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Contentious Predictions for Next Season That Do Not include the First Line

June 28, 2022, 9:58 PM ET [123 Comments]
Trevor Neufeld
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
50-21-11.

111 points.

First place in the Pacific Division. Sixth overall. Three +40 goal scorers. Starting goalie finishes second in Vezina voting (despite zero first place votes), head coach wins the Jack Adams.

You have to wonder whether the Calgary Flames will continue to improve after such a monumental bound forwards in on-ice quality.

The elephant in the room is that free agency lurks and the elite talent of Johnny Gaudreau, 115 points in 82 games last season, will hit the market on July 13 if Brad Treliving can’t find an agreeable figure to sign him to. Matthew Tkachuk needs a raise from seven million and Andrew Mangiapane is also an RFA after a 35 goal season.

Unfortunately, the emotions of the fanbase will remain in flux until news of a contract signings emerge.

So we’ll look at some (near) certainties and examine what isn’t really certain about them.

After all, there’s no point in worrying about what is out of your control. Unless you are a fan of professional sports.

Here are a few predictions that may come to pass about the team that is guaranteed to return to play for the 22-23 regular season.


A Trade for Luke Schenn Will Not Happen
Rumours had swirled up to the deadline that the Calgary Flames were pursuing a trade with the Vancouver Canucks for the 6’2 225lb right shot defender. Instead the only transaction between the teams was veteran center Brad Richardson being claimed off waivers after the Flames took the measure to clear cap space and a roster spot for a potential roster add.

Ryan Carpenter for a 5th notwithstanding, no major trade on deadline day was made and Richardson was off to join his former team as they pushed to gain ground on a playoff spot.

Still, when Elliott Friedman mentions multiple times that the Flames are more or less pushing for Luke Schenn— you consider it.

Perhaps they circle back. Perhaps they don’t— but consider this.

Treliving and Canucks President of Hockey Operations (widely considered to be the decision maker between himself and rookie general manager Patrik Allvin) have a history of failed trade negotiations going back to 2016. Treliving wanted to bring goaltender Marc Andre Fleury in from Pittsburgh. Rutherford, GM for the Penguins at the time, was rumoured to be demanding the Flames’ 6th overall pick.

That pick was used to draft Matthew Tkachuk and Rutherford ended up giving Vegas a second round pick to take Fleury’s contract. In hindsight, maybe Jim should have budged a bit on the price.

That leads one to assume the two are a tough match in terms of negotiating strategies.

And pardon the tin foil hat, but wouldn’t the cattiest response to escalated trade negotiations be claiming a depth player from the opposite team off waivers when they have less than 12 hours to replace him? It just seems like Jim Rutherford sees Brad Treliving as an impatient GM and feels it’s his right as a long seasoned, 73 year old executive to give Brad the gears and it’s escalated into a silent rivalry. Just an eight-year running hunch.

Ben Chiarot was also mentioned by Friedman in a January 22 32 Thoughts column as a player that Calgary was looking into acquiring. It’s entirely possible that the hefty return Montreal got for Chiarot led to Luke Schenn’s price being elevated too high for Flames General Manager Brad Treliving’s tastes.

To Florida
D Ben Chiarot

To Montreal
C Tyler Smilanic
2023 1st round pick
2022 4th round pick

Ben is a UFA and will likely sign something in the range Zadorov signed, but with extended term. A 4.5x4 mirroring Chris Tanev’s wouldn’t surprise anyone. Especially with the high demand for defensemen currently among NHL GMs. Bottom pairing guys like Derek Forbort, Dmitri Kulikov, Jérémy Lauzon, even the ghost of Travis Hamonic are getting paid in the 2-3.5 range.

If Treliving and Allvin/Rutherford can find a reasonable agreement, Schenn would fill Nikita Zadorov’s spot on the third pairing for a 850k cap hit. Perhaps giving up an asset would save valuable cap room that could be used elsewhere.


Kylington Sinks, Swims or Ships
It’s fully possible that after the smoke has cleared from re-signing Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk and Andrew Mangiapane, Oliver Kylington and his 31 points in 73 games last season becomes a cap casualty. The 25 year old RFA could recoup some of the draft capital given up for Tyler Toffoli, Calle Jarnkrok and Ryan Carpenter.

Going to Calgary
RW Tyler Toffoli
C/W Calle Jarnkrok (50% retained)
C Ryan Carpenter

Going to Montreal, Seattle, or Chicago
2022 1st Round Pick
2022 2nd Round Pick (FLA)
2022 3rd Round Pick
2023 5th Round Pick
2024 5th Round Pick
2024 7th Round Pick
Emil Heineman (former 2020 2nd round pick)

That’s a lotta mozzarella.

Worse is that of those three acquisitions, only one remains under contract for next year. That being Toffoli.

Thankfully, the Flames still have their first and second round picks next year in what is expected to be a very strong draft year, but you still have to feel for their scouting staff. They’ve made day two of the draft fun with their late selections. Andrew Mangiapane, Rory Kerins, Mattias Emilio Pettersen and Dustin Wolf picked after round five make one wonder if they gave up the chance to draft another compelling long shot or two in the next couple drafts. Even ignoring the higher picks, that much draft capital is going hurt when hindsight factors in.

427-E4556-57-D8-4-DC5-923-D-C6-E6-D70-C91-B3
Four of nine Flames picks between rounds 3-5 remain with the organization.

With that said, Oliver Kylington is poised to either take a major step forward or a major step backward. His defence partner, Chris Tanev, sustained a bevy of injuries during the playoffs. If Chris recovers from surgery and finds his game has been affected negatively; expect Oliver’s statistics to regress as well.

