Well, I got a pretty good response to the Q and A. It was great to see so many people already thinking ahead....
First things first, this blog will be a bit longer since I tried to answer the questions as best I could. Bear with it, it will be worth it (I hope) and should get you thinking ahead. Keep in mind the timing of these questions. We're a month and a half from the Draft, 2 months from the start of free agency. This makes answering some questions much harder, so I reserve the right to change my opinion down the road (as do you!) and make adjustments when necessary.
Thankfully, I was able to attend the media luncheon Paul McCann blogged about this past Thursday and that allowed me to add some depth to the answers. It was a fun event and a great first step towards looking to June.
Without further ado, I give you......
THE Q AND A:
What players are most likely to be traded or not resigned this off-season? Do you think they will sign Ellis and if so, what will they do with Mason and Rinne?
Thanks,
Scott Rodeffer
Greenbrier, TN
Scott,
I think the toughest situation to figure out will be the goaltender situation. I’ve read that Ellis will get an offer from Nashville. Whether or not he takes it is a different story, but it has been my personal experience that players have more loyalty to a team that first took a chance on them, thus he might give the Preds a hometown discount. By that logic however you do have an odd man out supposedly. It would make very little sense to have 3 goaltenders on the roster. The options are to trade one guy, buy a guy out, or trade. This all leads to the indication that Mason is likely the odd man out. Rinne is such a solid goaltender that you can’t just let him go. His upside is huge, he’s tall and fast from post to post, and I think he will be the starting goaltender is just a few years. To me, as hard as it is, you have to give Mason a chance elsewhere. He wasn’t able to handle the #1 spot mentally, but I know he will do everything he can this summer to correct that. I wouldn’t be surprised to see all 3 goalies come training camp, but that is a dangerous gamble.
Other than the goalie situation I would watch the RFA’s. I’ve heard that Erat will be tough to sign and could be a holdout. Also, I’ve heard Suter is looking for somewhere around 4 million a year. These are just rumors, but still could be indicators of what might come.
Guys that are UFA’s are as follows: Dan Ellis, Martin Gelinas, Alex Henry (AHL), Jan Hlavac, Darcy Hordichuk, Josh Langfeld (AHL), Shane Willis (AHL), and Nolan Yonkman (AHL).
From that list, it wouldn’t shock me if Henry, Hlavac, Hordichuk, Langfeld, and Gelinas (due to retirement) were not back. I would really like to see Hlavac and Gelinas return though. As much as I really like Hordi, I think he would be a better fit somewhere else. He needs more ice time then he gets here so I think letting him go would actually help him get that TOI that I know he really wants.
The Preds have the 9th pick in the entry draft coming up and they are
projected to take either Mikkel Boedker or Colin Wilson. Which one
would you pick in the draft? Or would you go with someone else
completely different and why?
Kevin from Nashvegas
Kevin,
I’m very excited with that pick. The picks from Florida are key because this decides if the Vokoun trade was worth it. We all know that Poile was handcuffed by Craig and thus forced to make the move, but considering the situation he did find a reasonable deal. I asked Poile about the Vokoun deal at a media luncheon this past week and he responded, “Well I was told to get a payroll number and he was making the most money on the team. I could trade 3 guys or him so when you went through any scenario I had to let him go.”
I was fortunate enough to talk to one of our North American scouts during the luncheon as well. He’s a reader of the blog which is always a nice thing to hear and was nice enough to answer all my questions about this year’s draft. You’ll find some quotes mixed in throughout this answer and others and those come from a couple of scouts within the Preds organization.
Mikkel Boedker plays for the Kitchener Rangers in the OHL currently. 5’ 11” 195 lbs. A left winger that shoots left handed. This past season he finished the regular season with 69 games played, 73 points (29 goals and 44 assists) and 14 PIM’s. During the playoffs he has 7 goals and 15 assists and a +7. The Rangers are in the OHL Championship game vs the Belleville Bulls. The impressions I received on Bodeker were that, “he could be as NHL ready physically as any high end pick this year. He can play in all situations, has great strength and pacing. Similar to a Martin Erat.”
