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Flames Come Up Short Against Red Wings — Observations

February 10, 2023, 7:52 PM ET [22 Comments]
Trevor Neufeld
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
What a hit by Nikita Zadorov.



In my full contact days, my defence partner and I had a play in the pocket. The defenceman on the far side of the puck carrier calls out “switch!”. The puck-side defenceman feigns a pinch while favouring his stick to the outside. The forward usually takes the bait and cuts inside.

The results are hilarious. The far side defenceman flies diagonally up the blind spot and into the puck carrier. You get a turnover and a massive hit out of it if it works, but sometimes it’s just feathers from the puck carrier and they take a disrupted 2-on-1.

You hit a certain skill level where it loses viability, but we’ve seen that suggestion is not entirely concrete in the last two games. At some point instincts take over and a timely pinch can set you up. An intuitive forechecker or defender can force the puck carrier into a dangerous spot.

Walman
The guy getting hit is Jake Walman, who used to be on a D pairing with Flames prospect John Gilmour at Providence College. Also on that team? Mark Jankowski, Jon Gillies, and Kevin Rooney.

Walman is finally breaking out at age 26. He’s on pace for 10 goals as a defenceman. Here’s hoping he’s back on his feet in no time.

Rough Night for Some
Trevor Lewis failed to stay with Dylan Larkin on the first goal against. Ruzicka did the same on the second goal against. Sometimes all it takes is a couple mistakes to lose momentum. Michael Stone had a rough game as well. Oskar Sundqvist and Filip Zadina completed two passes as if Stone wasn’t on the ice in the sequence leading to the second Detroit goal.

Major Major Major Major
Dennis Gilbert looked like a fit once again. It says a lot about the head coach’s thoughts on where Connor Mackey’s game is at — both defencemen are left shots. Connor is in a tough place at this point in his career. He needs ice time to get his game up to NHL quality, but can’t play at NHL quality enough to earn ice time.

Ten games since being placed on waivers means Gilbert will have to clear waivers again if the team wants him to get time in the AHL.

Hunting Pelts
Is it just me or does Pelletier already look like the best passer on the Flames?

Bertuzzi Doesn’t Look Healthy
The 27 year old was getting knocked off his skates with very little effort. His instincts may pot a few goals, but he won’t be doing much for you when the playoffs start. Hard pass at the deadline if he’s bringing what he brought last night.

Fancy Stats
A lot of people are saying goals for/against percentage above expected (xGF%) according to various models is the cutting edge of advanced statistics. In my opinion, those people worship the math a little too much.

The Flames are in 7th place in xGF% at 53.21%, but struggle to beat basement teams in regulation this season. Its up to you whether you buy the narrative that the team is playing better than their results indicate.

Last night’s game was a microcosm of this effect. The Flames finished the night with a 53.03 xGF% and lost the game 2-1. Their Corsi was absolutely dominant. They out-attempted the Red Wings 51-23 at 5v5.

Even more absurd was the Dube-Lindholm-Toffoli line. 19-2 in shot attempts, 7-1 in shots, and 1-1 in high danger opportunities. Zero goals to show for it.

The Slot
The Flames had an odd perimeter game against the Red Wings. You watch those power plays and almost no one forces a shot from the middle. The Red Wings coaching staff clearly caught on to that.

We saw multiple Flames power plays where Detroit forwards simply played tight to the Flames player at the top of the umbrella formation. You can only keep your forwards that high up when the slot is dependably vacant.

Calgary ended the game with four shots and two high danger chances over three power plays. Brutal.

Where is the Love?
Amongst the turmoil on the big team, we have an affiliate that appears to dominate. Mitch Love has coached the AHL team to a 76-27-7 record over the last two seasons.

At some point as a coach you have to credit the scouting department for giving you the players you have — but how much longer does Mitch Love coach affiliate hockey before he’s given an opportunity at the NHL level? He won’t stay at the top of the American Hockey League’s standings forever.

Goalies
Daniel Vladar finally lost a game in regulation. His first regulation loss in 14 games.

Lalonde’s Opine
From February 10, 2012 until the end of the season, the LA Kings put up a 14-8-4 record and .611 points percentage. That seems very relatable.

They squeezed their way into the playoffs and went on to go 16-4-0 in the playoff en route to their first Stanley Cup.

Red Wings head coach, Derek Lalonde, in an interview with the Fan 960 yesterday mentioned that Detroit’s pro scouts identified the Flames as potentially dangerous in a playoff format. He believes that the team was custom-built for an extended run.

Later that day, we saw Calgary outplay Detroit by most metrics, yet look utterly toothless with the possession they generated.

The question is, how much fine-tuning is needed here? Would a new coach get more out of this roster? How about shaking the lines up again?


Trevor Neufeld


@Trevor_Neufeld


Stats via naturalstattrick.com, nhl.com, moneypuck.com and capfriendly.com.
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