The Rangers and the Capitals meet for the 10th time in the postseason, but for the first time since Derek Stepan's overtime goal defeated Washington in 2015. New York cruised through the regular season, becoming the first team to lock up a playoff berth, then clinching the division, conference and President's Trophy at 55-23-4. As such, they will have home ice advantage for as long as they are in the postseason. Washington looked dead and buried in January, but rallied, especially in March to squeak into the playoffs on the last day of the season. Game 1, Sunday, 3pm, MSG.
Extras:
Healthy scratch: Jonny Brodzinski, Zac Jones, Chad Ruhwedel
LTIR: Filip Chytil, Blake Wheeler
The above is how the team closed the season and practiced this week.That doesn't mean that this will be how they line up in Game 1 but I am projecting that what we have seen is what we see Sunday, irrespective of the possible change we know could be made. I am projecting that for down the road, but not initially, as I will discuss below.
Zibanejad struggled 5x5 most of the season, racking up 31 of his 74 points on the man-advantage. He still is used in all situations and doesn't receive enough credit for his defensive work. Kreider has become an all-situations player as well. He is paired with Zib shorthanded while still being a master at net front presence and deflections, especially on the PP.. The 75 points - 39 goals, 36 assists - are two off his career-high for 2021-22. He is less of a physical presence than he once was, which has drawn the ire of some Rangers' fans. Roslovic was brought in at the deadline to try and fill the revolving door that existed all season at right wing. He got off to a good start, but was benched April 7 and went four straight games without registering a point. This line was at their best the final two games of the regular season, lending home they have figured it out. If a change in personnel is made, it will be here.
Panarin, the Bread Man, delivered all year. Rebounding from last year's playoff debacle - two points in seven games against NJ - Panarin got off to a strong start and never faltered, finishing with career-bests in goals, 49, assists, 71, and points, 120 and should finish in the top-five of the Hart Trophy voting. All the above is wonderful, but we know that if he gets off to a slow start or struggles, the mantra will be on his lack of playoff performance. Trocheck is New York's unsung hero. Much of the talk late the prior season was how he and Panarin were not compatible. Chytil opened the year centering Panarin on the second line with Trocheck filling the role when Chytil was hurt and thriving. His 77 points (25 points) were a new career-high while he also saw copious action at even-strength, on the power play and shorthanded. Lafreniere, tagged by many as a bust, had his breakout campaign. Not just a product of playing with Panarin and despite minimal PP TOI, Laffy potted a career-high 28 goals with 29 assists and was a threat almost every shift.
The bottom-six has been a work-in-progress most of the season. Wennberg came at the deadline from Seattle and has steadied that 3C spot with Chytil out. Chytil, sidelined since Nov.. 2 with what's believed to be his fourth concussion, was expected to miss the remainder of the season. He surprisingly started practicing in a full-contact jersey last week and is an option for the playoffs. Coach Peter Laviolette could deploy Chytil as the 1RW or slot him back in as the 3C with Wennberg moving to wing on that line or possibly moving up to the first line. A move like that would impact Roslovic and possibly Will Cuylle, but it provides the Rangers options, as we presume that Chytil is 100% or he would not have been cleared for any contact given the injury. Initially, though, despite the impact it would have on MSG to Chytil suit up, my gut says he starts Game 1 in the press box.
Cuylle finished the regular season with 13 goals, eight assists and 247 hits in 81 appearances but slowed down offensively after mid-February, mustering just three goals without an assist over the final 27 games of the regular season. Despite the drop in production, he should be in the lineup initially, as his physical presence will be beneficial against Washington's playing style. Kaapo Kakko looked to be on the verge of a breakout after scoring 18 goals and 22 assists last season. Now, the questions that were asked on Laf are pointed to him. Kakko is strong along the walls and solid enough defensively, making him a good third-line winger, but the offensive production tailed off mightily with 13 goals and six helpers in 61 games.
