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Quick Hit: Contract Efficiency Rating, Rumor, Huby CGY Deal |
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An article from
The Athletic made its rounds earlier this week where they looked around the league and graded each team based on their contract efficiency.
There are a number of rules/factors that were considered when grading each team (so make sure to read the Athletic’s article for all the details), but as the article states:
“The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table and how likely will they provide positive value over the life of the contract.
The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s GSVA and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract. Surplus value compares what they make with what the model believes they should be making, while positive value probability measures the certainty that a player will perform above his cap hit. Every contract grade is based on those two factors (with twice as much weight being placed on surplus value) looking outward. What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered in this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.”
I’ll spoil it for you and let you know that the Panthers were ranked #1 in the league with a solid A. I know…it sounds kind of crazy given the current cap situation, but when you read the explanation, it makes some sense.
For example:
“The Panthers have more to love here than just Tkachuk’s deal. Aleksander Barkov may not be underrated anymore, but even at $10 million he’s underpaid. Aaron Ekblad still has three years left on a deal he has definitely grown into. And then there’s the team’s under-the-radar support system that has found another level in Florida. Anthony Duclair, Carter Verhaeghe and Gustav Forsling have been found money on this team and are on very modest deals as difference makers. That gives the Panthers six A-level contracts; the highest total in the league.”
The article’s section on the Cats is short and sweet, so I definitely recommend reading it. It may put some things in perspective or make you more angry. Either way, it’s bound to be a point of conversation/contention amongst fans.
Rumor
No clue how they would make this work, and I know it will be a hot debate, but what would you guys think of Kessel as a Panther (swipe right)?
The big splash signings will come next year (hopefully on the blueline) when Yandle/Hornqvist’s contracts are off the books, but until then it feels like we’ll see rumors of aging veterans who could be got for cheap potentially added to the upcoming season roster.
Phil is cool in my book. I just don’t see this one happening.
Lastly
Congrats to Huby on getting the big deal he undoubtedly was looking for. That’s a spicy meatball of a contract (8-year, $10.5MM AAV), and I’m personally glad Florida went the direction they did to trade for Tkachuk and do his contract, but props to Huby on the payday.
Is this sort of the Calgary version of the Bob contract?
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