Slowly but Surely, the Value of a Top Tier Pick Becomes Apparent
Yesterday, I posted
PART 1 in “How the Value of a Draft Pick Has Changed” in which I detailed the trade activity, primarily involving first or second round picks, in the final 5 years leading up to the dispute between owners and players which saw the NHL experience its second lockout in a decade.
Although the first lockout in the ‘90’s was designed to resolve most of the financial issues surrounding the NHL and how it was managed, the league was nowhere near done growing and had yet to have a firm grasp on how to handle itself. In the 10 year span between lockouts, much changed in the NHL, yet as the league inevitably wound itself towards the second lockout, it was clear to see that, as an entity, the league still had a long way to go.
Today, in PART 2, we will look at the impact that the CBA and the
NEW NHL has had on how General Managers handle themselves. Similar to yesterday’s piece, I will focus on trades specific to first and second round picks, while including all notable trades.
2005: LOCKOUT ENDS
At the end of the lockout, the NHL began its new era of a self-imposed salary cap.
The new cap system was supposed to resolve all of the issues that the league was facing, primarily providing competitive parity and regulating expenditures and revenues. The newly constructed formula seemed tenuous at first, but as time has passed, the system has handled itself fairly well. Well, at least in comparison to the days prior to the CBA when it was a purely free market with no spending limit or structure for that matter.
At the start of the new era in the NHL, the cap limit was set at a paltry $39 million. That figure was well below some of the clubs salary totals from before the lockout, but none of that mattered anymore as everyone was now forced to play on the same, even, playing field.
And so, with parity in place, here is a look at how the CBA has affected the value of drafting and development in the 4 years since the lockout. (I have not included the recently completed season as a full assessment cannot be made without seeing how the Draft and Free Agency play out.)
- Please note that it is not a fully detailed list, rather a numerical tally. For the sake of conversation, I have also added in the notable trades from each year, whether they be players or picks. I did not include the amount of 3rd round picks(or later) that were traded.
June 2005 – September 2006:
Regular Season
1st rounders: 2
2nd rounders: 1
Trade Deadline Day, March 9, 2006: The ‘Canes acquire Mark Recchi from the Pens for Kolanos, Nordgren and a 2nd rounder in ’07. The Predators trade Kris Beech and their 1st rounder(eventually Semyon Varlamov) to the Caps for Brendan Witt.
1st rounders: 1
2nd rounders: 8
Draft: June 24, 2006
1st rounders: 1
2nd rounders: 2
Free Agency:
1st rounders: 2
2nd rounders: 5
Draft Notes:
- The Canucks sent Todd Bertuzzi, Bryan Allen and Alex Auld to the Panthers for Roberto Luongo, Lukas Krajicek and a 6th rounder in ‘06(Sergei Shirokov).
- The Wild trade Pavol Demitra to the Kings for a 1st rounder(Minnesota’s) which wound up being Trevor Lewis.
- The Leafs trade Tuuka Rask to the Bruins for Andrew Raycroft.
Trade Notes:
- The Oilers and Islanders swapped Michael Peca for Mike York and a conditional pick.
- The Flyers traded Jeremy Roenick and a 3rd rounder to the Kings for a 2nd rounder in ’06.
- The Thrashers traded Dany Heatley to the Senators for Marian Hossa and Greg de Vries.
- In November, the Blue Jackets acquired Sergei Fedorov and a 5th rounder from the Ducks for Francois Beauchemain and Tyler Wright.
- The big trades continued at the end of November as the Bruins sent Joe Thornton to the San Jose Sharks for Marco Sturm, Brad Stuart and Wayne Primeau.
- In December, the Flyers traded Patrick Sharp and Eric Meloche to the Blackhawks for Matt Ellison and a 3rd rounder.
- In January, the Flyers acquired Petr Nedved for Dennis Seidenberg.
- At the end of January, the Hurricanes acquired Doug Weight and Erkki Rajamaki from the Blues for Boulerice, Zigomanis, Kahnberg, a 1st rounder, Toronto’s 4th round pick in ’06 and Chicago’s 4th rounder pick in ’07.
