After a weekend of rest, and some time to think about what Pierre Gauthier pulled off at the end of last week, I have come to a few conclusions regarding the Canadiens trading Jaroslav Halak to the St.Louis Blues for Lars Eller and Ian Schultz.
Franchise Needs
Both teams filled an area of serious concern when they completed their trade.
- The Habs are strong at drafting goaltenders, weak in drafting centers.
- The Blues are strong at drafting centers, weak in drafting goaltenders.
- The Habs were still not ready to invest big money in goaltending.
- The Blues are.
- The Habs are in need of all the cap space they can get.
- The Blues have the most available cap space in the NHL.
- The Habs needed size.
- The Blues needed saves.
These simple facts were likely all it took for both teams to realize they were the right trade partners for each other.
But what of the eternal debate in Montreal, did the Habs make the right choice?
Halak Versus Price
…or is that Price versus Halak?
The debate that seemed to have no end, found its conclusion, just as I expected.
If you take the numbers that both Price and Halak have posted over the last 2 seasons and put them aside, it’s clear that you would take the 1st round draft pick over the 9th round draft pick. That is a no-brainer, of course, yet what happens when you do consider the numbers?
It’s clear that Halak has had better and more consistent numbers in less games, yet it should be noted that Halak earned those totals over the span of 4 years and did not play over 1000 minutes in a season until his 3rd NHL season in 2008-09.
Price has accrued his NHL totals over the span of 3 seasons and has not played less than 41 games a year since he arrived.
But does that mean Jaroslav is better?
Not at all.
The numbers are actually closer than people like to admit and so it really came down to the true value of both goaltenders.
Consider the facts;
- Halak was a 9th rounder who was more or less an unknown and an after-thought when drafted. The Habs spent the minimum in developing Jaroslav over the years and had nothing to lose by having him develop into a successful netminder.
- Price was an elite prospect and one of the highest ranked goaltenders heading into a draft in recent memory. The Habs have spent tons more money scouting, evaluating and developing him. The team then went on to spend the maximum on his rookie contract while providing him with their best tools to develop.
Clearly this decision came down to one factor, return on investment.
Halak provided a huge return for minimal investment while Price, an asset that has been heavily invested in, has yet to fully demonstrate what his ROI will be.
The Canadiens also had to consider the “real-time” cost of the development of both goaltenders.
Price, 3 years Halak’s junior, is still a Restricted Free Agent and will remain so for another few years.
Jaroslav, on the other hand, is in his final year of RFA eligibility and holds arbitration rights.
Taking those things into account, it only made sense to retain the cheaper option that still holds the opportunity to give the team a greater return on their investment.
Of course, these were not the sole factors contributing to this move. There’s much more.
Halak’s Trade Value
This was an area of great debate.
Did Jaro have more value than Price? Was he worth a top 6 forward? Is he truly ready to be a full-time starting goalie in the NHL?
All of these questions hovered about in the rumour mill for a few months as the league witnessed Halak make his mark, but were slowly and definitely answered.
Halak did indeed have more value than Price. This does not mean that Price wouldn’t have fetched a greater return, rather that the return for Halak far out-weighed the Habs lure to trade Price. Even though the Canadiens most likely received better offers for Price, they were obviously going to have to be blown away by a deal in order to accept it. That fact simply speaks to how invested the team has been in Price since Day 1.
As I contrasted earlier, the Habs have never really invested much into Halak.
Was Halak worth a top 6 forward?
That would be a yes, and a no.
The fact that Montreal received a highly sought-after prospect in Lars Eller, plus a possible power-forward project in Ian Schultz, would indicate that Montreal got what they wanted, but in futures.
Again, the fact that Halak did not bring the highly discussed return of a Patrick Sharp or a Jeff Carter shouldn’t be all that surprising, especially when you consider that current Vezina Nominee, Ilya Bryzgalov, was a waiver wire pickup all but 2 years ago.
The market for goalies never seems to be as strong as pundits believe it to be and GM’s prove that over and over.
Is Halak ready to be a full-time starting goalie in the NHL?
Yes, that much has become clear.
Although last season was technically Jaro’s first taste of what it’s like to be a number 1 in the NHL, he handled it exceptionally well. He was mature enough to handle the pressure in Montreal, which means he should fare just fine during his tenure in St.Louis.
When it comes to handling the load, Halak proved that it would not be a problem. Along with his 45 regular season starts, Jaro played in 7 “playoff intense” Olympic games as well as another 21 actual playoff games through May and April. He was remarkable throughout the entire run and if there is anything that Halak has indeed earned through the past few years and last season, it’s a starting job in an NHL goal.
