FOERSTER ON THE CUSP
Flyers right winger Tyson Foerster has dressed in 14 of the regular season's first 15 games. The only game he sat out was the opener in Columbus. To date, the rookie is still looking for his first goal of the season. He has chipped in three assists. Foerster has averaged 15:15 of ice time per game.
As a result, a portion of the fan base is growing impatient with the 21-year-old forward. He raised hopes last season by having a strong overall AHL season with the Phantoms and producing seven points (3g, 4a) in eight NHL games with the Flyers during a late-season recall.
My take on Foerster's season to date is nuanced. At its root, though, it boils down to this: If you dig a little bit beneath the surface -- first-level thinking of going only by point totals can easily lead you astray -- and really look at the player's game, you'll see that Foerster is making progress in a variety of areas.
* I would not have said this if Foerster's last nine games stayed on the same exact course as his first five. In fact, in the first five games, I thought that some were laying it on just a bit too thick about how well Foerster was playing. He needed more offensive push than he showed at first.
Yes, he was winning more 50-50 battles than he lost. Yes, he was heavy on the puck and garnering some takeaways. Yes, he was backchecking diligently and being responsible in not cheating out of the D zone too early.
But something he was NOT doing was getting to the scoring areas. It wasn't just that he was passing up open shots, which he did a few times despite building his prospect stock as a shoot-first player. Foerster actually is an underrated passer, too, even if his shot is his best offensive asset.
The real problem was this: In his first five games, at least by Natural Stat Trick calculations, he had eight shots on goal but only one high-danger individual scoring chance.
In short, Foerster was playing like a fourth-line NHL player. A good one, who does the little things right, but not a top-line producer. That's not who he needs to be. First and foremost, he was drafted and developed to be a goal-scorer. He can score on one-timers from near the dots. He can score from the slots. He can be the one who buries a rebound or scores in a scramble. In the first five games, the scoring chances simply weren't there, even as he was tried with several linemates and given power play time.
If Foerster kept playing in that fashion, I would been among those calling to send him down to Lehigh Valley until he recovered his offensive game. However, that has NOT been the case over the last nine games. He's been very involved.
* In most of the last nine games, Foerster has been getting himself to the scoring areas with increased frequency. He hasn't been burying his chances -- too many are still being blocked or missing the net. However, step one of working out of an offensive drought involves getting back to being in the middle of more scoring chances. The payoff may still take time and may be started by a puck-luck type of goal going in the net. Then the player can relax and just play once the first one finally goes in.
Some supporting numbers: Over his last nine games, Foerster leads all Flyers players with 25 individual scoring chances at 5-on-5. That includes 15 high-danger chances. Extend the numbers to his shifts on power play, and you'll find a additional three individual scoring chances, with two of them from high-danger areas.
Right now, Foerster is simply trying to be too fine with his finishing opportunities. Just get them on the net and they'll start to go in. Don't double-clutch and lose the chance. Don't try to make a perfect shot.
* Last but not least, Foerster, like many goal-scoring wingers tends to score in bunches but also be prone to some extended dry spells. It's been that way for him in the AHL. Even back in junior hockey, there was some streakiness to his scoring patterns. He's in a "snakebitten" spell in the NHL. It's not the end of the world. Just keep getting to the dots and down, hashmarks and in, and patrolling around the net, too. It'll happen, and start going in with some frequency.
In the meantime, Foerster is still doing all of the little things well he was doing in the first five games. If anything, he's been winning more pucks and helping to create or prolong possession opportunities.
The key now is to just stay patient. It would not surprise me in the slightest if, by this time next week, Foerster has his first several goals of the season and a couple more assists sprinkled in, too. He's right on the cusp.
FROST AND THE PLIGHT OF THE PLAYMAKER
I have already said my piece several times on the scratching of Morgan Frost in six of the season's first eight games. In a nutshell, I though his overall body of work in leading the Flyers in scoring over the latter 2/3 of last season (Dec. 9 to the end of season, 56 games), growing as a two-way player (which John Tortorella himself pointed out), and leading the Flyers in preseason scoring amid a strong camp should have earned him more leeway that one so-so and one subpar game getting him scratched game after game until October 30.
I also didn't buy totally into Torts' reasoning that "Frost wasn't playing bad, but others were playing better." Based on the season's first two games -- apples to apples, not based on the batch of games where Frost was out -- Tortorella's statement was half-true. Others played better.... and some played comparably or worse. Owen TIppett had one of the worst games of his Flyers career amid the teamwide debacle in Ottawa, as did Noah Cates. Actually, except for the fourth line, the entire Flyers team was lousy in the Ottawa game.