Jimmy Vesey has been a jack-of-all-trades, moving up and down the lineup. He has had a turn on the first line but is better suited for the bottom-six, finishing with 13 goals and as many assists. Barclay Goodrow, largely due to his $3.6 million salary, but also due to his lack of production is persona non grata with most Rangers' fans. Despite that, he is a Lavy favorite and will be in the lineup centering the fourth line despite subpar advanced metrics. Matt Rempe, who has become the fan's favorite, is expected to line up as the fourth line right wing Sunday. His presence is meant as a deterrent to Tom Wilson but Rempe has to stay out of the box and not get caught up in any side shows. He is the most likely to be replaced by either Chytil or Jonny Brodzinski if Laviolette wants to add some speed to the bottom-six.
Blueline
Lindgren-Fox
Miller-Schneider
Gustafsson-Trouba
Extras: Jones-Ruhwedel
For much of the season, the top-four was set. When Jacob Trouba missed 11 games in March, Laviolette and coach Phil Housley paired K'Andre Miller and Braden Schneider. While the advanced metrics were not substantially different from Miller and Trouba, that new pairing looked and felt different. Lavy put Trouba and Miller back together when Trouba returned but changed up the pairings to Miller and Schneider the last two games of the season with strong results. It's possible the Rangers revert to what had been tried and true, though the signs point to this duo remaining together. Miller has looked better offensively since the change and he will need to be physical down low, the same with Schneider, against the Caps, who generate much of their attack in front of the net.
As Larry Brooks noted, the Adam Fox-Ryan Lindgren pair first formed nine years ago with Team USA’s U17 squad and reunited on the Rangers the first month of 2019-20 had a 66.67 percent goal-share after the All-Star break, on for 26 goals for and 13 against. The tandem will see its fair share of Alex Ovechkin this round as they have with all top lines in the past. Fox missed 10 games this year with an injury and struggled after his return, but as noted above, he has been right as rain lately, finishing with 73 points in 72 games. Lindgren is Robo Cop and the Bionic Man, shrugging off injuries and shots. The heart of this team, Lindgren is the modern day Dan Girardi.
Trouba is vilified for his $8 million salary and C on his chest by many. He is the true physical presence on the blue line, relying on positioning to make up for the lack of foot speed. Trouba blocks shots and dishes out hits and will need to be an enforcer down low in this series. The Caps lack of true speed should help him in this round. Erik Gustafsson played last year for Laviolette in Washington. A hot start when Fox was out receded to mediocrity and calls for Zac Jones, who showed he can be a true third-pairing d-man got louder as the year continued. If Gus struggles, Jones or Chad Ruhwedel, acquired at the deadline, will replace him.
Goalies:
Shesterkin
Quick
Shesterkin had an up-and-down campaign, but found his form again after the All-Star Break. He got off to a strong start but was scuffling leading to the ASG, in which he represented the Rangers. Igor had an a 2.86 GAA, .899 save percentage and zero shutouts in 32 games through the NHL All-Star break, but went 17-5-1 with a 2.20 GAA, .930 save percentage and four shutouts in 23 games from Feb. 9 through the end of the season and enters the playoffs on a roll, winning seven of his last nine contests, including a shutout. Jonathan Quick has given the team a solid backup netminder, notching a .911 save percentage. His greatest value may be in the locker room, where he brings a steady presence and three Stanley Cups.
As noted in my behind the numbers blog, Washington's offense is far from the weapon we used to see. They grind down low, scoring a good portion of their goals in the "home plate" area. Alexander Ovechkin found his form the last half of the season after looking like a shell of himself. Ovi had eight goals in 43 games through Jan. 24, but picked it up and scored 23 in his last 36 games. He has 13 goals in 33 playoff games against the Rangers. Connor McMichael, taken 25th overall in 2019, took a major step forward this season as the puck-carrier on the line. He finished the season with 18 goals and 15 assists, stepping into a top-six role. He may have hit a wall down the stretch, scoring one point - a goal - the last 11 games of the season. Injuries limited Oshie as well, this time, resulting in him playing just 52 games. The production dropped again, but Oshie is always dangerous.
Strome led the way for Washington with a career-high 67 points, continuing the gains we saw last year in Chicago. Do I really need to see anything more on Tom Wilson? We all know the ragdolling of Panarin changed the trajectory of the Rangers' organization. Wilson notched 18 goals and 17 assists in 74 games, missing six games in March as he was suspended for high-sticking Toronto's Noah Gregor. His presence is still a weapon. Aliaksei Protas fills the second line left wing spot. He is not a major offensive weapon, scoring just a goal and pair of assists his last 18 games and six markers and 23 goals on the season.
