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Odds aren't with any team in tonight's annual NHL draft lottery |
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The Montreal Canadiens posted the NHL’s worst record and they have a 55.7% chance of picking third in the 2022 draft in July.
The Habs have a 25.5% chance of picking No. 1 and drafting Shane Wright.
Whether you believe that system is fair or not, those numbers will be in play tonight when the NHL conducts its annual draft lottery from the NHL Network studios in New Jersey (6:30 on ESPN).
These are the odds that were instituted to prevent teams from “tanking” to secure the No. 1 pick.
One change this season is that there are two different lotteries. There will be a lottery for the first pick and then a lottery for the second pick. Also, a team can only move up 10 spots. That means only the worst 11 teams can “win” the No. 1 pick. The rest of the draft order is determined by reverse order in the standings.
The rule tweaks help the worst teams. The Canadiens actually only have an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery, but climb to 25.5% for No. 1 because there are five teams with long odds that can’t get to No. 1.
For example, if the No. 15 Vancouver .Canucks or No. 16 Vegas Golden Knights win the lotteries, the Canadiens would pick No. 1 on the basis of the worst record. The Canucks and Golden Knights would only move up 10 spots.
Here is my preliminary ranking of the top draft picks for non-playoff teams:
1. Center Shane Wright, Kingston (OHL): He's been the projected No. 1 from the beginning the season
2. Center Logan Cooley, U.S. National Team Development Program: Slick, fast, smart, creative, a difference maker. Playing style similar to Trevor Zegras.
3. Left wing Juraj Slafkovsky, TPS. Finland: Many NHL teams may have Slafkovsky at No. 2. He is 6-foot-3, 220 pounds. He's more beastly than Cooley. He played a major role in helping Slovakia win a bronze medal at the Olympics. Could play in the NHL next season.
4. Joakim Kenell, JYP, Finland: At 18, scored 15 goals in Finland's top league. Quality offensive player.
5. Defenseman Simon Nemec, HK Nitra (Slovakia): Mature and poised, Nemec is the best defenseman in the draft.
6. Center Matt Savoie, Winnipeg (WHL): He doesn’t quite make it to 5-foot-10. But he might be the fastest player in the draft.
7 . Defenseman David Jiricek, Plzen (Czech Republic): He’s 6-foot-3, a strong skater,
quality defender, above-average offensive player, a dedicated two-way performer.
8. Right wing Jonathan Lekkerimaki, (Sweden): Memorable performance in helping Sweden win the U-18 World Championship enhanced his draft status. Dynamic player
9. Center/left wing Cutter Gauthier, U.S. NTDP: He’s 6-foot-3, bullish and scored 19 goals in 22 United States Hockey League games.
10. Center Conor Geekie, Winnipeg (WHL): If he could improve his skating a bit, he could be a force at the NHL level. The 6-foot-4 forward posted 70 points in 63 games
11. Center Frank Nazar, U.S. National Team Development Program. Plays a fast, smart, two-way game at center. Heading to the University of Michigan to play college hockey.
12. Center Brad Lambert, Pelicans, Finland: His mother is Finnish, but his father was Canadian Ross Lambert who played in the Western Hockey League and at Princeton.
13. Defenseman Pavel Mintyukov, Saginaw (OHL): He’s a 6-foot-2 Russian offensive defenseman who had 62 points in 67 games
14. Forward Danila Yurov, Magnitogorsk (KHL): Skilled player, but might drop a bit because it’s unknown what will happen with Russian work visas over the next few years.
15. Left wing/right wing Jimmy Snuggerrud, U.S. NTDP: Has the look of an elite goal scorer. Son of former NHL player Dave Snuggerud. Had 26 points in 26 games in the USHL.
16. Forward Isaac Howard, U.S. NTDP: His offensive gifts are evident in his statistics of 37 points in 26 USHL games.
Blogger •HHOF Writer's column on the NHL • 
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