The Flyers enter the Eastern Conference Semifinals as decided underdogs. The top-seeded Montreal Canadiens were the only team in the Eastern Conference that the Flyers failed to beat at least one time during the regular season and, at least on paper, present matchup problems for John Stevens.
I expect the Flyers to do better than many of the pundits have predicted, but I also realize they have their work cut out for them.
Montreal is a deeper, more defensively sound club than the Capitals. They don't have Alexander Ovechkin but Montreal has a more diverse array of weapons and can beat you in a tight-checking 2-1 game just as easily as in a wide-open 5-4 affair.
Season series
As far the regular season goes, throw all the numbers out of the window. As the seven-game first round series between Montreal and Boston showed, no matter how lopsided the head-to-head record during the season, postseason matchups are often much more competitive.
From a Montreal standpoint, the club caught the Flyers at the best possible times during the season: the Habs were playing tremendous hockey while, in three of the four games, Philly was in a down cycle heading into the game. In addition, the Flyers starting lineup for Game 1 of this series looks different than what we saw during the regular season. For instance, all of the games were played prior to the arrival of Vaclav Prospal at the trade deadline, and Martin Biron started only one of the games.
A quick recap should provide better context and show why these meetings should have little to no bearing on the current matchup:
November 1 (Away): Canadiens 5 - Flyers 2
Coming into this game, the Flyers had lost two of their last three games and were in the fourth game of an eight-game road trip. With Derian Hatcher (arthroscopic knee surgery) and Randy Jones (suspended for Patrice Bergeron hit) unavailable for the game, the Flyers started Rory Fitzpatrick and callup Nate Guenin in their places. Martin Biron was in goal for the Flyers, Cristobal Huet started for the Habs.
With the game tied 1-1 in the second period (Saku Koivu and Mike Richards traded goals), Daniel Breire was sent off for tripping Christopher Higgins, although replays clearly showed Briere didn't even make contact with the Habs' forward. Alexei Kovalev cashed in with a powerplay goal.
A few minutes later, with the Flyers on the powerplay, Richards got stripped of the puck at the blueline and Tom Kostopoulos countered for a shorthanded goal. Biron kept the game to within two when he stopped Roman Hamrlik on a penalty shot.
In the third period, Guillaume Latendresse and Higgins (PPG) added extra insurance. The Flyers scored a meaningless goal late in regulation -- a Scottie Upshall powerplay tally, with Lasse Kukkonen spring a loosely defended rush -- to make it a 5-2 final.
December 13 (Home): Canadiens 4 - Flyers 1
Heading into this game, the Flyers were in a win-one, lose-one pattern spanning their previous nine games but had blown out the Penguins by an 8-2 count two nights earlier. The loss in this game marked the beginning of a 0-4-2 stretch for the Flyers. Antero Niittymäki started and took the loss in this tilt. Carey Price got the nod for the Habs. Derian Hatcher remained out of the lineup for the Flyers (Fitzpatrick started in his place), while Randy Jones played on the top pairing with Kimmo Timonen.
The Flyers actually outshot the Canadiens in this game, 31-23, but most of the dangerous chances were created by Montreal. The Habs scored twice on the powerplay in this game and generated a three-goal outburst in the second period (with Mark Streit striking twice).
The pivotal moment came in the opening half-minute of the second period, as Andrei Kostitsyn potted a Tomas Plekanec rebound to quickly turn a 1-0 lead into a 2-0 advantage. It was all downhill from there for the Flyers. On the powerplay, Mike Knuble got Philly's lone goal.
February 16 (Away): Canadiens 1 - Flyers 0
February 17 (Home): Canadiens 5 - Flyers 3
This home-and-home set marked the sixth and seventh games of the Flyers' 10-game losing streak that dropped them from first in the Atlantic Division to battling for their playoff lives the rest of the season. Montreal was playing sensational hockey at this point. The Flyers played their best hockey of the entire losing stretch, but the Habs were just a little bit better on both nights.