Max Pacioretty made a remarkable comeback from a second Achilles' injury., posting 23 points in 47 games. Pacioretty reportedly turned down a deal to the Rangers at the trade deadline, opting to stay in Washington. He doesn't have tremendous speed anymore but is a smart veteran. Hendrix Lapierre's play down the stretch helped the Caps earn a playoff berth. Taken 22nd overall in 2020, Lapierre did not score in the last month of the season, but added seven assists in his last 15 games. Milano scored a career-high 15 games, largely aided by a 30% shooting percentage, and his output slowed late.
The fourth line of Beck Malenstyn – Nic Dowd – Nicolas Aube-Kubel is a true grinding line. Dowd was heavily sought at the deadline, but the Caps opted to keep him. He is a perfect fourth line center.
Blueline
Martin Fehervary-John Carlson
Alexei Alexeyev-Dylan McIlrath
Trevor van Riemsdyk-Vincent Iorio
Carlson led the Caps blueline with 10 goals and 42 assists for 52 points. While his numbers have regressed from his peak, he still is the team's most dangerous d-man, As the Athletic noted, Carlson was still good five-on-five this season, where he has one of the best influences on the team’s expected and actual goal generation. Fehervary is a solid blue liner, content to be the physical presence on the pairing. Think Ryan Lindgren next to Adam Fox, as Fehervary had 188 hits and 109 blocked shots.
Rasmus Sandin and Nick Jensen are sidelined with upper-body injuries, Both are practicing in non-contact jerseys but won't play in Game 1. In their absence, Alexeyev and TvR, who should step in as the second pair., will be split up to help their d-partners The advanced metrics are solid for both, so look for that duo to be the third pair when Sandin and Jensen return.
For now, Alexeyev will pair with McIlrath, who deserves kudos for making it to the NHL, but I don't need to say much about him in Rangers land. TvR will skate opposite Iorio, who played just six games this season, including the last five straight.
Goalies:
Charlie Lindgren
Darcy Kuemper
The big difference recently for the Capitals is between the pipes where Lindgren wrested the No. 1 role away from Kuemper in January and did not relinquish it. He started 34 of Washington's last 43 games, going 18-13-4 with a 2.84 GAA, .904 save percentage and four shutouts. Where he really excelled was down the stretch, as Lindgren started the last six games, going 4-1-1 with a 1.68 GAA, .937 save percentage and one shutout to get Washington into the playoffs. Lindgren finished 25-16-7 with a 2.67 GAA, .911 save percentage and six shutouts in 50 games (48 starts). Kuemper went 13-14-3 with a 3.31 GAA, .890 save percentage and one shutout in 33 games (30 starts).
Special teams: Rangers Power Play (26.4%, 3rd) vs. Capitals Penalty Kill (79.0 19th)
The Rangers PP opened the season on fire, slumped during their lull, then ramped it up especially late in the season. The first unit still remains out on the ice a substantial portion of the man advantage, leaving crumbs for the second unit. Panarin roams the point or slides down the left or right side. Kreider is the net-front, shot-deflector master presence, Zibanejad prefers the left hash for his one-timer, Trocheck is in the bumper slot and Fox coordinates from the point.
When the group is rolling, the puck and player movement is quick and decisive. When they overpass or fail to move, that's when they struggle. In addition, zone entries are not always clean, but they have done a better job in that regard. The hiring of Michael Peca as a coach has aided the PP substantially, diversifying the attack somewhat.
The Capitals struggled shorthanded as well, finishing 19th in the league with a 79.0 kill rate. Dowd is still solid as is Carlson, but the mix of players and the lack of foot speed have hurt them. Down low they are strong, but quick puck movement could create openings, forcing Charlie Lindgren to overcommit.
Capitals Power Play (20.6%, 17th) vs. Rangers Penalty Kill (84.5, 3rd)
The old Caps power play was a massive weapon, the current version, a lot more muted. They rely on screens and overloading the front of the net for the most part with Ovi still blasting from the left dot. If Oshie is out or the PP struggles, McMichael could see time on the first unit, though Pacioretty could get a turn as well.