Hiller earned his money by usurping the job from an older goaltender, JS Giguere, but it never seemed like Halak was going to be able to supplant the younger Price.
Yet that really had nothing to do with how much value Halak was accruing.
Although GM’s were hesitant to trade for him, the certainty was that they would likely be willing to pay him.
The better Jaro played throughout the season, the more vindicated I became in my claim that Halak was on pace to earn big money.
Now, with Jaro on another team, clearly pegged as the Blues starter for 2010-11, I eagerly anticipate what the Blues will have to pay the 25 year old?
I fully expect it to be north of $4 million and closer to 5.
Considering that, and the fact that Allan Walsh will do everything within his power to make sure that Halak doesn’t get a penny less than he deserves, it was slightly obvious that the Canadiens would not have the room to commit that kind of salary to a goaltender. Especially with one of the top ranked UFA’s in Tomas Plekanec, set to hit the open market.
The cost of retaining Halak and paying him what he was worth was not appealing enough to the Canadiens.
Keeping Halak would have all but guaranteed that Plekanec would hit the open market on July 1st, but now, by keeping Carey and parting with Jaro, the Habs have the needed cap space to keep Plekanec, or in the very least, make him a competitive offer.
Yet, trading Halak doesn’t necessarily mean that the Habs will keep Plekanec, especially when you consider what they got in return.
Lars Eller and Ian Schultz are not exactly run of the mill weak prospects.
Trading for Halak definitely cost the Blues quite a bit in futures, especially up the middle and on the wing, but they had cap space and current young talent to afford parting with these prospects for Jaro, and that is where the Habs benefit.
I prefaced before Halak got dealt that the Habs would only take back the best possible players and wouldn’t necessarily focus on a particular position, yet in the end they managed to do both.
Lars Eller may possibly make Plekanec expendable, maybe not for the upcoming season, but certainly in the future.
Ian Schultz gives the Habs a big body on the wing and a physical force that some have even dubbed ‘NHL captain material’ in the future.
The addition of both of these players strengthens Montreal’s prospect depth as well as creates cap space, two extremely important elements in building a winner in today’s NHL.
Putting the Halak Puzzle Together
Halak was never going to fetch a top 6 forward.
Regardless of how amazing he played, as an unsigned RFA with arbitration rights it was highly improbable that Montreal was going to land a top paid talent for him.
Maybe the Habs could have signed Jaro and then traded him, but that would have compromised too much of the teams time. Even then, that scenario likely wouldn’t have happened as Halak’s agent, Allan Walsh, would have undoubtedly taken the Habs to arbitration, spending time and money the Habs just couldn’t afford to burn.
The Canadiens addressed a need and solved a problem, all without creating a cap problem for next season.
It is a trade that will take time to grow on people, but one that, regardless of how Eller and Schultz develop, had to happen.
The Return
With each passing moment, I begin to realize that the Canadiens accomplished something in this trade that they have failed to do on their own for quite a few years now, land a highly desirable, top prospect centerman.
Lars Eller may not be everyone’s favourite choice, but he plays a game that I have not seen a Montreal Canadien play since John Leclair.
Watch this video and you’ll see what I mean.
Eller is a big body who has no problem going to the net.
He scores most of his goals within 20 feet of the net and is always in a scoring area. He has the skills and desire to find the puck in open lanes and doesn’t hesitate to place himself in harms way to get the job done. He is NHL ready and will instantly provide the Canadiens with depth and youth, but most of all, another valuable asset. His acquisition may prove to be more valuable in the long run as he won’t do any damage to the Habs cap over the next few seasons and will allow them to build by spending elsewhere.
The same can be said of Schultz, although he has a longer way to go and remains a bit of a project, Ian has all the tools needed to become a power forward in the NHL. He is 6’3 and not afraid to mix it up. Along with his 55 goals and 127 points in 196 career games for the Calgary Hitmen of the WHL, he has accrued an impressive 405 penalty minutes.
Thanks to a strong work ethic, Ian has seen his production increase with each passing season. He captained the Hitmen last season and led them to the Memorial Cup, an excellent sign that he may truly turn out to be more than just an after-thought in this deal.
Conclusion
The argument that Montreal lost a great goaltender in Halak isn’t so much an argument as a fact.
Had the Canadiens given up on Price, a goaltender they have invested so much in and a player who has the potential to be the best in the league, it would have been bedlam.
When all is said and done, the Canadiens accomplished something that should be considered insane and impossible; they traded a 9th round draft pick for a 1st and a 3rd.
Thanks to Halak turning into the player he is today, the Canadiens can now boast a stronger team moving forward.
Montreal Canadiens Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»