- In the days leading up to the trade deadline, the Oilers traded their 1st round pick in ’06 to the Wild for Dwayne Roloson.(The Wild eventually flipped the first rounder to the Kings for Pavol Demitra)
- The day prior to the deadline, the Habs sent Jose Theodore to Colorado for David Aebischer
Free Agency Notes:
- The Oilers acquire Joffrey Lupul, Ladislav Smid, a 1st in ’07, a conditional 1st in ’08 and a 2nd rounder in ’08 from the Anaheim Ducks for Chris Pronger.
- In the days leading up to the 2006-07 season, the Kings traded Tim Gleason and Eric Belanger to the Hurricanes for Jack Johnson and Oleg Tverdovsky.
- The Canadiens traded Mike Ribeiro and a 6th round pick to the Stars for Janne Niinimaa and a 5th round pick(Andrew Conboy).
Totals:
| Time of Year | 1st Rounders | 2nd Rounders |
Regular Season | 2 | 1 |
Trade Deadine | 1 | 8 |
Draft/Free Agency | 3 | 8 |
- The end result of the lockout didn’t appear to be much of a factor in tempering General Managers resolve to hang on to high level picks, but what was interesting to note were the names of the 1st round picks that were traded. In total, there were 6 First Rounders traded while an astonishing 17 Second Rounders were swapped. Not only were important First Rounders traded, but considering that this was the first season back on the ice, there were also a ton of important players exchanged. This season may not have been as telling of the impact that the CBA was going to have on the NHL, but it did prove that, with a need to balance themselves, many teams were forced into moves they likely may not have made pre-lockout.
October 2006– September 2007:
Regular Season
1st rounders: 6
2nd rounders: 4
Trade Deadline Day, February 27, 2007: On deadline day, the Blues sent Bill Guerin to the Sharks for Ville Nieminen, Jay Barriball and a 1st rounder in ’07. The Caps acquired Jiri Novotny and a 1st rounder from the Sabres for Dainius Zubrus and Timo Helbling. The Stars acquire Norstrom, Pushkarev a 3rd and 4th rounder in ’07 from the Kings for Modry, Fransson, a 1st in ’08, a 2nd rounder in ’07 and a 3rd rounder in ’07. The Oilers trade Ryan Smyth to the Islanders for Robert Nilsson, Ryan O’Marra and a 1st round pick in ’07.
1st rounders: 4
2nd rounders: 4
Draft: June 22, 2007
1st rounders: 2
2nd rounders: 0
Free Agency:
1st rounders: 1
2nd rounders: 1
Draft Notes:
- The Leafs acquire Vesa Toskala and Mark Bell from the Sharks for the 13th and 44th overall picks in 2007 (traded to Blues to move up in draft and select Logan Couture), plus a 4th rounder in ’09.
- The Predators trade Tomas Vokoun to the Florida Panthers for a 1st and 2nd round pick in ’07 and a 2nd round pick in ‘08
Trade Notes:
- Right off the bat, on October 1st, the Devils acquired Alexander Korolyuk and Jim Fahey for Vladimir Malakhov and a conditional 1st.
- In November the Ducks acquired George Parros from the Avalanche for a 2nd round pick(TJ Galiardi).
- In February, the Bruins acquired Bochenski and a conditional 5th round pick from the Blackhawks for Kris Versteeg.
- The Stars acquired Ladislav Nagy from the Coyotes for a 1st round pick in ’07 and Mathias Tjarnqvist.
- On February 15th, the Flyers sent Peter Forsberg to the Predators for Scottie Upshall, Ryan Parent, a 1st and a 3rd rounder in ’07.
- Days before the trade deadline, the Thrashers acquired Keith Tkachuk from the Blues for Glen Metropolit, a 1st and 3rd rounder in ’07, a conditional 1st rounder and a 2nd rounder in ’08.
- The Sharks acquired Craig Rivet and a 5th rounder from the Canadiens for Josh Gorges and a 1st rounder in ‘07(Max Pacioretty).
-
Free Agency Notes:
- In the days leading up to the Draft, the Flyers acquired Timonen and Hartnell for Nashville’s 1st rounder in ‘07(Jon Blum).
Totals:
| Time of Year | 1st Rounders | 2nd Rounders |
Regular Season | 6 | 4 |
Trade Deadine | 4 | 4 |
Draft/Free Agency | 3 | 1 |
- In another busy year of trade activity, there was a flurry of 1st rounders that were traded(13). This was more of a result of teams accumulating great amounts of future draft choices and then flipping them for proven veterans. As we eventually learn, most of the 1st rounders that went on to be flipped for veterans have turned out to be quality NHL’ers today. There was a decrease in the exchange of 2nd round picks as only were traded(9), half as many as the year before(18).
