TORONTO (Jan. 23) – By any reasonable measure, the Toronto Maple Leafs have provided few surprises during the pre-All-Star segment of the 2008-09 NHL season. Collectively and individually, the Leafs are almost dead-center where most observers felt they’d be, even if it took a bit longer than anticipated to get there. My own prediction of a 30th-place finish in the overall standings is in serious jeopardy, given that the New York Islanders are primed to become the worst team in the post-lockout era. But, 29th spot is noticeably there for the taking, and the Leafs appear more than capable of nestling into that draft-enviable position during their final 34 games.
Certainly, the multitudes that were overcome with playoff fever after a 5-3-3 start have fallen silent. Thanks to the usual burst of energy under a new coach, the Leafs performed at an impressive clip through the first month-and-a-half of the schedule, but reality has taken hold since the peak of the holiday season. There was no Christmas cheer for the Leafs and their fans after an 8-2 home-ice loss to Dallas on Dec. 23rd precipitated the inevitable decline. A 3-9-2 crumble has served one critical purpose – likely removing any morsel of uncertainty in Brian Burke that a near-complete demolition of the team is in order.
With that as a back-drop, we examine the 2008-09 Maple Leafs at the All-Star break.
FRONT OFFICE: The Leafs appear to finally have an exceptional management structure, and that’s why the future of the club is potentially greater now than at any time in the past generation. Barring an unforeseen development, Burke, David Nonis and Joe Nieuwendyk will evolve as the Big Three in the hockey department, with capable support from Jeff Jackson and Cliff Fletcher. Burke, Nonis and Nieuwendyk are well-respected in the NHL for prior accomplishments and could be a formidable trio. Burke, of course, won the Stanley Cup as GM of Anaheim in 2007; Nonis pulled off one of the best trades in recent years – acquiring goalie Roberto Luongo in his term as GM of the Vancouver Canucks, while Nieuwendyk has the intelligence and demeanor to be a top-ranked hockey executive, not to mention a playing career [564 goals, three Stanley Cups] that will land him in the hall of fame. Jackson is well-versed in the intricacies of the CBA, and Fletcher has more than 40 years of NHL experience to draw from. But, none of these folks have a magic wand. The legendary patience of Toronto hockey fans must endure for another couple of seasons. If so, the rewards from this management cluster could be plentiful.
COACH: Nothing that Ron Wilson says or does this season bears any real significance, other than establishing a code of accountability in the dressing room. Wilson suggesting the current Leafs are a “bad team” may aggravate some players and fans in the midst of a losing streak, but he might as well add that grass is green and the sky is blue. Two years from now, Wilson will not be able to say his team is “bad” without others immediately asking why. Wilson is bulletproof in his first season behind the Toronto bench, and he knows it. But, the onus to produce better results will increase exponentially. When that time arrives, we’ll find out what this man is truly capable of – whether he is, as reputed, one of the top coaches in the NHL, or perhaps why his talent-laden San Jose teams never attained their playoff potential.
PLAYERS
VESA TOSKALA: Easily, the biggest disappointment of the season thus far for the Maple Leafs. He has consistently ranked near the bottom of the league in major goaltending statistics. At the All-Star break, his 3.29 GAA is 43rd among goalies that have made at least 19 appearances – placing him behind such notables as Erik Ersberg, Antero Nittymaki, Alex Auld, Dany Sabourin, Jason LaBarbera, Peter Budaj and Kari Lehtonen. Toskala’s .885 save percentage ranks 42nd in the NHL. Burke told THE FAN-590 here in Toronto on Thursday that Toskala is likely to be back with the Leafs next season, but he made the remark with the enthusiasm of a person about to undergo a digital-rectal exam. He knows what championship-caliber goaltending looks like, and he hasn’t seen more than the occasional flash of it from Toskala. Also, in the absence of a viable alternative, there isn’t much else the GM can say when asked about the future of his No. 1 netminder. As I mentioned in a blog last week, replacing Toskala with a better goalie before next season will be a very difficult chore, as the options are not abundant. But, neither can I imagine Burke moving the Leafs into contention two or three years down the road without first making a goaltending change. Perhaps we’ll find out more of what the Leafs have when farm-hand Justin Pogge is promoted from the American League in the next week or so, and given a stretch of games.