In the Feb. 16 game in Montreal, Braydon Coburn was unavailable, after ruptering an artery and undergoing emergency surgery the previous weekend. Derian Hatcher (knee) was also out. Jim Vandermeer played on the top defense pairing with Timonen. Ryan Parent played his second game of the season and third career NHL game. Lasse Kukkonen was in his fourth game back in the lineup after being scratched for a month's worth of games. Niittymäki opposed Price in goal.
Andrei Kostitsyn potted a powerplay goal early in the second period for the game's only goal. The Flyers blew a golden opportunity in the third period, letting a lengthy 5-on-3 powerplay fall by the wayside.
Late in regulation, with Niittymäki pulled for an extra skater, the Flyers momentarily appeared to have scored the tying goal, but referee Dave Jackson ruled Scott Hartnell had pushed Price into the net. Also in this game, Joffrey Lupul sustained the high-ankle sprain that forced him out of action for several weeks and has affected his game ever since. Steve Downie sustained a concussion in this game and was soon a healthy scratch after returning.
The next night, Coburn returned to the lineup and Stevens used Kukkonen as a fourth line forward (despite the fact that he had a five-block, no turnover game the previous night on defense). The same goalies played again: Niittymäki vs. Price.
The Flyers hurt themselves with three early penalties, but Mike Richards answered an Alexei Kovalev powerplay goal with a shorthanded marker. The pivotal play in the game happened in the closing seconds of the first period. Montreal Scottie Upshall leveled Andrei Kostitsyn behind the Montreal net, and Jim Vandermeer moved up to engage in a shoving match as play carried on behind him. On the ensuing 3-on-1 rush, Francis Bouillon wristed a shot over Niittymaki with 1.2 seconds remaining.
Braydon Coburn got the goal back in the opening minute of the second period, but Michael Ryder (ESG) and Saku Koivu (powerplay) gave Montreal a 4-2 lead it never gave back. Late in the third period, Maxime Laperriere and Riley Cote traded off meaningless goals. Earlier in the game, Denis Tolpeko went down with a concussion. By the time he was eligible to be activated, he was locked into the big team's roster for the remainder of the season.
Scouting the Habs
Unlike the Capitals, the real engine that drives the Canadiens is its blueline, which can throw size and physicality at you. What's more, while Washington's Mike Green is a major threat from the blueline, the Habs boast a pair of high-end offensive defensemen in both Andrei Markov and Mark Streit. Mike Komisarek is one of the league's premier shutdown defensemen. He blocks a boatload of shots and hits like a tank without taking himself out of position.
In addition, veteran Roman Hamrlik played some of his best games of this season against the Flyers, and can still chip in a bit of offense. Patrice Brisebois remains as chronically inconsistent as ever, but did produce five points in the series against Boston. Josh Gorges is usually solid and doesn't need to be overextended with the talent around him. Francis Bouillon played well during the regular season but was limited to two games in the Boston series.
Up front, the Canadiens have a lot of speed and finesse (Kovalev, Tomas Plekanec, Koivu, Andrei Kostitsyn) with touches of grit (Koivu, Chris Higgins) and physical play (Tom Kostopoulous, Steve Begin). The Habs are lethal in transition and Kovalev remains a magician with the puck on his stick.
The success Andrei Kostitsyn had in the Boston series (three goals, five points) was not unexpected after his 26 goal (12 on the powerplay) regular season, but how many people would have predicted that Sergei Kostitsyn would lead the team in the first round wih three goals and six points? Meanwhile, Higgins is good at digging free loose pucks and pots a lot of powerplay goals, but isn't necessarily a pure goal scorer. He often relies on players like Koivu to create his chances.
Ultimately, what makes the Canadiens tougher to defend than the Caps is the overall depth of the lineup. The Flyers have depth, too, but can struggle when they're forced to fight for every inch of ice. Montreal will probably key on stopping the Briere line and then go from there.
To beat the Habs, the Flyers are going to need more consistent scoring from an array of sources. They're probably not going to see three or four-goal nights from any single line, as they got in three of the games against Washington. Avoiding turnovers is critical, especially on breakouts and up high in the offensive zone.