October 2007 – September 2008:
Regular Season
1st rounders: 0
2nd rounders: 1
-
Trade Deadline Day, February 26, 2008: In February of 2008, the Sharks acquired Brian Campbell and a 7th round pick from the Sabres for Steve Bernier and a 1st round pick in ’08. The Stars acquired Brad Richards and Johan Holmqvist from the Lightning for Mike Smith, Jussi Jokinen and a 4th round pick. The Avs acquired Adam Foote from the Blue Jackets for a conditional 1st round pick. The Penguins acquired Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis for Colby Armstrong, Erik Christensen, Angelo Esposito and a 1st round pick.
1st rounders: 3
2nd rounders: 3
Draft: June 20, 2008
1st rounders: 19
2nd rounders: 15
Free Agency:
1st rounders: 2
2nd rounders: 8
Draft Notes:
- The Caps traded their 1st rounder in ’08 to the Devils for their 1st round and 2nd rounder in ‘08. The Devils then traded their 1st rounder in ’08 to the Wild for their 1st rounder in ’08 and their 3rd rounder in ’09.
- The Leafs traded their 1st round pick in ‘08(#5 overall) to the Islanders for their 1st rounder(#7 overall) and 3rd rounder in ’08 and their 2nd rounder in ’09.
- The Coyotes traded their 2nd round pick in ’08 to the Ducks for two 2nd round picks in ’08. They then traded Olli Jokinen to the Panthers for Keith Ballard, Nick Boynton and their 2nd round pick in ’08.
- The Caps traded Steve Eminger and their 3rd rounder in ’08 to the Flyers for their 1st rounder in ’08.
- The Predators traded their 1st rounder in ’08 to the Senators for their 1st rounder in ’08 and 3rd rounder in ’09. Nashville then flipped that 1st round pick to the Islanders for New York’s 1st and 2nd rounders in ’08.
- The Kings traded their 1st rounder in ’08 to the Sabres for their 1st rounder in ’08 and their 3rd rounder in ’09. The Kings then swapped two 1st rounders to the Ducks for Anaheim’s 1st rounder in ’08. Following that trade, LA promptly sent Mike Cammalleri and a 2nd rounder in ’08 to Calgary for their 1st rounder in ’08 and their 2nd rounder in ’09.
- The Canadiens traded their 1st rounder in ’08 and 2nd rounder in ’09 Calgary for Alex Tanguay and the Flames 5th rounder in ’08.
- The Blue Jackets acquired RJ Umberger and a 4th rounder in ’08 from Philadelphia for their 1st and 3rd round picks in ’08.
Trade Notes:
- There was not a lot of activity throughout the regular season. As you can see, only on deadline day and at the Draft were the GM’s truly busy.
Free Agency Notes:
- The Lightning acquired Ryan Malone and Gary Roberts from the Penguisn for a conditional pick in ’09. Tampa then acquired Brian Rolston from the Wild for a conditional pick in ‘09/10.
- The Oilers acquired Lubomis Visnovsky from the Kings for Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene.
- The Sabres acquire Craig Rivet and a 7th rounder in ’10 from the Sharks for a 2nd rounder in ’09 and a 2nd rounder in ’10.
- The Sharks acquire Dan Boyle and Brad Lukowich from the Lightning for Matt Carle, Ty Wishart, a 1st rounder in ’09 and a 4th rounder in 2010.
- The Canucks acquire Steve Bernier and from the Sabres for their 2nd and 3rd rounders in ’09.
- Right before the ’08-09 season, the Canadiens acquired Robert Lang from the Blackhawks for a 2nd rounder in ’10.
Totals:
| Time of Year | 1st Rounders | 2nd Rounders |
Regular Season | 0 | 1 |
Trade Deadine | 3 | 3 |
Draft/Free Agency | 21 | 23 |
- Ironically, as I expected the numbers to start tightening up concerning trades of 1st and 2nd rounders, the GM’s have not quite felt the same way. Clearly top 2 round picks have become perhaps the most valuable commodity in the NHL, supplanting the need to give up youth for experience, instead embracing the exact opposite where teams are only too anxious to get their hands on future draft picks for their experienced veterans. That said, it’s amazing to notice how dull the regular season and trade deadline were. With only 3 First Rounders and 4 Second Rounders swapped through the regular season and trade deadline, the appetite for trade action in the NHL was certainly suffering, but as has been the trend in recent years, the Draft did not disappoint as there were 19 First Rounders and 15 Second Rounders swapped over the two days of the Draft. Impressively, another 2 First Rounders and 8 Second Rounders were exchanged through Free Agency as team management league-wide turned towards building during the off-season. Essentially, this switch in mentality has almost turned the summer months into one of the busiest and most active periods in the NHL, a trend that will likely continue.