CURTIS JOSEPH: In hindsight, it’s unfortunate that the Maple Leafs icon and future hall of famer chose to play again this season. I say in hindsight, because it’s understandable why Cujo would wish to give it one last shot in his home town, after a few moments of playoff glory with Calgary last spring. But, it’s painfully obvious that he can no longer perform to NHL standard while being called upon once every three or four weeks. In 11 appearances, Joseph has a 1-5-1 record with a 3.89 GAA and .850 save percentage. These numbers scream for him to retire gracefully. And, they underline a necessity for an improved Toronto team in the coming years… reliable back-up goaltending. In the past three seasons, the Leafs’ No. 2 men [Joseph, Andrew Raycroft, Jean-Sebastien Aubin and Mikael Tellqvist] have combined for five victories [a 5-15-7 record]. Boston’s back-up, Manny Fernandez, has 14 wins by himself at the All-Star break this season. Good teams deploy two competent puck-stoppers.
LUKE SCHENN: The Leafs speak of their prize rookie as the next coming of Chris Pronger, which would be the ultimate result. Otherwise, it’s too early to predict the future of the No. 5 choice in last summer’s NHL draft. Schenn has displayed maturity on and off the ice in his freshman campaign. He’s developing a physical presence that should be of great value as the club improves. He doesn’t generally panic with the puck, though he’s coughing it up more frequently as the season progresses. And, he makes use of a long reach aided by a stick that is roughly the length of a hydro pole. The question none of us can answer right now is whether Luke would have benefited more from returning to his junior club in Kelowna and playing on the gold medal Canadian team in the recent world championships. But, he’s had that experience before and he does not look out of place as a 19-year-old professional.
JEFF FINGER: The butt of jokes last summer after inking a lucrative free agent contract with the Leafs, Finger has shown to be a capable defenseman with a willingness to throw his body at opposing forwards. That could make him somewhat injury prone, given that he’s not a big player [liberally listed by the hockey club at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds]. He’ll make $3.5 million a year through the end of the 2011-12 season, which isn’t a crushing figure for a defenseman that can play in the top four on a contending team. The Leafs are hopeful they can determine whether Jeff indeed fits that mold.
IAN WHITE: No returning player has shown greater maturity and commitment than the diminutive defenseman, who has proven valuable as a part-time forward. While sitting out the first 11 games of the season, White spoke only of making the best of an opportunity to play, once it arrived. There was no bitching or moaning, even when provided the chance to vent by reporters. That was notable. Clearly, Ian doesn’t possess the size and belligerence that Burke is seeking, particularly on the back end. Nor, will he ever be a front-line performer. But, no team ices an entire roster of big players on their way to the hall of fame. White’s modest salary increases by only $10,000 next season [to $950,000]. He has a sizeable amount of character and is a good teammate, so Burke risks very little by retaining him.
NIKLAS HAGMAN: Another solid pick-up by the Leafs in free agency, the Finnish-born winger – like the club – hasn’t been quite as dynamic as earlier in the season. But, he’s generally reliable at both ends of the ice and appears capable of approaching his career-high 27 goals with Dallas last year [he has 13 so far]. Whether or not Hagman is Burke’s kind of player remains to be seen. As with Finger, he is signed through the end of the 2011-12 season [at $3 million per], which means he’ll be under contract at a time when the club plans to make a push in the standings. He’ll be increasingly tradable if Burke chooses not to move forward with him beyond next season.
BRAD MAY: Immediately upon joining the club two weeks ago from Anaheim, this veteran prompted the joke that “if the Leafs cannot play in May, bring May to play with the Leafs.” Too bad June Jones is a football coach. Burke has run shot-gun with May throughout much of his managerial career in the NHL. And, that’s why the 37-year-old forward could be back with a restructuring Maple Leafs team next season. He’s a rugged, sometimes dirty player with no hesitation to drop his gloves, and he has a delightfully goofy side that comes in handy during tense moments. More than anything, though, May understands what it’s like to play a role [albeit a minor one] on a championship team, having raised the Stanley Cup in Anaheim two years ago. Burke is looking for him to set a tone in the dressing room.
