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Another date with the Devil - Series preview |
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True to Canes playoff history, the team will see the Devils in the NHL playoffs. This has been the case in each of the now 4 playoffs that the Canes have participated in since moving to Raleigh. (The 1st round Bruins loss was back in the Greensboro days.) As good as the Devils have been in the playoffs and as good as Brodeur is, the Devils matchups have generally been kind to the Canes. The Canes have won the past 2 matchups, both times eventually working their way to the Stanley Cup finals.
About a week ago, I stated that the Devils were my preferred matchup, so I am okay with how things ended up. Was it because I thought this would be an easy series? No way. Was it because I thought we had some kind of magic against Brodeur that rendered him just another goalie? Far from it. And am I sure that the Canes will emerge from this series with a win? Not at all. But amongst the various choices, I like this matchup for the Canes for a few reasons.
1) Speed and skill versus size and banging. Defensively the Canes have fared better battling speed and skill than they have size and grit. As far as the regular season, Boston was by far the toughest matchup for the Canes with a bunch of lopsided losses. The Canes seemed to have trouble playing against a team that skated pretty well but was also bigger and more physical. Time and time again the Canes seemed to get pushed to the outside offensively and beaten to the front of the net in the defensive zone. On the other hand, the Canes are suddenly gifted with defensemen who can skate. Gone are bigger bangers like Wesley and Commodore and in are more skating defensemen like Corvo and Pitkanen.
New Jersey is more the skating and skill type offensively with skilled offensive surgeons like Parise, Elias, Langenbrunner, etc. doing the heavy lifting on offense. I think this fits better with what the Canes do well defensively than taking another run at a big, physical team like Boston or even Washington or Philadelphia.
2) No Staal stopper. New Jersey is more of the team defense/balanced blue line approach to defense. I think this kind of depth/overall soundness is actually better come playoff time, but I think it also helps the Canes. Especially on the road, Staal and his line have had a tough time of it (maybe less so since Cole's arrival but still) when they have to go head-to-head all night against the teams that can send a big, mobile defenseman after Staal all night. Best examples are Chara in Boston, Bouwmeester in Florida and even to some degree Philips in Ottawa. New Jersey does not have a pure #1 pairing like this. Their team defense and balance should help them battle the Canes balanced 3-line scoring from March, but I like Staal's chances to have a big series, and at the end of the day playoff series are largely decided by whose best players are better.
3) Looking forward. The team obviously needs to stay focused on only the next game and not worry about where the longer journey hopefully goes. But a fan at a keyboard can look a little farther ahead. And I think the 4/5 matchup in the East is a trap. I think it is a long 6 or 7 game series, and I think it is incredibly physical. For me, Philadelphia ranks #1 or #2 in the East (Boston the other) in terms of having the physical component of their team mixed right in the middle of the scoring lines with big bodies like Knuble and edgy players like Hartnell playing with scorers. Teams that get their physical from "energy lines" or "jam lines" are much easier to play against because you can send your grinders out there against them and use your 3rd pairing defensemen who see less minutes and are not as vital if they wear down a bit. And both teams have skilled guys that can get the puck up the ice which pushes the skating pace of the series. I think this will be a phenomenal series to watch for intensity, speed, physical play and quality hockey. I also think this series has the potential to be 1 that just uses too much of the legs, energy and bumps and bruises reserves too early in the playoffs leaving the winner without enough reserves to get through 3 more rounds of a long playoffs.
I do not mean to say that the Canes/Devils series will be devoid of physical contact and expending of energy - far from it in an even playoff series. But even if the series goes 7 games, my prediction is that whoever comes out of this series pays less of a physical price than the Pens/Flyers winner - at least I hope.
More briefly: I would rather take my chances with New Jersey's skill and speed than a couple other team's size and physical play. I like the fact that Staal is not staring at a Chara or Bouwmeester type on the road. And I think this series has the potential to leave a little more in the tank for the winner.
A couple keys to the series:
1) Canes: Attention to detail in the defensive zone. The Canes great run in March had 2 key headlines. First and foremost was Cam Ward. He was phenomenal during the run. But a quieter headline was the soundness on defense. The defense mostly avoided the bad type of breakdown and gave Ward a fighting chance. We saw a brief relapse to the dark side and what it means for Canes success against Buffalo. Hopefully that is just a friendly reminder in a game that did not matter.
2) Devils: Refinding the mojo. The Devils were 1 of the best (if not the best) teams in the East in the dead of winter. They were not even close to that down the stretch. The biggest negative for me in Saturday's loss in New Jersey had nothing to do with the Canes side of the ledger. The 2 freak goals in an otherwise decent outing made for a loss that you can just move past and head to the playoffs. But I think it might have meant a little more for the Devils. It proved for the 1st time in 4 tries that the Devils could beat the Canes. And coming down the stretch losing, it also gave them a positive heading into the playoffs. But is a small confidence boost and finally games that matter enough to get the Devils playing the confident and assertive brand of hockey they were playing a few months ago? I hope not.
Though the chances are slim, I would love nothing more than to run the Devils out of their own building with a 4-1 or 5-1 win in game 1. That leaves the Canes going to the rink for a regular practice on Thursday and at least gives the Devils a chance to enter the world of self-doubt. Again, it seems unlikely, but one can hope.
3) Both: Special teams. If New Jersey can refind their confidence and winning style of play from January, look for them to be solid defensively and opportunistic offensively. The result is a solid game where they give up little and have 1 of the game's best to clean up a couple mistakes and then they just wait you out until they get a handful of great chances to win a hockey game. In these kinds of games, special teams can play a huge role. +1 or -1 on special teams is often the difference in a tight game. Coming in, the Canes special teams are playing extremely well. For me, that was the biggest positive from Saturday's loss. The Canes created a bunch of good chances moving the puck on the powerplay that led to a couple almost goals and then scored anyway with the "flex the defense for a shooting lane and let Babchuk blast 1 in" approach when plan A did not work. The Canes were also perfect on the penalty kill.
4) Both: Finding intensity level/physical play. Other than the 2 weird carom goals in the 1st period, the other oddity in Saturday's matchup was the lack of physical play. You had 2 teams who were likely to see each other in the playoffs in a few days. Both were assured their place in the playoffs (especially the Devils who were locked in at #3) and had little to risk if they got just a little distracted. These games can often turn into physical wars where each team tries to make a point. I saw pretty much none of that. Checking was average to low. Jawing after the whistle was mostly non-existent. It looked more like 2 teams just trying to get through the last game that did not matter instead of trying to turn this into game 0 of a heated playoff series.
While the Canes are not always the aggressor in terms of physical play, especially down the stretch they have responded and stood up when challenged. Put another way, the Canes physical play often matches what they are playing against. The Washington games are the best examples. So if at some point, the play starts to look like the "ho-hum Saturday afternoon that does not matter" variety, can 1 team dial it up to another level on its own and use this to their advantage? Just maybe.
The unlikely wild card: Goaltending can swing any playoff series. I do not list in my top keys to the game only because I expect good from both sides. Cam Ward has been as good as anyone down the stretch, and Martin Brodeur is just Martin Brodeur. I expect both to be good. In the odd event that 1 of them is not, I do not think either team can be enough better than the other to make up for a big deficit in net. But I doubt that happens.
Check back tomorrow. There are a few interesting things I will be especially watching for in game 1 that I will ramble out sometime either late tonight or Tuesday morning.
Isn't it absolutely great to have playoff hockey again!!!! If you are still dragging your feet, get those car flags out and just leave them there until the season is over (hopefully in June!).
Go Canes!
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