The Flyers have speed of their own, but it's not equal to the Canadiens. The more of a controlled, grind-it-out positional game they play, the more success Philly should have in this series. The Flyers will have devise ways to keep the Canadiens from exploiting the lack of mobility of defensemen like Jason Smith and Derian Hatcher. In the Caps series, Smith was out for 14 of the 20 goals the Flyers allowed (Jaroslav Modry was out for 12 of 14 in the five games he started).
In goal, rookie Carey Price has the makings of a future franchise goaltender. Nothing seems to rattle him, although he sometimes gets knocked for being almost too laid back in his approach. He silenced some doubters by shutting out Boston in the seventh game.
Of course, like any goalie and especially any rookie goalie, he can be solved if you throw enough rubber his way and generate some screens and deflections. That's easier said than done, because his top defensemen block a lot of shots and eliminate the traffic, but it can be done.
Flyers goaltender Martin Biron saw a lot of shots over the final four games of the Caps series, after the team limited the chances against them for the majority of Games 1 to 3. If he continues to play at the level he showed in Game 7, the Flyers have a chance.
Special teams and even strength
The Canadiens had the top-ranked powerplay in the NHL this season, but scuffled (3-for-33) in the first round series with Boston. The Flyers' penalty kill was streaky all year and, at least percentage-wise, was ordinary against Washington. When the Habs are clicking, they move the puck around the zone with incredible precision. Boston (ranked 28th on the PK during the regular season) did a surprisingly good job of clogging the passing lanes, and the Flyers need to do the same.
The Flyers powerplay was also one of the league's best this season, but struggled down the stretch. In the Washington series, apart from a pair of failures in lengthy 5-on-3 advantages, Philly had its share of success. Montreal was a middle of the pack penalty killing team during the regular season, but did score eight shorthanded goals. Kostopoulos had three of them, including one against the Flyers. In the first round, Montreal killed off 90% of its penalties against the Bruins' 16th-ranked powerplay. Even with Mike Knuble out of the lineup, Philly should present a more formidable challenge in this area.
Montreal was the better five-on-five team for the majority of the Bruins series. The Flyers surpassed Washington at even strength in the early part of the series, but the tables turned later on. The key, as always, is to maintain a tight gap between the forwards and defense.
Fatigue factor
Both the Canadiens and Flyers had to go seven games in their opening-round series, so it's not a situation where one team will have had a lot of rest prior to Game One. That said, the Flyers face a tall task going into Montreal to play their third game in four nights, whereas Montreal will have had an extra day to prepare. More than the schedule itself, there is cause for concern in that the Flyers looked a bit fatigued in the third period of Game 7 on Tuesday before rescuing the game and series in overtime.
For the Flyers to be successful in this series, they must keep their feet moving and not allow their energy level to drop. The will is there, but we'll have to see how well their legs hold up.
Officiating
Expect inconsistency in penalty calling. That's just how it is. Play through non-calls, kill a high percentage of your penalties and you don't have to worry about it. Teams win or lose playoff series, not officials.
For the record, the referees assigned by the NHL to the four second-round series consist of the following pool:
Paul Devorski
Mike Hasenfratz
Marc Joannette
Don Koharski
Mike Leggo
Bill McCreary
Tim Peel
Kevin Pollock
Dan O'Halloran
Kelly Sutherland
Don Van Massenhoven
Brad Watson
The three most notable exclusions: Kerry Fraser, Dan Marouelli and Dave Jackson.
The pundits
Outside of Philadelphia, any series involving the Flyers will generally be cast as the dastardly, dirty Flyers against an opponent who represents all that is good and pure about the game. It's annoying and tiresome, but it will never change.
As far as expert predictions go, who cares?
No one truly knows heading into a series what type of personality it will take on, and momentum can change in a hurry. The more you watch hockey, the more you realize that it's impossible to predict.
Any talking head or know-it-all columnist who claims they have a bead on this or any other series should be confronted with their success percentage in making accurate predictions -- even the best of the bunch have "winning percentages" that would get an NHL head coach fired or a goaltender released.
On paper, this is the Habs series to lose. But, as the cliche goes, there's a reason why the games are played on ice and not on paper.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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