|
Battle of Alberta — A Comprehensive Series Preview |
|
|
|
|
|
On Wednesday at 7:30pm, a hockey game will begin.
That’s the simplest way of putting it.
Another way?
Two days from now, two arch rivals will play their first playoff series in 31 years. Two teams with active storylines involving a mutual hate for one another.
Over the past five years we’ve seen career turning nights, character defining brawls, the crossing of the floor of several players and coaches, season-altering blowouts, and ultimately the greatest validation that either team was capable of.
Hate, violence, fear, rage, betrayal.
And of course glory.
For the last decade and a half, these games have been largely both teams’ best chance at validation as each club struggled with the process of becoming a Contender in status.
This Wednesday a series begins that will finally establish that. One team will come out of it as Alberta Legend and the other will go home to hang their heads on what could have been.
Let’s look at the two teams performance over the course of the 21-22 NHL regular season.
Calgary Flames
50-20-11 — 111 points — 6th in NHL
Goals for: 291 (6th)
Goals against: 206 (3rd)
Goals for per game: 3.55 (6th)
Goals against per game: 2.51 (3rd)
Powerplay %: 22.9 (9th)
Penalty kill %: 83.2 (6th)
Edmonton Oilers
49-27-6 — 104 points — 11th in NHL
Goals for: 285 (7th)
Goals against: 251 (18th)
Goals for per game: 3.48 (7th)
Goals against per game: 3.06 (18th)
Powerplay %: 26.0% (3rd)
Penalty kill %: 79.4% (17th)
Useful statistics to be sure, but let’s examine a few turning points for each team over 82 games.
The Edmonton Oilers
It was a tale of three seasons for the Edmonton Oilers. A strong start out of the gate resulted in a 16-5-0 record after 21 games.
Now if you’re a long time observer of the Alberta teams, you may notice that each franchise has some troubling tendencies year over year. The Flames, for example, are well known for their slow starts. Oddly enough and perhaps in a statement of defiance, they bucked that trend. In fact, their only regulation loss in the month of October came at the hands of— well the Oilers. A 5-2 loss to open the season.
That said, one trend remained consistent this season. The Oilers almost always stumble in December, January and February.
On December 1st, just like clockwork, the Oilers concluded said 16-5-0 run. They lost their next six games. A two win respite— followed by a seven game losing streak.
On January 22, 2022, the Flames and Oilers played game two of their season series. The Oilers willed their way to a 5-3 victory on the back of Leon Draisatl (2G, 2A) and backup Mikko Koskinen (44/47, .936).
The momentum of this win carried the Oilers to a 4-0-1 record in their next five. Unfortunately, the writing was already on the wall for head coach Dave Tippett. Getting swept on a back-to-back against the Vegas Golden Knights and (hated) Chicago Blackhawks served as the final nail in the coffin.
On February 11, 2022, the Oilers organization fired Dave Tippett and hired Jay Woodcroft as their head coach.
They finished tied for the best record in the NHL after that point.
And who were they tied with?
The Calgary Flames.
As of Febraury 11
Calgary Flames: 25-8-5 — 55 points (T-1st in NHL)
Edmonton Oilers: 26-9-3 — 55 points (T-1st in NHL)
Ho boy.
The Calgary Flames
The Flames had quite a different season from the Oilers. While Edmonton struggled with their own personal demons, the Calgary Flames vanquished their own.
Annual slow start? 6-1-1 in October.
Failing to show up for 1st periods? 4th overall in 1st period goals. (93)
Unable to hold leads for extended periods? 1st overall in wins after finishing the first period with a lead. (32)
Unable to play a full 60 minute game of defence? A league leading 11 shutouts and the 3rd best defence in the league. (2.51GA/GP)
The only real issue with the Flames in the 21-22 season was a tendency to slip into losing streaks.
Flames Losing Streaks in the 21-22 Season
Three games - November 9th-12th: 4-1 Sharks, 4-2 Canadiens, 2-1 Leafs
Four games - December 5th-11th: 3-2 Golden Knights, 5-3 Sharks, 2-1 Hurricanes, 4-2 Bruins
Four games - January 4th-13th: 6-2 Panthers, 4-1 Lightning, 6-3 Hurricanes, 4-1 Senators
Three games - March 29th-April 2nd: 2-1 Avalanche, 3-2 Kings, 6-4 Blues
This tends to happen due to a mix of hot goalies and a condensed schedule.
Ignoring four extended hiccups, the Calgary Flames’ season featured much less drama compared to their northern brethren. Their 111 points and 50-20-11 record served as their best record since 1989, where they went 54-17-9 for 117 points. The 21-22 season featured the second best record in Flames history.
Accompanying that was a top line that all put up +40 goals. Two players (Tkachuk and Gaudreau) finished with +100 points and the entire first line topped the league charts in +/-.
This series is going to be fun. Let’s look at some keys to victory for both teams.
Pressuring Down Low
This season the Flames have gotten very good at something that the Edmonton Oilers are very bad at defending.
That is putting the pressure on defensemen in their own end and generating chances based off passes from below the red line.