JIRI TLUSTY: The kid has a great attitude and a soft pair of hands, but he hasn’t yet been able to put it together in the NHL. Count last season as a lost opportunity. Paul Maurice had little confidence in him, and the Czech-born winger gathered splinters on the bench rather than playing regularly in the AHL. In the Calder Cup playoffs with the Toronto Marlies, Tlusty performed adequately, scoring twice and adding eight assists in 19 games. Given Burke’s style of player, I’m not confident about Jiri’s long-term future with the Leafs.
LEE STEMPNIAK: Would Burke have made the deal with St. Louis that sent Alex Steen and Carlo Colaiacovo to the Blues for Stempniak? It happened Nov. 24th, only five days before he was introduced as the Leafs’ president and GM. Fletcher and Wilson thought they were getting the best player in the trade and a right-handed shot for the powerplay. In 26 games, however, Stempniak has just one goal with the man advantage and four goals in total. At 5-foot-10, 195 pounds, he isn’t about to run over anybody along the boards and the Leafs owe him $3.5 million next season. Unless he re-discovers the formula that enabled him to pot 27 goals with the Blues in 2006-07, it’s unlikely that Stempniak is long for Toronto. He ranks as a buy-out possibility next June.
MATT STAJAN: Another player that flourished while the Leafs were exceeding hope in October and parts of November, his production has slowed to a trickle [no points in the past five games; one goal and two assists in the past eight]. A three-assist effort in Edmonton on Nov. 13th had Stajan playing at almost a point-per-game [16 points in 17 games] for the first time in his career. Centering Nik Antropov and Alexei Ponikarovsky, the playmaking skill from his junior days appeared to be flourishing. Then came a five-game absence with a bizarre eye injury, incurred while watching a pre-practice soccer drill in Arlington, Va. after Christmas, and Stajan hasn’t been the same since returning [nor have his linemates]. There is more to him, however, than just statistics. He has capably and admirably taken on the role of prime dressing room spokesman in Mats Sundin’s absence, and is the Leafs’ representative with the NHL Players Association. Though he professes a genuine desire to win, and is fiercely proud to play for the Blue & White, Matt still lacks the physical drive to be an impact performer with the club. He is signed through next season at $1.75 million and can become an unrestricted free agent in the summer of 2010. Having not experienced a lick of prosperity in his years with the Leafs, he might benefit from a change of scenery.
TOMAS KABERLE: Undoubtedly the Leafs’ biggest chip on the trade market, the veteran defenseman is expected to draw abundant interest from contending teams heading towards the Mar. 4th deadline. A bidding war between three or four clubs in the hours before the cut-off could yield the Maple Leafs an enviable package. And, rest assured that Burke will not deal Kaberle until that circumstance evolves. He’ll be looking for at least a first-round draft choice, a top prospect, and an established mid-line player that can fill Kaberle’s skates for a season or two. Otherwise, there is no purpose in rushing to deal a valuable asset that will consume only $4.25-million of salary in each of the next two seasons. Kaberle, of course, has a limited no-movement clause, but he’ll waive that privilege for the right opportunity at the deadline, knowing the Leafs can trade him to any city in the league over the summer.
JEREMY WILLIAMS: If the Leafs could send this guy down after every game and bring him back up for the next game, he might lead the NHL in scoring. Williams always starts with a flourish after being recalled from the minors, and he’s enjoyed a good run with the Leafs this season – notching five goals and two assists in 10 games. Small and wiry, but with excellent speed and a hard, accurate shot, Jeremy is a tantalizing prospect. After the break, he’ll return from a 10-game absence with a shoulder injury, and Burke will likely have a good look at him before making any long-term decisions. Don’t be surprised if he’s a keeper.