Starting with the home opener against Vancouver, the Flyers strung together a series of games where they generally played well enough to win (or at least give themselves a chance to win an up-for-grabs game). Throughout this stretch, a legitimate case could be made for not changing the forward lineup, even though I disagreed with it.
I actually had a MUCH bigger issue with Frost being scratched in San Jose this past Monday than him not dressing against Edmonton, Dallas or Vegas. I'll point out, though, that the aforementioned Dec. 9, 2022, game was one in Vegas. Frost didn't record a point but was involved in six scoring chances: three on the set up end, and three on the potential scoring side. The next game, in Arizona, was where the rewards started coming (one goal, three assists) but you could feel it coming if you were paying attention to the prior match. First-level thinking in hockey is where points are the one and only basis for judgement.
I discussed Foerster above. Now I'll talk about Frost.
Over the three-game span between the Flyers' match against Carolina and the home-and-home set with Buffalo, Frost was directly involved in creating seven high-danger changes for linemates, with Foerster and Konecny being the potential finisher.
VS. CAROLINA
VS. BUFFALO
AT BUFFALO
All of these plays are examples of strong playmaking. Alas, the plight of the playmaker is such that he's reliant on the player he set up for the scoring chance to finish the play with a goal. In this series of plays -- plus two other for which no embeddable clip is conveniently available, but one can be
seen here with a caption reading "Konecny shoots on Frost feed in 3rd-- the playmaker did his part but the shooter wasn't quite able to finish. It happens.
So do after-the-fact scoring changes. On this play in the game in Buffalo, Frost and Egor Zamula were originally credited with assists on a Louie Belpedio goal. The play was deemed to be a Frost shot attempt that was blocked by defenseman Henri Jokiharju and rebounded directly to goal-scorer Belpedio.
Was a bit of puck luck involved? Damn right. More than a bit, actually. But that's how the bounces go. Sometimes they go against you. Sometimes they help you out.
Later that evening, through, the NHL's off-ice officials changed the scoring on the play to an unassisted goal for Belpedio. The reason: the blocked shot credited to Jokiharju was changed to a giveaway off an intercepted shot/pass. As a result, the assists to Frost and Zamula were subtracted due to a change of puck possession.
The ruling could have gone either way, to be honest. One angle looks like a blocked shot that bounced the Flyers way. Another angle seemed to show more direct (albeit momentary) control by Jokiharju. Still, it seemed like a pretty harsh giveaway to charge to Jokiharju and take away two players' assists in the process. The goal itself, was never in dispute.
In the Flyers home shutout loss to LA, no one -- including Frost -- was able to create much offense. Frost did have one scoring chance (a power play tip on net from just outside the crease) but in which goalie Cam Talbot made the save.
Over the four-game stretch, apart from creating chances, Frost also played strong defensive hockey. Again, Tortorella himself pointed out that much. Still, the coach said, he needed "to see more offensively from Frost." And THAT was where I strongly took issue, especially as others began reciting ithat line like it was gospel.
Listen, I have a ton of respect for John Tortorella. But there's never been a coach with whom I've agreed with one hundred percent of the time. No one is right all the time. It's my opinion that Torts undervalued Mats Zucccarello when he coached the player in New York -- the player's subsequent career has given credence to the belief that Tortorella should have used the player more often and higher in the lineup. I have had the same view of Tortorella's lukewarm-at-best assessments of Frost. I also don't think it's a total coincidence that there are some basic similarities their games: smallish/small finesse players.
Anyway, if the video evidence to the contrary was not convincing -- it's easy to cherrypick a few highlights-- the
underlying numbers provide statistical backup for the four-game stretch.
Over the four games of Frost's return to the lineup, Frost was on the ice for a 31 Flyers scoring chances and 15 opposing scoring chances, a 63.82 percent of expected goals, 0 actual goals against (and just 1.58 expected goals against versus 2.75 expected goals for at 5-on-5). The only thing "wrong" with this stretch was that Flyers couldn't hit the net. They shot a mere 8.7 percent (Belpedio's goal and a Konecny unassisted breakaway goal).
Broader context: Over those four games, no Flyers players was directly involved in more scoring chances than Frost. He was just about the LAST player who should have been scratched in San Jose .
The fact that the Flyers lost, 2-1, to the lowly Sharks didn't help. Nor did Tortorella's shrug and curt "no" reply when the head coach asked by The Athletic's Kevin Kurz if it was a hard decision to sit the player against San Jose.
To his credit, Tortorella apologized the next day. Whether it was because Torts himself realized that his abrupt dismissal of the question sounded bad or because someone such Danny Briere pointed it out, doesn't matter. Tortorella appropriately walked back the comment and said it's not something he takes casually when removing a player. However, he reiterated the justification that Frost had played well defensively but not offensively in his four games back, which was flat out not backed either by the eye test or the numbers.