Four of nine goals scored by the Flames in the last meeting between both teams featured the forward drawing the defence out down low before setting up a one timer in the slot. Here are how many goals the Flames have scored on the Oilers that started with a pass from down low.
Flames Goals Scored by Plays Within Ten Feet of the Goal Line
Oct 16 - 5-2 Oilers: 1/2
January 22 - 5-3 Oilers: 1/3
March 07 - 3-1 Flames: 1/3
March 26 - 9-5 Flames: 4/9
So 7 of 17.
You should expect to see a lot more of these types of plays in the coming weeks.
Another weakness in the Oilers defence? Their net front and inner slot coverage. 11 of the Flames’ 17 goals against the Oilers were scored within 20 feet of the net.
The Rough Stuff
A bit of a shameful stat for the Edmonton Oilers this season. Tied with the Blue Jackets for 32nd overall in fighting majors with only seven in 82 games. Not much compared to the Flames’ 19.
Here’s a breakdown of the physical side of these two teams.
Calgary Flames
Hits: 1836 (20th)
Fights: 19 (15th)
Penalties Drawn: 311 (11th)
Penalties Taken: 313 (10th)
Major Penalties Taken: 20 (17th)
Penalty Differential: -2 (20th)
PIM: 774 (11th)
Average Height: 6’2”
Average Weight: 202lbs
Edmonton Oilers
Hits: 1853 (15th)
Fights: 7 (T-32nd)
Penalties Drawn: 269 (31st)
Penalties Taken: 291 (19th)
Penalty Differential: -22 (27th)
Major Penalties Taken: 8 (31st)
PIM: 666 (23rd)
Average Height: 6’1”
Average Weight: 198lbs
Very close in the hitting department. Certainly worth noting that the Oilers don’t have a strong penalty differential. Darnell Nurse and Evander Kane lead the team in negative penalty differential this season.
Penalty Differential
Evander Kane: -11
Darnell Nurse: -18
Connor McDavid: +34
Expect Zach Kassian to get his fair share this series with the presence of Matthew Tkachuk. He’s only taken one and drawn one against the Flames in four regular season games, but expect that to change in a post-season environment.
Darnell Nurse leads the Oilers in bone-headed plays vs. the Flames this season with 3 penalties taken and zero drawn.
Shots From Afar
The Oilers’ bread and butter against the Flames this season has been shots from the point. While only three of sixteen goals against the Flames have gone in as clean slap shots, those shots tend to start enough chaos to lead to a rebound or tip-in goal.
Star Power
It’s undeniable that Leon Draisatl and Connor McDavid are premier talents in the NHL. It’s also pretty hard to deny that they do great work against the Flames. Former first overall pick, Ryan Nugent Hopkins has also produced well against the Flames over four regular season games.
Connor McDavid
3G 4A 7pts
Leon Draisatl
5G 6A 11pts
Ryan Nugent Hopkins
1G 4A 5pts
Counter to that, there are four Flames who produced at or above a point per game against the Oilers in the 21-22 season.
Johnny Gaudreau
1G 7A 8pts
Matthew Tkachuk
3G 5A 8pts
Elias Lindholm
3G 2A 5pts
Tyler Toffoli
2G 2A 4pts
Goalies
Then there are the goalies. Here’s where it gets a bit loosey goosey. Jacob Markstrom has made all four starts against the Oilers and hasn’t done remarkably well. (See: Leon Draisatl’s production)
Jacob Markstrom vs. The Oilers
2-2-0
Sv%: .884
GAA: 3.54
Not great. The Oilers have a tendency to play desparate hockey against the Flames and it shows on the scoreboard.
As for the Oilers, despite one game involving nine goals against and Mikko Koskinen getting chased; the tandem has held their own.
Mike Smith vs. The Flames
1-1-0
Sv%: .918
GAA: 3.81
Mikko Koskinen vs. The Flames
1-1-0
Sv%: .875
GAA: 4.61
Injury
One last key to the upcoming series. The toll of the stretch drive and round one. It was well publicized that Darnell Nurse started round one with a lower body injury. He stayed home for a road trip at the end of the season after his leg buckled during a corner battle with JT Compher of the Colorado Avalanche.
Leon Draisatl also sustained a highly publicized injury to his leg during the first round. He is currently nursing a high ankle sprain.
On the Flames side, Chris Tanev sustained a injury to his left leg when Michael Raffl fell on him during a sequence that resulted in a goal for the Stars forward. It looked like Raffl’s knee landed hard on the back of Tanev’s knee.
Tyler Toffoli and Matthew Tkachuk are suspected to be playing through something given their lack of production leading up to game seven.
Time will tell how this series plays out. It could be a sweep in either direction depending on who shows up. What is more likely is a bitter, six or seven game series full of hatred, dramatic escapes from the jaws of defeat— and the true purpose of the Stanley Cup playoffs—
Glory.
Trevor Neufeld
Statistics via naturalstattrick.com, nhl.com, dobberhockey.com, moneypuck.com and hockeyfights.com.
@Trevor_Neufeld
Calgary Flames Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»