I think everyone can agree that the NHL's plus-minus statistic isn't the most accurate figure to determine a player's defensive worth. Too often, players are either rewarded or victimized without actually taking part in the scoring play. Why should Joe Thornton take a -1 on the play when Marc-Edouard Vlasic turns the puck over behind his own net? Likewise, why would Douglas Murray get a +1 when he's trailing the 2-on-1 goal by 120 feet?
Searching for a more accurate stat to determine both responsibility for the good and accountability for the bad, I've come up with direct plus-minus. I realize several players can receive either credit or condemnation for each NHL goal, and nobody scores without the help of teammates. However, direct plus-minus pinpoints the one player who was most responsible for the scoring play, both offensively and defensively. Obviously some plays are going to be a judgement call, but this stat gives a much more accurate breakdown than the current plus-minus.
Goal Accountability
This statistic tracks the number of defensive breakdowns that directly result in a goal. It could either be a missed assignment, lost battle or turnover, but there's always one player who stands out above the rest for the error. Sometimes it falls entirely on the goaltender, who gives up a soft goal despite strong defensive coverage in front of him. Here are the stats through the Sharks' first nine games, with descriptions for each goal the team has given up.
10/9 - SJ 4, ANA 1
Lukowich – didn’t tie up Niedermayer’s stick on deflection in front
10/11 – SJ 3, LA 1
Lukowich – failed to block passing lane on Frolov’s power play one-timer
10/12 – SJ 1, LA 0
10/14 – SJ 5, CBJ 2
Murray – screened Nabokov on Huselius’ shot from faceoff circle
Murray – lost battle along wall and poor positioning on Backman’s point shot
10/17 – ANA 4, SJ 0
Boyle – lost battle behind net and screened Nabokov on Beauchemin’s shot
Lukowich – missed coverage and fell down in front, leaving Moen wide open in slot
Goc – too aggressive going after puck, leaving Pronger alone for point shot
Blake – didn’t cover Pahlsson coming out of penalty box on breakaway
10/18 – SJ 5, PHI 4 (OT)
Vlasic – failed to cover Briere at side of the net after carom off endboards
Marleau – late backchecking on Coburn as trailer took centering pass
Boyle – too aggressive on power play, shot banked around to Carter for 2-on-1
Ehrhoff – caught pinching, allowing Briere to be sprung for breakaway
10/22 – SJ 7, PHI 6 (SO)
Marleau – poor pass in neutral zone picked off by Carter for breakout
Marleau – turnover in offensive zone and poor defense against Richards on backcheck
Boyle – failed to tie up Upshall’s stick on rebound in the slot
Vlasic – bit on Richards going to the net and left trailer Lupul wide open
Thornton – lost faceoff cleanly in defensive zone, letting Lupul fire quick shot
Blake – too aggressive in front, leaving left side open so Briere could pounce on rebound
10/24 – FLA 4, SJ 3
Nabokov – goaltender had to stop an unscreened point shot from Stillman
Blake – left Zednik alone in front and was late covering slot after rebound
Grier – missed assignment and left Horton alone going to the net
Blake – lost battle along halfboards and didn’t cover Stillman going to the slot
10/25 – SJ 3, TB 0
Goal Responsibility
On the flip side, whenever a goal is scored one player can take credit for making the play happen. It doesn't always have to be the player who scored. Sometimes this stat will be credited for causing a turnover, leading the breakout, or making a perfect pass that results in a goal.
10/9 - SJ 4, ANA 1
Cheechoo – went to the net and cleaned up rebound after failed clearing attempt
Cheechoo – faded out from the slot, giving Thornton perfect passing target
Ehrhoff – prevented clearing attempt and picked corner with point shot
Setoguchi – nice second effort after Marleau forced turnover to spring 2-on-1
10/11 – SJ 3, LA 1
Setoguchi – parked himself in front to clean up rebound and slide it in
Vlasic – long breakout pass turned Plihal loose for 1-on-1 opportunity
Michalek – stickcheck forced turnover and quick pass led to 2-on-1
10/12 – SJ 1, LA 0
Marleau – picked up rebound and started 3-on-2 rush, forcing defense to back off
10/14 – SJ 5, CBJ 2
Pavelski – cleared puck and forced turnover to set up Cheechoo’s shorthanded goal
Michalek – made himself available for give-and-go, threw puck to the net
Marleau – second effort staying with the play and picked up his own rebound in the slot
Grier – forced turnover behind the net that led to Marleau’s shorthanded goal
Thornton – got in on forecheck and made perfect feed to Vlasic in front
10/17 – ANA 4, SJ 0
10/18 – SJ 5, PHI 4 (OT)
Ehrhoff – perfect shot from the point found the twine
Cheechoo – deflection on Vlasic’s point shot gave Niitymaki no chance
Pavelski – followed his own shot, picking up rebound and cashing it in
Setoguchi – went hard to the net and gathered rebound for easy goal
Boyle – faked out and went in, giving Thornton nice target for one-timer
10/22 – SJ 7, PHI 6 (SO)
Pavelski – redirection in the slot off Ehrhoff point shot
Clowe – had perfect position in front to bang in rebound off shot by Vlasic
Setoguchi – battled for rebound and made nice no-look feed to Marleau for tap-in
Setoguchi – went hard to the net and stopped in front for second effort
Boyle – swooped into the slot to pick up rebound and put it home
Marleau – excellent puck control swinging behind the net on wraparound
10/24 – FLA 4, SJ 3
Thornton – skated into the middle for confident shot on the power play
Clowe – set excellent screen on Vokoun and deflected puck past him
Marleau – chipped puck out to create shorthanded 2-on-1 with Grier
10/25 – SJ 3, TB 0
Goc – perfect shot from the wing goes in off the far post
Clowe – parked in front for screen and deflection past Smith
Setoguchi – made a nice individual effort coming out from behind the net
Direct Plus-Minus
The direct plus-minus stat is calculated by giving a player a minus each time they're the one accountable for an opponent's goal, and a plus each time they are responsible for producing a goal. Obviously defensemen are going to find themselves in the minus more often than forwards, because they play closer to the net where the majority of goals are scored, but it also helps to indicate why goals are being scored. Basically, if a player isn't strong enough defensively to prevent goals, he'd better make up for them on the offensive side to balance things out.
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