Frost returned to the lineup one game later in Anaheim. The underlying numbers were OK but, by my eye test, it was a pretty uneven night.
Frost played a decent game in various aspects (12-for-16 on faceoffs, continued to play fairly defensively minus a forced turnover and a failed clear, etc). Offensively, Frost had one scoring chance. He didn't create much for his linemates by way of high-grade setups. He also took a bad retaliatory cross-checking penalty in the second period with the momentum already starting to turn after the Ducks cut into the Flyers lead. Fortunately, the PK stepped up for the kill.
In the third period, Frost was finally credited with his first point of the season (that was not subsequently taken away by a scoring change). On the play, he challenged a neutral zone passing lane. The attempted Anaheim pass went off Frost toward the opposite side boards. There, Owen Tippett picked up the puck and made a tremendous individual effort to go around Frank Vatrano, take the puck to the house and score.
Officially, Frost was given the lone assist on the goal. Remember what I said about puck luck? This wasn't an assist in the pure sense. It was a deflected puck that a teammate got to first and then scored on a great solo play.
Basically, though, the excessively generous scoring of this play balanced off the deduction of an assist in Buffalo. One taken away, one added. The breaks even out in terms of the judgment of off-ice officials.
That takes us to Saturday's rematch with the Kings in Los Angeles. Frost scored his first two goals of the season. No, I wasn't overjoyed that a player I've fiercely defended to doubters scored a goal. If you know me at all, you know that I'm not someone who typically gets too high or too low.
My whole thing with Frost is this (and no, I don't think he's a superstar and he's not my "hero" or any of the other garbage people spew). But he's the Flyers only true playmaking center and, along with Bobby Brink, one of just two forwards on the team that I would describe as an above-average playmaker.
He needs to play regularly and with skilled wingers. That's the sum of it. I will, however, take issue with folks who act like he's not a bonafide middle-six NHL forward. I'll also shake my head when double standards (as I perceive them) are applied. That goes for every player. It just get applied more with Frost because he's a player in whom I've always -- unfailingly, since the 2016-17 OHL season -- had the ability to become a productive NHL player if put in position to succeed rather than set up to fail. Mine became a minority opinion, but that's fine.
Rightly or wrongly, I believe there have been stretches of Frost's career where his usage and linemates were not putting him in position to succeed. Put him with skilled linemates, such as Konecny and TIppett (or Foerster, in the bigger picture), and I'll be as critical of Frost as anyone if he fails to be among the team leaders in generating offense.
At any rate, yes, Frost scored two goals in LA. The first was a puck luck goal. Frost made a nice initial play as Cam Talbot overcommitted to the near-side post and Frost swooped around the net. The finish on the play -- not a true wraparound by a seeming attempted pass to Tippett that went off a defenseman's skate and into the net -- was a lucky bounce.
Later in the second period, Frost scored again. Let's break this play down by video.
On the play, Frost sets up shop outside just outside the crease. Why was he able to do that? Because Konecny took the puck around the wall and fed it to open point man Nick Seeler. Ordinarily, it would be Frost making the play to move around and feed the puck to the point. Here, Konecny did the work for him. That enable Frost to set up in front.
Now, pay attention to the play Seeler makes. He put the puck perfectly to the net, low and deflection-friendly. If the shot comes in high or wide or too hot the handle, Frost wouldn't have been able to deflect it. The way it was delivered, though, Frost could use his hand-eye coordination to re-direct the puck. From there, Talbot had no chance.
This goal was very much a combined effort, not an individual tally. I've heard some folks saying, "This play is a good example of what Torts WANTS Frost to do, and what he doesn't do very often."
To that, I say "Time out, here." Although Frost is capable of scoring some goals -- he didn't tally 19 last season by accident -- he was, is, and will always be a distributor first. The Flyers now have an abundance of shoot-first players at various levels. At the NHL level, Tippett and Foerster are shoot-first types. Konecny is a good shooter. Cutter Gauthier, who is extremely shoot-first oriented is playing at the collegiate level. There's a hybrid shoot/pass prospect in Matvei Michkov playing in the KHL.
What the Flyers need to go with the shooters is good distributors. You can already see the chemistry that's developed between Brink and Joel Farabee, with Brink more commonly in the setup role. Many of Tippett's best games (and Foerster's) as a Flyers came with Frost setting him up. Konecny can play well with a variety of linemates, but there's chemistry with Frost that simply hasn't ended up in the net too often this month but would produce numbers in tandem if just let be and not tinkered with.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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