The all star break is here which means the season is a little more than half over even if it feels like it has been going longer. This also means the trade deadline is creeping up. The Penguins have proven to the front office that they are still quite competitive and it isn’t quite time to break the band up just yet.
A big decision coming up, besides Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, is Bryan Rust’s situation. There are three options in play. Trade him because you don’t want to lose him for nothing and you don’t think you can re-sign him. Keep him this year and watch him walk. Keep him and re-sign him long term.
The first option is ludicrous. It is a non-starter and makes literally no sense. It is either you’re all-in or you aren’t. You cant trade one of the best producing wingers who Sidney Crosby loves playing with because they might walk. That is the cost of being in a win now window.
The second option is more palatable. It shows restraint and the understanding that Bryan Rust’s next contract is going to get ugly at some point down the road. My personal estimation is that the negotiations for the Penguins would have to start somewhere around six years for 6M per season. Depending on if Rust wants to max out even that might not be enough, but I think you’re in the ballpark if you’re the Penguins.
The third option is the one I would go with. I would re-sign Bryan Rust knowing the contract is going to be bad at some point, but who cares. Who honestly gives a shit about four or five years from now? I’ve said it once and I’ll say it again you only get Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin once. Keep pushing the chips to the middle and delaying the inevitable. When Rutherford gutted the farm system and draft picks this was the only path forward. Own the path and do the best job you can. Deal with the fallout later.
Hot off the presses (released yesterday) here is a snapshot of who Bryan Rust is as he heads into his 30 year old season
If the Penguins are serious about still contending you aren’t replacing this. They have no assets to trade to acquire someone of this caliber. If they want to buck up in free agency, whatever target with these impacts is very likely going to cost more than what Rust would probably accept from the Penguins. Rust isn’t going to take some kind of hometown discount, but you might not have to pay full retail, either.
Aging curves are a thing and it is why the end of Rust’s contract, regardless of where he signs, is going to be pretty bad. Unfortunately, the way the NHL currently has things setup in free agency this is a problem every team faces. By design, you are paying for past performance as the player declines due to age. Until they change the RFA ages or do away with RFA status altogether after the original rookie contract this will continue to be an issue.
Bryan Rust is currently on a 109 point pace this season. He has 32 points in 24 games. In the last three seasons he is 16th overall with a goals per game of 0.47. Jake Guentzel is the only Penguins with a better number than Rust and he is only a sliver better at 0.49. Jake Guentzel is a goal scoring machine so I suppose that makes Rust one, too.
The signing obviously doesn’t come without risk. It obviously comes with a high amount of risk. Bryan Rust doesn’t exactly play full seasons and he hasn’t even hit 30 yet.
Since becoming a full time player in the NHL he has played seven seasons and 374 total games. It averages out to about 53.5 games per season. I don’t like the sound of that, either. But I also don’t think there’s another clear path to keep that kind of production in the lineup. You’re either going for it or you’re not. A decision like this is part of re-signing both Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang, which is imperative as well. Finding an impact right wing to replace Rust will be next to impossible. Unless you think Claude Giroux goes full villain and joins up with his old teammate Jeff Carter…
The Penguins should attempt to be proactive and give Rust an offer during the season. Rust may elect to test the market, and honestly he should. It is his hard earned right and the one true time he has the leverage to chart out his future. Even if he elects to test the market he would know the Penguins are serious about wanting him. Many times players would rather not move all their stuff and families to another city if they don’t have to. Show him you care sooner than later because when you think about what is worse, his next contract or replacing him, the latter is going to be way more difficult and there’s not guarantee you ever do.
Thanks for reading!
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