Colin Wilson plays for Boston University. 6’ 1” 215 lbs. A center that shoots left handed. In his freshmen year he played in 34 games, and registered 12 goals, 22 assists, and 20 PIM’s. Wilson was a member of the gold medal winning US national team at the 2006 World U-18 Championships. He has hockey in his blood since his dad Carey was a former Dartmouth College standout. Carey played for the Canadian National Team before spending 13 seasons in the NHL with the Calgary Flames, Hartford Whalers and New York Rangers. When talking about Wilson, he was described as, “a 2-way center who is thick, strong, and can make plays. He can play in all situations, has a great hockey sense, and goes to the hard areas. He’s hard to get off the puck.” Lastly, I was told that he is high on the list for this draft.
Both prospects are highly touted, but were I to choose between the two listed above, I personally would go with Wilson. His hockey smarts, physical play from the center position, his height, and weight are big factors for me. One of my favorite quotes from Wilson comes via an article about him on the Hockey’s Future website. When asked about an area that needs improvement Wilson said, “I might need to hit a quite a bit more. Coach Parker will tell me that I need to start hitting guys or else I'm not going to be playing. So I'm definitely going to start getting in and hitting. I'll need to improve that to get to the next level."
We need natural left wingers that can score so badly so I can see the case for Boedker as well. I’ve heard his offensive abilities are near the elite level, he’s creative, and is a top 6 NHL forward. Those are things this team will need.
Boedker would be a great backup option if available.
All that to say that while I like Wilson a little more, I would be fine with either choice. This is all assuming they stay unpicked till that #9 spot though. Another guy to watch for is Kyle Beach. He has sparked the interest of many and with maturity (similar to Tootoo but with better scoring) Beach can be a force out there.
On another side note, two NHL mock drafts currently have the Preds taking Tyler Myers, the 6’ 7” 202 lbs d-man from Kelowna (Weber’s former team)
Another thing that people forget is that the 15th pick has quite a bit of value also. Everyone looks to the 9 and forgets how important the 15 could be.
David Poile described the draft as the organization’s “bread and butter.” His philosophy is that “trades and free agency are secondary to the draft.” Another scout said to me that, “the Preds rely on impact from their younger players a little sooner than some other NHL clubs. We do our homework.”
I sat with Barry Trotz at the luncheon and interestingly he told us that the NHL is not like the NFL when it comes to head coaches having a say in who is chosen. NHL head coaches leave all of that stuff up to the scouting staff and the GM, so he really isn’t involved in it as much as most people believe.
Probably the most interesting quote I gathered from Poile during that luncheon was after I asked him whether or not there is very much difference in talent level between the 9th and 15th pick. His response was, “Yeah. I think this might be the type of draft where we take a player at ninth and the next player we get him at 10th. I think it could happen… I really think it could happen.”
If the Moon was made of spare ribs, would you eat it?
Jason
Madison, TN
Jason,
No I would not. Were I lucky enough to get to the moon the consumption of it would not be on my mind.
Of all of the Predators' free agents (restricted and unrestricted), which one has the best chance of being re-signed? Which one has the least chance?
Tracy L,
Clarksville, TN
Tracy,
I would say the best chance would be Shea Weber. All indications point to him staying here. I would be shocked if he was not re-signed.
The least likely, in my opinion, would be Darcy Hordichuk. He gets scratched routinely and deserves a chance for higher TOI in a better situation.
How did you get involved with the hockeybuzz blogging as well as meet the players, coaching staff, Pete and Terry, and other notable people in the Nashville Predators franchise?
I also noticed in Ek's video, you have a event pass did this involve the question above?
Michael Goldfarb
Murfreesboro, TN
Michael,
I’ve had media credentials since the return from the lockout. What started out as a temporary game by game basis has grown into full season credentials. This past season was my 3rd covering the team, but my first full season credential year. Some may or may not remember that during the 06-07 season I became involved with a website called Pred Zone midway through the season. Once that dissolved, I was back to just covering the team for various radio and college TV spots. Then the rally came in July. I was going to the rally to cover it, and knew that Ek would be there. I hoped to meet him and see if he would have any interest of having a credentialed guy writing blogs. He said he would and to keep in touch over the summer. We got things worked out and I began blogging. Just goes to show that sometimes all you have to do is ask.