Injuries Sustained by Chris Tanev Late 21-22
Torn labrum(surgery), separated shoulder, sprained neck

The counter-thought to that is that Oliver continues to acclimate to the NHL and his fluent skating ability becomes more prominent as the next season progresses.

Possible, but with the more physical Connor Mackey pushing for a spot next year one wonders whether it might be beneficial to recoup some picks.


The Depth Takes a Step Forward
It doesn’t take a pro scout to see how exhausted the Tampa Bay Lightning are after two consecutive Cup runs.

Blake Coleman was on that bus for two years. It’s hard to argue any Lightning players beyond Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevski worked harder than the net-driving winger over that time.

An extended summer will do him well. It was clear as the season went on this year that Blake was feeling some residual effects of those two Cup runs. Especially in the first half.

Blake Coleman Oct 12-Jan 1
GP: 28
G: 4
A: 3
Pts: 7

The depth as a whole needed the time off. Mangiapane’s wrist had an ongoing issue late into the season, Tyler Toffoli clearly wasn’t healthy posting four goals in his final 27 regular season games, the defence core was banged up beyond the injuries to Tanev, Kylington and Zadorov that were disclosed, and obviously Markstrom needed a health reset after the .848 save percentage he posted in his five games against Edmonton.

Whether the first line remains intact starting next season, the Flames depth is likely due for a stronger season this year.


Vladar Runs as a Starter After Markstrom Goes on LTIR and Comes Up Short
It’s nice seeing Jacob Markstrom post a career high in games played, 63, but the fact of the matter is that injury follows the 6’6” goaltender like a hungry stray following a drunk college student wielding a fresh foot long meatball sub on their way back to their dorm.

The giant Swede had played 43 games each of the two seasons prior and found himself injured in both campaigns. It’s not a matter of “if” but a matter of “when”.

So, the question is: Will Daniel Vladar be able to step up and take the role of starter when Markstrom needs time on LTIR next season?

Time will tell. Dustin Wolf, fresh off of winning the Baz Bastien Memorial Award for best goaltender during the 21-22 AHL season is seemingly ready to challenge not only for a backup position— but as starter should Markstrom’s knee issues resurface.

Flames are closer to a goalie controversy than the fans expect and the head coach would prefer.

Andrew Mangiapane Prices Himself Out of Calgary
With 35 goals over 82 games, it’s hard to not price out Andrew Mangiapane already. Whatever he signs to will likely be in the 5.75-6.5 salary range.

Even more encouraging is that the tenacious left wing showed he is capable of scoring most of those goals over a more condensed amount of time.

Andrew Mangiapane
Oct 12-Mar 4
GP: 53
G: 29
A: 12
Pts: 41

Mar 5-Apr 30
GP: 29
G: 6
A: 8
Pts: 14

Consistency generally comes with experience. There’s a case to be made that Andrew Mangiapane has the ability to hit +40 goals and +70 points despite the possibility of being relegated to the second powerplay unit once again. In fact, he recorded only 11 points on the powerplay. Eight of those being goals.

Even if the Toronto native simply finds a successful routine on special teams; he’s set for a +70 point season.

The counterpoint to that may be that Andrew Mangiapane sits in what one writer refers to as the Martin Havlat Wheelhouse.

Havlat spent the first four years of his career well insulated from first line duties due to the sheer dominance established by Ottawa’s first line of either Hossa-Spezza-Alfredsson or Alfredsson-Spezza-Heatley. Havlat needed three seasons to start finding tangible power play success.

Here’s a look a look at Havlat’s power play production in the early half of his career. You’ll see a massive drop in 06-07 when he takes on a first unit role.

946-EE020-A19-C-47-A7-A8-E0-60-C3-EA6-D9-C05

You can see a similar underwhelming lead-up for Mangiapane despite high even strength point totals in a very similar place in the lineup with similar second power play placement.


For fun let’s entertain a trade scenario for Mangiapane.

To New Jersey
LW Andrew Mangiapane

To Calgary
2022 2nd overall pick

This puts a minor reset on the Flames’ current trajectory. It’s made even less likely given Gaudreau has six days after the draft, July 6, to deliberate on whether he’ll re-sign by the June 13 UFA cutoff.

Still, it’s compelling. The Flames could draft Juraj Slafkovský or Logan Cooley to compliment a burgeoning prospect list. This gets the Flames out of around six million in cap and opens up some options. Let alone if the Canadiens decide not to draft Shane Wright.

The Devils have been rumoured to be shopping #2 since a day after the draft lottery. It could be GM Tom Fitzgerald wants results sooner than later.

Will Mangiapane pop off this year? It seems very likely. Will he leave to take on greater responsibilities? Will he continue to score at a similar rate on a less successful team that can afford him if he signs elsewhere?


What are your thoughts on how the Flames do next season? Will they find a way to assert themselves physically without one of Zadorov, Gudbrabson, Lucic or any combination of them leaving? Will Mangiapane outscore his previous 35 goal total? Will he start to find power play success? Can Daniel Vladar maintain a winning record if Markstrom goes on LTIR? Is Oliver Kylington expendable, and if so, what would you want in return?


A Last Note
The Memorial Cup Final takes place on Wednesday. Third round selection Jeremie Poirier has been absolutely dominant. You owe it to yourself to tune in. Also on that squad is his defence partner and Flames second round pick Yan Kuznetzov as well as Ryan Francis who it is disputed whether the Flames dumped him or he dumped the Flames. Regardless, he’s a 20 year old, 5’9” UFA. His ability to change status is merely due to his time in the AHL due to COVID circumstances.


Trevor Neufeld


@Trevor_Neufeld


Stats via naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, and nhl.com.
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