Devin Setoguchi might be the most interesting player on the San Jose Sharks roster, not just for the dazzling talent he displays on the ice, but also for the complex personality he presents off of it. While most NHL players don’t show much more emotion than their video game counterparts, maintaining an even keel regardless of their recent play, Setoguchi is easier to read than a children’s pop-up book. The 22-year-old winger is notoriously streaky, and one look at his body language can often tell you if he’s in the midst of a scoring binge or an ice-cold slump.
Setoguchi’s confidence has alternately soared and swooned since he entered the league during the 2007-08 season, mirroring his up-and-down play. Jeremy Roenick took the youngster under his wing during his time in San Jose but opted for retirement during the offseason, and his departure might have had more impact on Setoguchi than the team itself. Roenick’s leadership and experience helped ease pressure and calm troubled nerves, but it’s tough to diagnose problems and bolster confidence from a golf course in Arizona.
Adding to the intrigue, Setoguchi — like Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski and Evgeni Nabokov — is in a contract year, and the third-year pro (like each of the aforementioned San Jose players) is in line for a massive raise when his entry-level contract expires at the end of the season. Despite recording 31 goals and 65 points during his sophomore campaign, the size of that raise will largely depend on Setoguchi’s performance this season, and that’s why it’s so interesting to see his current playing time and linemates.
During the 2008-09 season, Setoguchi spent most of his 81 games on the Sharks’ top line alongside Marleau and Joe Thornton, and began 2009-10 in that familiar spot, playing right wing with Thornton and newcomer Dany Heatley. Setoguchi notched seven goals and nine points through his first 11 games of the season before a lower-body injury knocked him out of the lineup for seven games. He returned for four games, skating with Thornton and Heatley on the first line, but went on the shelf for another five games after the injury flared up again.
Setoguchi returned to the lineup for the second time on Nov. 29, and San Jose coach Todd McLellan acknowledged they would take it slow, because he might have been rushed back into big minutes the first time around. Bouncing between the third and fourth lines, Setoguchi saw 11:13 and 9:01 in ice-time during his first two games back. Bumped up to part-time duty on the second line, he’s received 14:54 and 13:35 during the last two games, bringing us to the present but leaving Setoguchi far from the Sharks’ top line.
Considering his history of streaks and slumps, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Setoguchi has only one goal and one point during the eight games he’s played since the initial injury. And he’s well off last year’s pace, with only 10 goals in 19 games. However, you have to wonder when the third-year pro will be back to 100 percent, both physically and mentally. Also, while Setoguchi’s recent demotion might have been the result of an injury, is the decrease in playing time simply an injury precaution or is it salary preclusion?
Last season’s 31-goal, 65-point breakout performance put Setoguchi in elite company, elevating him to the same level of young stars like Patrick Kane (25-70), Phil Kessel (36-60) and David Booth (31-60). Kane, Kessel and Booth have each inked long-term contracts over the last six months, and while the price tags have varied none of them have been cheap.
Kane – 5 years, $6.3 million per season
Kessel – 5 years, $5.4 million per season
Booth – 6 years, $4.25 million per season
Sharks general manager Doug Wilson is a smart guy, and he realizes every point Setoguchi scores this season will elevate his asking price once the two sides sit down at the negotiating table. Wouldn’t it make sense to move Setoguchi — a restricted free agent — from the point-factory top line to a point-deficient depth line and decrease his minutes? Of course it does. It doesn’t matter how many points Setoguchi scores during the regular season, because the Sharks will make the playoffs whether he scores 10 or 110.
Best-case scenario: Setoguchi lingers on the second line and doesn’t see top-unit power play time, finishes with his projected totals (29 goals, 7 assists, 36 points in 70 games), and you can pay him between $3-5 million
Worst-case scenario: Setoguchi plays on the top line and sees top-unit power play time, finishes with 40 goals and 80 points, and forces you to pay him between $5-7 million
The choice is obvious, and I wouldn’t expect to see Setoguchi on the ice with Thornton and Heatley very often for the remainder of the season. Of course, Marleau is also in a contract year so wouldn’t the same argument apply? Yes, but Wilson knows that Marleau is an unrestricted free agent and will probably be playing elsewhere next season, regardless of his point totals, so he might as well keep Setoguchi’s numbers modest and get all the savings he can.
He’s not exactly six feet under, but burying Setoguchi on the second line is a great strategy going forward, and will help benefit the team in the long run. The only concern is his confidence, which has been rattled in the past and can’t benefit from a season-long demotion to a line that doesn’t have fancy nicknames or widespread media attention. In this case, it only adds to the interest level of San Jose’s most interesting player.
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