Hockeybuzz has really increased my exposure obviously, but since this past season was my 3rd year, I already knew most of the Preds staff, players, and broadcasters. I’ve just been fortunate enough to be accepted and apart of the Pred family. I truly am blessed and have God to thank for that.
What is the best option for goaltending? I tend to believe they may look to buy Mason out. If Ellis signs elsewhere, I think they go with Mason and Rinne. With Rinne being out of AHL options, I actually think he is the one guy of the 3 who is a lock for the roster. Is there any trade value with Rinne, and with Mason, considering his salary?
Thanks for your blog - I have really enjoyed it this season.
Greg Atwood
Nashville, TN
Greg,
Thanks for following the blog all season. Goaltending will be THE story of the offseason for the Preds in my opinion. As I detailed a bit in an earlier question the most likely thing is that Mason will be the odd man out unfortunately. I think Mason does have some trade value, but most teams would want either Ellis or Rinne first. To me, the first priority is re-signing Ellis when talking about the goaltender trio. If that is not possible, then the controversy becomes a moot point. I think way too many fans believe that Ellis is a sure thing re-sign. Well, we tend to forget to look at things from Dan’s perspective. Looking at this year’s goalies in the free agent market, it sets up perfectly for Dan to be able to cash in. I can’t blame him if he does. We have to realize he has worked hard to get where he is and if he can get that payday that sets him and his family up for life, who are we to fault him for that? So Danny is not a given, but I know that Poile has talked with Danny’s agent at least 3 times already.
If Elly re-signs, it will be up to Poile and Trotz as to what to do with Mason and Rinne. I love Rinne’s upside and would prefer him in the backup role believe it or not. As much as I truly truly like and respect Mace (he’s a friend of mine) I think he has a better chance in a different situation. Rinne’s one-way contract status next year dictates that in my opinion.
The Preds have a lot of money. They have needs to be filled. Will they fill them? How deep will they go into free agency? Will Sully play next year? Just a few of the many questions I have for you Mr. Felder.
Matt Woods
Matt,
I think the top 6 forward void will be filled in some way. That may be through free agency, trade, Hornqvist coming to America, or with that #9 pick in the Draft on June 20th.
With the free agency situation I think we all have to realize the numbers. Let’s assume all UFA wingers and D-men are let go. You lose Gelinas, Hlavac, and Hordichuk from the NHL roster. That leaves us with 8 D-men still, and 13 forwards. You have Hornqvist finally making his highly anticipated move to the USA, so I say 14 forwards. That leaves 2 spots essentially. You could have 3 depending on Sully. So this all leads me to say I don’t think they will be extremely active on July 1 and after, unless a couple of guys are traded, or let go (i.e. a RFA).
Sully will most certainly try and crack that lineup again. I hope he can. I have my doubts, but I know that he is really trying to get back as soon as possible. I will say that I have missed him quite a bit.
My question is a two-parter:
A) What do you think the Preds should do as far as free-agents are concerned
and
B) What do you think Poile is actually going to do?
Love God and have fun,
Seeya,
Jonathan Pelton,
Kansas City, KS.
Jonathan,
I think they should go after a top 6 forward. I’d love to have Hossa, and that is debated by many, but to me it is a move that solidifies things not only on the ice but off as well. I’m hopeful that Patric Hornqvist will not be able to stay in the AHL long (much like Radulov) and that will help add scoring as well.
I think Poile will try and get that scoring forward if possible. In the end, I’ll trust his judgment.
What do you think the Predators address this offseason? Which UFA's do we have a good chance of going after? Anyone resigned (Weber, Hlavac, Ellis, etc)?
thanks
Jonathan Mayfield
Nashville, TN
Jonathan,
I’ve answered most of those questions, however here are some players I find interesting that will be UFA’s and RFA’s:
Centers – Vaclav Prospal, Pierre-Marc Bouchard (RFA), Valtteri Filppula, and R.J. Umberger (RFA).
Left Wing – Sean Avery (Avery and Toots on a line? That’d be fun each shift), Niklas Hagman, Kristian Huselius, RYAN MALONE, Andrei Kastsitsyn (RFA), and Wojtek Wolski (RFA)
Right Wing – Pavol Demitra, MARIAN HOSSA, RADIM VRBATA, Marek Svatos (RFA)
With the possibility of a team offering Weber a huge offer sheet, do the Preds match? Do you think they would match Phaneuf's avg of 6.5/year or let him go? Someone will offer that kid a lot of coin and if he's the franchise guy they'll need to buck up.