October 2008 – September 2009:
Regular Season
1st rounders: 0
2nd rounders: 0
Trade Deadline Day, March 4, 2009: The Flames acquire Olli Jokinen and a 3rd rounder in ’09 for Matt Lombardi, Brandon Prust and a 1st rounder in ‘09/10.
1st rounders: 1
2nd rounders: 5
Draft: June 26, 2009
1st rounders: 2
2nd rounders: 0
Free Agency:
1st rounders: 0
2nd rounders: 2
Draft Notes:
- Outside of the Chris Pronger trade that sent him to Philadelphia for Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa and 2 First rounders to Anaheim, there were no other blockbuster trades made during this Draft as it appeared that GM’s were beginning to catch on to the new trend in valuing their youth and prospects over their experience.
Trade Notes:
- In November, the Flyers acquired Matt Carle and 3rd rounder in ’09 for Steve Eminger, Steven Downie and a 4th rounder in ’09.
- The low key trend of non-blockbuster trades may have been a result of the incredible amount of picks that were swapped the year before, but it has also become apparent that all the current cost of trading all of those picks now has many teams facing cap-dilemma’s.
Free Agency Notes:
- The day prior to Free Agency, the Canadiens traded Chris Higgins, Ryan McDonagh, Pavel Valentenko and Doug Janik to the Rangers for Scott Gomez, Tom Pyatt and Mike Busto.
- The Avalanche trade Ryan Smyth to the LA Kings for Kyle Quincey, Tom Preissing and a 5th rounder in ’10.
- In September, the Ottawa Senators traded Dany Heatley and a 5th rounder in ’10 to the San Jose Sharks for Milan Michalek, Jonathan Cheechoo and a 2nd rounder in ’10.
- Following the Sharks lead, the Leafs promptly traded their 1st round pick in 2010(Taylor Hall/Tyler Seguin), their 2nd round pick in 2010 and their 1st round pick in 2011 to the Bruins for Phil Kessel..
Totals:
| Time of Year | 1st Rounders | 2nd Rounders |
Regular Season | 0 | 0 |
Trade Deadine | 1 | 5 |
Draft/Free Agency | 2 | 2 |
- Finally, the momentum of prior years of trading away vast amounts of draft picks came to a quick halt. It was impressive to note the sheer drop-off of trades involving top tier draft picks, let alone star players.
- There is no definite source for all of this information, so this piece was assembled with the aid of the records found on nhltradehistory.blogspot.com and the oft-uncertain records found on Wikipedia.
It is very amazing to watch how the number of trades rose ever so rapidly after the end of the lockout, only to come to a near complete stop over the last two seasons.
Although I did not include the recently concluded 2009-10 season in my analysis, I can tell you that only two 2nd rounders were swapped during the past regular season, while the only 1st rounder that changed hands was in the Ilya Kovalchuk trade.
Top tier draft picks have, and always will, hold a high value, but as the NHL begins to get its feet wet in managing under the structure of a salary cap system, it’s quickly becoming clear that top tier draft picks may very well soon become the most important assets.
Time will tell, but as I review these numbers, one thing is all but certain, over the last 2 years, general managers in the NHL have traded a total of 4 First Rounders and 9 Second Rounders, something that has been accomplished in the span of one day.
So, as fans yearn for more and more action on the trade wire, the GM’s seem to be going the other way. Time will tell, but it doesn’t seem like that trend will change anytime soon.
This summer should bring a new dynamic to how teams operate under the salary cap as many previous top tier draft picks are now elite players in the league seeking their just rewards. Factor in the strength of future draft stocks and its anyone’s guess as to when GM’s become interested in parting with future top selections.
Tomorrow I will conclude this mini-series with a summary and analysis of what these numbers mean and why the salary cap has had such an affect on how teams focus the development of their franchise.
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