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The Toronto Maple Leafs enter their best-of-seven series against the Boston in preparation for Game 1 of their first-round series against the Bruins on Saturday night as an underdog, not only because of the domination the Beantowners have had against the Leafs in the regular season (seven straight wins), but also because Toronto’s core group has lost to the Bruins in 2018 and 2019.
Will 2024 be any different?
Over the past two days, we’ve broken down the matchup by position, with Boston having a sizable advantage in goal and a slight advantage on defense. Up front, the Bruins have one of the best scorers in the NHL in David Pastrnak (110 points) and the league’s premier pest in Brad Marchand, two solid centers in Pavel Zacha (21 goals) and Charlie Coyle (25 goals), and decent scoring depth in Jake Debrusk, Trent Frederic, Morgan Geekie, Danton Heinen, and former Leaf James van Riemsdyk.
The Bruins forward strength will be their tenacity and physicality, with Marchand being his annoying best at all times, and forwards like deadline addition Pat Maroon, and former Marlie Justin Brazeau using their size to their advantage.
Toronto should have the advantage up the middle, with Auston Matthews and John Tavares matching up against Zacha and Coyle, but whether that comes to pass in this series will be the difference between it being competitive or not. The Leafs scored 303 goals this season, with Matthews accounting for almost one-quarter of their offense. The shifting of Tyler Bertuzzi and Max Domi to the top line had the effect of spreading out the offense to three lines, providing a matchup issue to the Bruins, but that may not be present in Game 1, depending on the availability of William Nylander.
Without Nylander’s 40 goals, the Leafs will not only need the remaining core players to pick up the slack, they will need contributions from secondary sources like Matthew Knies, Nick Robertson, and the recently returned Calle Jarnkrok.
Grade – Slight Advantage Leafs
Prediction
When looking at a series, if you say ‘if this happens, and that happens, and that happens’ too many times, it is not going to happen. If Ilya Samsonov plays like he did from mid-January to early April, and not the guy who could not make a save the first half of the season and his last two starts, the Leafs have a chance.
Defensively, if the Leafs can be physical and keep the Bruins forwards from the front of the net, and also inflict some crunching checks on Boston’s top forward, they have a chance.
Up front, if Matthews, Marner, Tavares, and Nylander (if available) produce, if the power play breaks out of their lengthy slump, if they get some secondary scoring, and Ryan Reaves strikes fear in the hearts of the Bruins, the Leafs have a chance.
Will all these things fall into place? Probably not.
Bruins in 7
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Nylander’s status for Game 1 is shrouded in mystery. TSN’s Chris Johnston reported that the injury issue is not something he played through down the stretch, but something that sprung up on Thursday. If Nylander does not play, Nick Robertson is expected to take his place on the third line with Pontus Holmberg and Calle Jarnkrok.
TJ Brodie will not play and instead, Simon Benoit will partner with Jake McCabe, Morgan Rielly and Ilya Lyubushkin, and Joel Edmundson and Timothy Liljegren will make up the other pairings.
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • 
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