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Quick Hits: ADB Rumor, Backup Goalie, TIFH |
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Quick Hits: July 4, 2022
1) According to Elliotte Friedman's most recent 32 Thoughts, the Philadelphia Flyers are "one of the teams that have legitimately pitched Chicago on [Alex] DeBrincat — more than just tire-kicking — and they’ve tested the market on many of their players." I would personally be very leery of paying the reported price tag on DeBrincat, which has been rumored to be two first round picks and a projected NHL roster player.
This is not a slight on DeBrincat's abilities. At age 24, DeBrincat is already a two-time 40-plus goal scorer in the NHL and has three separate 30-plus goal seasons in the NHL. I'm also not unduly worried that his scoring numbers would drop precipitously away from playing with Patrick Kane. He might not approach 40 goals but he's capable of 30 regardless.
This is my No. 1 concern with DeBrincat's acquisition cost: the significant risk of losing the player within two seasons. His 2022-23 salary cap hit ($6.4 million) masks the fact that his real-dollar salary of $9 million next season will require a $9 million qualifying offer when he becomes a restricted free agent in the summer of 2023. He is a potential unrestricted free agent after the 2023-24 season, when he will be 26.
DeBrincat holds all the leverage here. He is under no obligation to sign an extension. A year from now, whatever kind of season he has individually, he can simply accept his $9 million qualifying offer and walk after the following season. Alternatively, if he has a big year, he can file for arbitration and seek a one-year award for a higher amount. Either way, if DeBrincat wants to test the open market come 2024, there is nothing his team can do to prevent that.
Ask yourself this: Why would the Blackhawks even make DeBrincat available this offseason in the first place? The same reason as above. Chicago is unlikely to be a contender again in the near term. While I think the Flyers have a chance to improve from their disastrous 2021-22 season, it's not realistic to believe that, in a single year, they can close the enormous gap between where they are right and where the contending teams in the Eastern Conference are roster-wise. To do it within two years isn't impossible but would require a whole of things to go right between now and then.
To gamble two first-round picks, including the No. 5 this year, on improving enough in the relatively short window of time they'd have to convince DeBrincat to pre-empt UFA status after the 2023-24 seems borderline reckless and contrary to adding higher-end system depth. It's not hard to imagine DeBrincat and his agent playing the "we'll wait and see" card throughout the 2023-24 season and his signability hanging over everyone's head as the All-Star break passes and the trade deadline approaches.
There are also other reasons why I'd be leery of seeing the Flyers go all in on a trade for DeBrincat:
* Given the very uncertain status of Ryan Ellis this offseason and what happened last year, the Flyers seriously need to consider focusing on the top of their blueline rotation. This is doubly true because Travis Sanheim is a potential unrestricted free agent after the 2022-23 season. While the Flyers could certainly use a goal-scoring winger, especially given the fact that the team could be without Joel Farabee for the first month of the season, solidifying the blueline is still the bigger priority, in my opinion.
So, too, is center. There's a reasonable degree of confidence that Sean Couturier and Kevin Hayes have much healthier 2022-23 seasons. There's hope that Morgan Frost (or Scott Laughton, if he plays center rather than wing) step up as the 3C under first-year coach John Tortorella. Are any of these things guaranteed? No. The Flyers may end up having to cross their fingers that things work out down the middle but that's not a comforting feeling on July 4.
* Roster mix: If the Flyers add the 5-foot-7 DeBrincat to the existing roster, he'd be part of a group of wingers that presently includes the 5-foot-8 Cam Atkinson, potentially includes (if he doesn't start the season in the AHL or dealt as part of a DeBrincat deal) the 5-foot-8 Bobby Brink and the 5-foot-10 Travis Konecny (if not traded). A team can win with a couple undersized players but four starting wingers that small would create matchup issues.
On the flip side, DeBrincat would help in terms of his ability to exit the defensive zone with possesion of the puck if the defenseman makes an accurate first pass.
2) Given the uncertainty over the availability of goaltender Ivan Fedotov for the 2022-23 season-- the most seemingly credible update is that he is physically OK after a one-day hospitalization and has been sent to a military training base in Severodvinsk but is unlikely to be sent to combat in Ukraine, and could actually continue to train and play hockey over the next year but will not be allowed to leave Russia during that time -- the Flyers could end up being in the market after all for a veteran NHL backup goalie.
3) July 4 Alumni birthday: Mike Knuble
Two-stint power forward Mike Knuble was born July 4, 1972 in Toronto to Latvian-born American parents. He was raised in Kentwood, Michigan near Grand Rapids. The well-liked player's personal background and career are a great American Dream tale.
Drafted by the Detroit Red Wings in the fourth round (76th overall) of the 1991 NHL Draft, Knuble went to college at the University of Michigan and made the Grand Rapids area his permanent home. He always represented the USA in international hockey play, despite his dual citizenship.
Knuble's NHL career was very unique. He was of the NHL's ultimate late-bloomers. Knuble scored 228 of his career 278 regular season NHL goals from age 30 onward.
After signing with the Flyers as a free agent on July 3, 2004, his Flyers debut was delayed by a year-long NHL work stoppage that forced the cancellation of the 2004-05 season. When play resumed in 2005-06, Knuble began a stretch of scoring between 27 to 34 goals in all four of his seasons in Philadelphia during his first stint (2005-06 to 2008-09). During his first two seasons, Knuble was the right wing on a highly successful line with veteran superstar Peter Forsberg and blossoming star Simon Gagne.
Off the ice, Knuble was a locker room leader and one of the NHL's most articulate and analytical players. He was a galvanizing player both among younger and peer-aged teammates.
Knuble spent the 2009-10 to 2011-12 seasons with the Washington Capitals, adding seasons of 29 and 24 goals to his remarkable late-career resume. During the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Knuble returned to Philadelphia for a second stint. In the final game of his NHL career, the soon to retire forward dressed for a 2-1 road win over the Ottawa Senators on April 27, 2013.
Following his retirement, Knuble became an assistant coach for the AHL's Grand Rapids Griffins and also did some coaching with USA Hockey.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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