Also, what is the main thing players like about playing in Nashville? I'm assuming they can get a sweet crib for little money (compared to major cities) but other than their inside lifestyle, what do players and their families in Nashville get up to? Are there any ex-players who settled in that area?
Agent (Hockeybuzz I.D.)
Vancouver Canucks Fan
Agent,
Weber will not be going anywhere. He is going to be a Pred, and wants to be a Pred. David Poile would match an offer sheet if it came to that, but I think Shea Web gets re-signed before other teams have a chance to throw out offer sheets.
Nashville is a city where you live a pretty private life. The guys love the community because of its friendly nature, it’s a great place to raise kids, and it also doesn’t hurt to not have an income tax. Another aspect is that people give the players respect and their space in public. One or two people may come up and get a quick autograph, but they will usually just want an autograph, say thanks, appreciate your work, and then let them be.
In Nashville there are plenty of things to do outside. Hunting is a big thing around here and I know our captain Jason Arnott is a big hunter so that’s one thing he loves to do off ice.
In regards to former players living here, well, that is a question for a person far smarter than I am, so I emailed Pete Weber. Pete said he knows of a couple former NHL’ers that still reside in Nashville: “I know Dan Geoffrion (Blakes’ Dad) lives here, he played for Montreal and Winnipeg in the NHL (and Quebec in WHA)…and I believe Jay More (Rangers – MN North Stars – San Jose – Phoenix – Chicago – Nashville) still lives here.” So thanks to Pete Weber for helping me answer that one!
1. Will Sully be healthy for the start of the 2008/09 season?
2. With the log jam at d-men, who do you think is on the block for being traded?
3. Do you see Ellis being re-signed, if at all, for a long term deal or 1 or 2 years?
4. If they do re-sign Ellis, will they keep Mason as backup or cut/trade him and bring Rinne up for the backup position.
5. What position in the draft will they go after?
6. Who might they go after in free agency?
"Jim Bob" Jones
Pegram, TN
Jim Bob,
1. I hope so. I know Sully will do everything he can to be healthy, but in my mind, if he is not ready at the start, then his body just likely isn’t able to continue on unfortunately.
2. Klein is the obvious one. I’m not sure that any of the D-men will be traded, but if forced to put 3 names out of the 8 I would write down Klein, Zidlicky, and Suter.
3. I think Elly will get a 2 year deal more than likely. I think Poile learned from the experience with Mason, but lets not forget that with Vokie gone, Poile HAD to sign his then #1 goalie for multiple years, so I can’t fault him too much considering the situation.
4. Look above at earlier answers on the goaltender circus…
5. Forward. They have to go after wingers who are finishers with their first couple of picks in my opinion. One of the more interesting things I learned in talking with scouts however is that in those first rounds you have to choose the best players available since they will become assets for your team. Teams struggle with the battle of drafting your needs vs the best available player. While on the surface you may not be filling a need in those first couple rounds, those players do become assets that could fill a need down the road, so you never know. The later rounds, I was told, are where you want guys that you can project where they will be. They are not all sure things that late in the draft so that is where you usually try to fill specific needs.
6. I’ve answered this in above questions as well, but I would think a top 6 forward is a priority. The only thing is that Mr. Poile will have to know where his team is in terms of numbers (meaning NHL guys currently on the roster) and finances before July 1. That dictates who you go after most of the time.
1. How likely is it that Sullivan will be a contributor next year?
2. If Sullivan is back, does it make more sense to bring in a big centerman for the third line than a wing?
3. Is Hornqvist ready for the NHL or does he need a year in Milwaukee?
4. What do you think? I see the lines as follows if Sullivan is back:
a. Arnott, Dumont, Sullivan
b. Legwand, Erat, and Radulov
c. Tootoo, Bonk, and _________
d. Nichols, Fiddler, and Smithson
e. Left over – Ortmeyer, Peverly,
f. UFA – Hordichuk, Bochenski, Hlavac
5. Do we trade one or more RFA blue liners for an up and coming forward?
Ed Lanquist
TN
Ed,
1. If on the ice, I expect a little drop off in point production. I think the first two months will be the time Sully gets his legs back. Then the last half of the season I expect that point per game production. This is all if he’s back of course.