The Rangers had eight shorthanded goals, spurred by aggressive play up high in the defensive zone, while the Capitals had three. CK20's development in this regard has made him more valuable and the pairining have tremendous chemistry. Overplaying to the left dot is likely, but Washington could counter by focusing on Strome in the bumper and Carlson at the point.
The Athletic Series Preview:
Rangers-Capitals, full series preview - Big question - Roster breakdown - X-factor
Keys to/storylines of the series:
1) Panarin - Be it right or wrong, we all know the focus will be on Panarin. Not just because he scored 120 points this season, but largely because of his struggles last year. A hot start and the prior and all season narrative will fade slightly into the background. If he fails to score in game 1 or the first two games, the pressure on him will build, especially if Washington is in the series.
2) Goaltending Lindgren, Ryan' brother, in case you didn't know already, has been brilliant for the Caps and the prime reason why they made the playoffs. Shesterkin is locked in, rebuilding from a slow start to find his Vezina Trophy form. Lindgren has played well against the Rangers and is why the fanbase goes into the series with a bit of apprehension. In addition, as a righty catcher, New York has to keep in mind which is blocker and glove side to take advantage of that difference compared to most goalies. The talent in front of him clamps down defensively, but struggles with speed through the neutral zone. For NY to take advantage of that, they will need to be able to penetrate the Caps'' D more so than they did in the regular season.
3) Presidents' Trophy - Much of the story line has been on the poor history of Presidents' Trophy winners in terms of capturing the Cup. While that's true, in 1993-94, with no official Trophy, the Blueshirts finished first overall and won the Cup. History at times is meant to be repeated and at times, ignored. In this case both apply.
One key difference is that the Rangers didn't coast into the Trophy, Carolina and Dallas challenged them, which could help their mentality entering the playoffs. Washington has been in playoff mode the last two months, so they are tested in that regard already.
4) Special teams: As seen above, the Rangers have a material advantage in both regards. Taking advantage of the edge - especially on the man-advantage - will be key. Washington will need to stay out of the box while New York has to maximize the PP chances they receive, especially since they have had issues 5x5, save for the Panarin line.
We all know what Ovi likes to do on the PP. Washington still leans that way but also looks to overload down low to create chances, On the PK, communication will be a major key to make sure they avoid the 3-on-2 down low. Handoffs, recovery and of course stellar play from Igor all will be keys.
For New York offensively, the objective is don't be too fancy. Rely on what's worked during the year and maximize those chances, forcing the Capitals to maintain their structure.
5) Style of play - The Capitals prefer a slow, somewhat plodding style to help neutralize the Rangers' attack. New York wants to counter attack, using D to generate O. They are necessarily a high-flying team, but Kreider and Roslovic bring speed to the first line.
The Rangers have to be willing to do the dirty work down low to hold off the Capitals. Washington found their form down the stretch and enter the playoffs with house money.
Prediction:
On paper, the Rangers have the advantage. New York cruised into the postseason while Washington snuck in on the last day of the season. As noted above, the Caps are battle tested due to the reason, having in essence played playoff hockey for weeks.
New York finished the postseason last year on a sour note, blowing a 2-0 lead to the Devils, falling weakly in Game 7. That collapse was the final straw, resulting in the firing of Gerard Gallant. Peter Laviolette was fired by the Caps and proved to be the perfect hire in NY with Spencer Carbury replacing Lavy in Washington.
Both teams have star power, though New York has more. Strome is underrated and Ovi is still a sniper. Beyond that, it's a collection of players who fits the system with a handful like McMichael having upside. Carlson is a top-tier blueliner while Fehervary is solid as well. The Rangers have the bigger names and built for the now, making success in this year's playoffs a major key.
Despite the variance in numbers, the series will not be a cake walk by any stretch of the imagination. Shesterkin rises to the occasion, slightly outplaying Charlie Lindgren, who steals a game during the series. Panarin and Zibanejad get their mojo on, immediately alleviating the main narrative entering the postseason. The games are tight as expected but the Rangers move on.
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