DOMINIC MOORE: What appeared to be a low-level waiver claim by the Leafs midway through last season has turned into much more. And, yes, you can thank John Ferguson for that. In his final personnel move before getting canned as general manager, JFJ plucked Moore from Minnesota’s roster and the Toronto native is something of a revelation. A gritty, no-nonsense forward with limited natural skill, Moore has developed into a stalwart on the hockey club, thanks to diligent puck pursuit, and a calm, learned approach in the dressing room. His 25 points is easily a career high and he still has 34 games to improve on it. In the absence of a superstar player for the next couple of years, Dominic could slide nicely into the temporary role of captain, if Burke and Wilson are intent on awarding the ‘C’. Of course, the Leafs will have to first re-sign him, as he can become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
JAMAL MAYERS: A quiet, well-liked presence in the dressing room – and a terrific fighter – Jamal has nonetheless struggled to attain the impact Fletcher envisioned after trading a third-round pick [70th overall] to St. Louis prior to the NHL Draft last June. Though he’s never been a big scorer, Mayers has shown no offensive flair this season, with just a goal and four assists in 36 games. The Leafs are on the hook for $1.4 million next year, when Mayers will turn 35. He therefore ranks as a buy-out candidate while the club can still pay him two-thirds of his salary. Waivers are also an option.
ALEXEI PONIKAROVSKY: For much of the season, the native of Ukraine was going gangbusters, and seemed all but assured of reaching the 30-goal plateau for the first time. Then came Stajan’s eye injury and “Pony” has since settled into his normal career pattern of streaky scoring with long bouts of silence. He has 14 goals in 47 games and still a very good chance to surpass his career high of 21 markers, set in 2005-06 and 2006-07. But, he must get going after the break, with only one goal in the past seven games. If so, he’ll be a tradable asset for Burke, as many teams will be looking for size [6-foot-4, 220 pounds] and a better-than-average touch around the net. Ponikarovsky will earn a manageable $2.5 million next season before his first crack at unrestricted free agency. In a best-case scenario, Burke could deal him for a second-round draft choice and a younger prospect.
JONAS FROGREN: The soft-spoken veteran of the Swedish Elite League is getting his feet wet in the NHL, and has not yet played with the confidence the Leafs are hoping he’ll attain. At 28, Jonas is ancient for a first-year pro in North America, but he shows some of the attributes Burke likes in defensemen – primarily an aggressiveness around the net. Slated to make only $900,000 next season, the Leafs should stick with him and see what happens.
MIKE VAN RYN: What a pity this season has become for one of Fletcher’s top acquisitions. Van Ryn developed into a reliable, puck-moving presence and a much-respected veteran on the hockey club in the first month of the season. Then came the hit from behind by Montreal’s Tom Kostopoulos at the Air Canada Centre Nov. 8th, and a second mishap along the boards in Boston only three games after returning to the line-up. In all, Mike has suited up in just three of the past 31 matches and 2008-09 has been a write-off, to this point. It is, however, not beyond salvaging if Van Ryn can re-join the club after the All-Star break and stay free of injury in the final 34 games. At $3.5 million [a $2.9-million cap hit] this season and next, Mike is not excessively overpaid. This season’s concussions follow a year ruined by wrist problems in Florida. Had he remained healthy, Mike would have been a tradable asset for Burke, but his head issues are likely to put that on hold.
ANTON STRALMAN: Whatever it is that burdens second-year players in professional sport – the so-called “sophomore jinx” – has gripped this otherwise talented blueliner from Sweden. In the latter half of 2007-08, Stralman’s confidence and skill-set both developed; he started to jump into the play more often and his ability to lug the puck and pass it accurately beyond the defensive zone came of age. But, it somehow vanished over the summer. In training camp and exhibition games, Anton was no longer a commanding presence, and he was a healthy scratch in seven of the first 16 regular-season matches. He was subsequently demoted to the Marlies for a 14-game stint, before being recalled for the Leafs’ game at Carolina last week. So, the jury is out on this fellow. He doesn’t fit the typical Burke mold of defensemen, yet his skill level should be of value to the Leafs. He could also be a trade chip for the GM.
JOHN MITCHELL: Having languished in the minors for three years, the Oakville, Ont. native suddenly made a big impression at training camp and was awarded a spot on the hockey club. More than half-a-season later, I’m still not sure what type of player he is. A potential break-out game against the New York Rangers on Nov. 1st – his two goals paced a remarkable five-goal outburst by the Leafs in the third period – turned into a spectacular aberration. John has only one goal in 31 games since that night. He’s also a rather disastrous minus-12. But, Mitchell is a good skater and a mature presence in the dressing room. I’m just not certain he’s anything more than a typical fourth-liner, which makes him easily replaceable.