2. This depends on your philosophy of a 3rd line. For me, the 3rd line is a defensive minded line that is usually used to shut down the opposing team’s top line. They are not expected to score very often. If you go by my philosophy, then I think they need a big center. If you expect a 3rd line to score every other game, then they need a winger who can finish.
3. I think Hornqvist will likely take a track similar to Radulov. He’ll start the year with the Admirals, but his talent level is so high that I think he could play the entire year in the NHL. Granted, he won’t likely light it up his first year, but a 30+ point rookie season would be a great way to get your feet wet in the NHL for Hornqvist. I was told that Hornqvist, “could be on the cusp of the NHL and make an impact.”
4. At this point I wouldn’t say your lines are too far off, but we still need to get to training camp before I start to really put line combos in my head. Also, we all know Barry (just like any head coach) doesn’t always stick with the lines no matter what.
5. If we were to trade a RFA (and that is a pretty sizeable IF) then it would likely be Suter not Weber. I’ve heard a rumbling or two that he may want more than Poile and Co. are willing to offer, but we’ll see.
Greetings, Brandon:
I am in a keeper fantasy league and have two questions for you:
I drafted Radulov the year before he hit the NHL and have been relatively pleased with his numbers. Like Patrick O'Sullivan of the Kings though, given their minor league stats, I expected a bit more. Do you see Radulov continuing to improve and eventually reaching Tier-1 status?
Secondly, I recently drafted Al Montoya, expecting him to be traded since the Rangers have King Henrik locked up. What kinda future do you see for Al in Phoenix (he's a RFA now) and for Al in general?
Thanks,
J. Andrew
J. Andrew,
Rudy should improve over this past season. He even admitted that this past off-season he didn’t do enough to train and be prepared for the start of the season. He plans to do much better in his off-season regimen and that should get him out to a quicker start coming out of training camp next year. The other thing to watch is what line he will be on. This won’t really be revealed till training camp, but you can expect the top two lines of course.
Al Montoya. Well, I won’t try and even say that I’m an expert on that situation, but I will tell you what I see. I see Bryzgalov out there at Phoenix and I think that limits Montoya’s chances of getting many starts. As good a prospect as he is, he just seems to be unlucky and signing at places that are jammed at goalie.
Love reading your Blog. Were there any rumors about who the Predators would go for when the free agency starts
Thomas Romanoff
Thomas,
I think it is a bit early to hear rumors, plus Ek is much better than I at that. I don’t have the “ins” he has. I will say that I doubt we hear too many rumors since I don’t see the Preds being extremely active (unless some trades break out) and I know for a fact that the Draft is the number 1 priority of Poile and his staff. I’ll just say lets wait till mid-June on this one since I likely won’t hear much till after the June 20-21st Draft in Ottawa. Thanks for reading the blog. Glad you enjoy it!
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thanks to all of you who submitted questions. I hope you got something out of my answers. I'm no expert, but I gave it my best. I'm honored you though highly enough of my opinion to ask me such great questions!
I may have to do this again just before training camp.....
Ok, so some final things. I know I promised you guys grades..... Well, I hope you didn't get your hopes up on that. Over the last two weeks, I've decided that they are pointless. The head coach and GM/President are here to stay so there is not much reason to evaluate them on last year. Had there been a change in those positions, then I feel you can evaluate their work as a whole, which is better suited than a one year focus.
Much like the Preds organization, I'm looking ahead, and starting to focus on June 20th. I'll be doing more and more research as the month progresses and hope that you do the same. Be informed, and look real smart at that draft party when you know each kid drafted in the 1st round. On that note, I'm thinking of attending the draft party this year for the first time, but don't know much about it. I'm hoping one of you readers will comment on the blog and give me more info. I'd appreciate it.
Well, thanks for getting through it. Hope it got you thinking. I went out on some pretty unstable limbs, so I'm looking forward to your comments on what was said.
Till the next time, take care.
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