rebounded considerably under the tutelage of a coach who attempts to accentuate the positives of his roster rather than making them all into defensively minded drones who seek only to stifle anything remotely fun.
Let’s continue with some other positives. Dahlin finished last season with a -36 in his 56 games while he only has a -9 so far this season. That is definitely an improvement. Likewise, he’s more eager to jump in the rush to create offensive opportunities for his team rather than pulling up at the offensive blue line to dump the puck into the corner.
Still, Dahlin isn’t exactly tearing it up. He hasn’t shown a capability to take over a game like a difference-making first-overall pick could be expected to do. Sure, he shows flashes throughout a game which leads to some “ooh-and-ahh” moments, but more often than not those chances end without the puck in the back of the net (or at least in the back of the opposition’s net).
Many would point to the fact that Dahlin is still young for a defenseman at 21 years old, and certainly that point has merit. However, that point may be somewhat overstated. Let’s take a side-by-side look at the analytic comparison between Dahlin and the numbers put up by his Swedish compatriot Erik Karlsson during his age-21 season for the Ottawa Senators:
Karlsson put up 78 points in that season, and his RAPM chart looked like this:
Meanwhile, Dahlin is on pace for 52 points and his RAPM chart looks like this:
Not great, Bob.
If we’re honest with ourselves, this isn’t the type of production or play anyone thought the Sabres would get when they drafted Dahlin in 2018; the assumption was that he would be considerably better by this point in his career. The question is whether the Sabres should continue banking on continued offensive improvement from the defenseman, or whether they should pull the rip cord and get out while the getting is good.
Dahlin is never going to be Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes. He simply doesn’t have the God-given footspeed to put him in the same category as those two. He can still carve out a nice career with what he does have, namely deceptive footwork, patience and vision, but it’s highly, highly unlikely he ever achieves the offensive ceiling of his two contemporaries due to his limited speed. It’s just not going to happen. He shouldn’t be considered in the same category as those two currently, and he shouldn’t be considered untouchable.
The era of untouchable players on the Sabres’ roster is over in any case.
Once upon a time, it was thought that the Sabres would never trade a bona fide #1 center in the prime of his career. That obviously happened when Jack Eichel was dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights earlier this season. The only two players currently on the Sabres roster who remotely merit the “untouchable” designation would be Dylan Cozens and former first-overall selection Rasmus Dahlin, and even then, it’s tough to peg either player as truly untradable. They’re nice young players, sure, but that doesn’t mean that the team shouldn’t explore all options available to them, especially when considering that both really haven’t accomplished much at this early point in their respective careers. The only two “untouchables” for the Sabres both play in the NCAA currently – defenseman Owen Power at Michigan and goaltender Devon Levi at Northeastern.
Speaking of Power, his emergence will present the Sabres with another dilemma when he joins the professional ranks. Both Owen Power and Rasmus Dahlin play the left side and there will only be room for one on the top pairing moving forward. It doesn’t look like Dahlin will ever turn into a bona fide top pairing defenseman at this point if the sabres were presented with other alternatives. Sure, the Sabres could move Dahlin over to the right side, but fans saw that experiment go horribly wrong earlier this season. Dahlin’s ability to track and properly play a man barreling down on him from the right side resulted in some truly ugly highlights against where he got absolutely walked for a goal against.
The natural alternative to moving him to the right side, then, assuming that Power becomes a true top-pairing defenseman (a rather large assumption, I know), is that Dahlin becomes a second-pairing powerplay specialist similar to Rasmus Ristolainen. The question is whether the Sabres should employ him to occupy that role. Dahlin is being paid $6m per season for this season and the next two after, conceivably with the notion that he will grow into a top-pairing defender and earn a lucrative long-term deal upon the conclusion of this compact. Six million per year is well above what a second-pairing defenseman should be paid to play the powerplay, and Sabres fans know that all too well with Rasmus Ristolainen occupying that roster spot with a $5.4m cap hit. To top it off, at the end of the contract, the Sabres will find themselves in the same position they were with Sam Reinhart: an expiring RFA who can simply take a one-year award and walk to free agency.
So, the Sabres have to decide whether Dahlin can truly be a top-pairing defender rather than topping out as a second-pairing offensive specialist. His rebound year under Don Granato may give them a chance to sell high on the defenseman and use him to bring in a quality player via trade. The Sabres will be in the market for a difference making forward this off season and Dahlin (along with a draft pick) would go a long way toward securing the services of that player, whomever it may be. Likewise, Dahlin and one of their first-round picks from the Golden Knights or the Florida Panthers should be able to move the Sabres up into the top-5 of the coming draft. Granted, top-5 picks are seldom traded.
The bottom line is that Don Granato has salvaged some value from Rasmus Dahlin. The question is whether he’ll continue to ascend, or will he plateau at this current level. If this is it, then the Sabres should consider getting out while his value is high.
Buffalo Sabres Blogger • 
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