NIKOLAI KULEMIN: A few diplomatic words about this guy last summer from ex-Russian League teammate Evgeni Malkin was all it took to send hopeful Leaf fanatics into spasms of delight. Once reality entered the picture, Kulemin proved to be exactly as advertised – a decent NHL rookie with a promising array of talent. Perhaps he’ll develop into a 25-goal shooter once he learns the ropes. With a stocky build, Kulemin is able to battle for pucks along the boards, but is otherwise a bit scatter-brained on the ice. He’s only played once since Jan. 6th and a healthy stint in the minors would do him a world of good.
RYAN HOLLWEG: This was a mistake by Fletcher. Hollweg has had no impact on the hockey club since being acquired from the Rangers last July for a fifth-round selection in the 2009 entry draft. After a terrible spate early in the season, he has found a way to mend a career-long pattern of hitting opponents from behind, and that’s taken some work. But, there isn’t much else to say about Ryan. He’s been a healthy scratch 19 times so far and is slated to be a restricted free agent this summer. It’s highly unlikely the Leafs will retain him.
JASON BLAKE: Described recently by Wilson as the Leafs’ “best player over the past two months,” the veteran winger has pointedly recovered from a horrible first season with the Maple Leafs. That said, he’s on pace for between 20 and 25 goals – not nearly the spectacular number that prompted Ferguson to lock him up until he’s 70 years old [or so it seems]. Performing as he has this season, Blake would be a valued asset on a team with playoff designs. But, his contract is still virtually unmovable, with three more years and $10.5-million remaining [his salary drops from $4.5 million to $3 million in the final two years of the deal, but his cap hit remains at $4 million]. Give the guy lots of credit, though. He’s bounced back from a diagnosis of leukemia that initially sapped his desire to play hockey. That’s quite a remarkable accomplishment.
ANDRE DEVEAUX: The need for toughness has kept this fellow up with the Leafs since the last week of November, but it’s doubtful he can be an every-game player in the NHL. To his credit, Andre was not a “gong-show” once he appeared from the minors. A lot of players in his position would instigate fights, just to be noticed. Deveaux drops his gloves rather frequently, but he picks his spots and has taken very few dumb penalties. I kind of like him, and he may get more of an opportunity with Burke and Wilson.
PAVEL KUBINA: Another prime trading asset for the Leafs. Kubina is a valuable, popular member of the hockey club and he possesses a deadly one-time slapshot on the powerplay. It’s expected a cadre of teams will be looking to add that skill for the stretch-run and the playoffs. I sense, however, that Pavel genuinely wants to stay in Toronto, so urging him to waive his limited no-movement clause could be a chore. He comes with a hefty price-tag [$5 million through next season], though it is not above current market-value for a defenseman of his caliber. There’s an outside chance the Leafs could get a first-round pick from the right team, but Kubina will more than likely command a second-rounder and a good prospect.
NIK ANTROPOV: In the initial month of the season, Fletcher figured Big Nik was worth a first-round pick closer to the trade deadline. Now, that seems highly in doubt. Antropov has lapsed into a frightful slump, not having scored a goal in more than a month, dating to a game at Pittsburgh on Dec. 20th. That equals a 15-game drought, and there was no indication of such until it occurred. Accordingly, it follows that Antropov could bust out of the goal famine at a moment’s notice and rehabilitate his value on the market. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer, which could either help or hinder his trade prospects, depending on the team involved and its salary-cap situation.
MIKHAIL GRABOVSKI: Ultimately, we will discover whether this guy is the dynamic presence he appeared to be in October and November, or a streaky, flash-in-the-pan that prompted Montreal to get rid of him. Grabovski was no longer happy in the Canadiens’ organization and he threatened to defect to the Kontinental Hockey League if Bob Gainey didn’t trade him. So, the Habs pretty much had to make a move. Otherwise, the Canadiens are not generally in the business of letting good players escape, and Mikhail looked like a very good player earlier this season. But, three goals in the past 25 games and none in the past 10 has put a different spin on the 24-year-old. Clearly, there is work to be done for Grabovski to emerge as a threat on a nightly basis, though it’s almost certain that Burke will re-sign him before he is eligible to become a restricted free agent this summer.
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