UPDATE 8:55 AM Draft Day: Brandon Worley of Pro Hockey Talk, formerly of Defending Big D, has a note up
here suggesting the Stars and Coyotes have been very interested in Jack Campbell with the Stars being the most aggressive.
Also, Bob Duff of the
Windsor Star has this quote from Jack:
“It’s a place I’d love to go to,” Campbell admitted. “I have a pretty good connection to Dallas. I’ve worked with Mike Valley, the goalie coach there. To be working with him on a daily basis would be awesome.”
Hmm...
Do it. Now, read my lovely preview and enjoy your
morning.
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It's that time again. The NHL Entry Draft has snuck up on us once again, and it's time for the Stars to add some pieces to hopefully help them get back into the playoffs again in the very near future. The draft is a time to look to the future. It's where future dynaties are made, and where organizations have been known to stumble around through decision making processes which end up setting them back further in their building processes.
What we've been told by the Stars is that will not be them this year. Joe Nieuwendyk came out today saying the Stars will not be moving the 11th pick in the draft. They may move other picks in attempts to acquire more picks, but the 11th will be remaining with the Stars. So, what happens at #11?
Organizationally the Stars have many holes, as you would expect from a team picking 11th. They have a severe lack of defenders at all levels of the organization. Ivan Vishnevskiy was the Stars top defensive prospect, but he was moved to pick up Kari Lehtonen. Philip Larsen is the lone remaining defensive prospect of note, and he should be in the AHL next season. Defense could, and probably will be, a focus in this draft at some point.
In goal the Stars lack depth. At the pro level the Stars have the recently acquired Kari Lehtonen for several years. He has the potential to be a top flight starting goalie, but he has severe health issues. I wouldn't suggest it, but some have suggested he may actually be made of glass. It's an interesting theory, and I have a hard time arguing against it. In the minors the Stars have Tyler Beskorowany and Richard Bachman who both project to be backups if they succeed at higher levels. That's ok, but the goaltending situation is like anything else in the Stars system. It lacks future impact talent.
Up front the Stars aren't bad. 1st round pick Scott Glennie appears to be developing nicely. Jamie Benn was excellent as a rookie last season. Loui Eriksson and James Neal are two excellent young forwards with star potential. Tom Wandell has shown flashes of being a good 3rd line center as well. What they lack up front is a solid defensive game. As a group the forward unit blows assignments, doesn't track back very well, and is just generally mediocre defensively which makes the defenders look worse than they are. A top of the line two way forward would do the Stars some good in the draft.
I look at the draft as such: take the best player available. If you feel two or more players are similar in talent then you take the best fit of the guys. The Stars system lacks impact talent in the minors, and it won't get replenished by drafting for needs which might not be there when the player is developed. Hockeysfuture currently has the Stars ranked as the 29th organization in hockey. For the Stars to turn around that has to turn around.
Who can we expect to be there when the Stars pick? The Stars pick 11th so 10 guys will definitely be off the board. Taylor Hall, Tyler Seguin, Erik Gudbransson, Brandon Gormley, and Cam Fowler seem to be the consensus top 5 talents. Brett Connolly, Nino Niederreiter and Ryan Johansen all seem likely to be gone by #11 also. Two of the remaining guys we'll discuss will be gone too, but various mock drafts vary on the order of the remaining guys significantly.
We're left with no less than 8 guys I could see the Stars taking. The culprits are D Derek Forbort, D Mark Pysyk, G Jack Campbell, F Mikael Granlund, F Jeff Skinner, F Vladimir Tarasenko, F Alexandr Burmistov, and F Emerson Etem.
The consensus pick among the 40-50 mock drafts I've looked over is Derek Forbort in a landslide. He should be the top remaining defender available when the Stars pick, and since the methodology behind mock drafts is to fill needs for teams it shouldn't be surprising. Forbort is a project though. He is a good skater by all accounts, but he has quite a bit of development to go through. He's a medium risk/high reward type that I think the Stars will stay away from at such a premium pick. I wouldn't be surprised or disappointed to see him in Dallas, but I do think they'll stay away.
Jeff Skinner and Vladimir Tarasenko are two dynamic offensive players who could make sense for the Stars. More than likely the best player available at the Stars pick will be a forward. Both of these guys will be factors if available. Skinner scored more OHL goals than either Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin this year. Tarasenko is that rare Russian combination of offensive ability and a physical game. Emerson Etem is another physical goal scorer who could fit in with the Stars. He comes from the rough WHL, and if anyone has a good read on his potential it would be the Stars.
Aleksandr Burmistrov is a guy to keep your eye on too. He has drawn some comparisons to Pavel Datsyuk for his star-caliber two-way game. He has shown what appears to be a sincere desire to come to North America to play. He is the type of two-way force who could do wonders for the Stars, but again, he probably won't be the best player available at #11.
We're now left with three guys who I think will be prime focuses of the Stars at #11. One of the three, and quite possibly all three, will be available when the Stars pick.
D Mark Pysyk (Edmonton - WHL)
If the Stars know Emerson Etem then they should really have a beat on Mark Pysyk. The 6 foot defender has a lot of the attributes the Stars will be looking for on draft day. He's an above average skater with a very high hockey IQ. He needs to put on some weight to be a viable NHLer, but he has plenty of time to do so. He has some durability issues and no real physical game, but he profiles as a safe bet to be a second pairing defender.
G Jack Campbell (USNTDP - USHL)
The Stars have Kari Lehtonen signed up for a few years and dealt their top defensive prospect to acquire him, but aside from Kari the Stars don't have any high ceiling goaltending talent in the system. Jack Campbell is a money pressure situation goalie. He is a big butterfly goalie who can sometimes rely too much on reflexes to make saves which leads to situations becoming hairier than they need be. No one can question his smart puck handling, natural skill, or big game reputation. He won the gold medal in the 2010 World Championships and in both the 2008 and 2009 U18 World Championships.
Jack Campbell is a pick that wouldn't immediately help the Stars, and with the nature of goalie development probably not for at least 3-4 years. However, the Stars will not have the opportunity to take the best goalie in a draft very often. Campbell has been compared to Ryan Miller and Marc-Andre Fleury. No one questions his work ethic, makeup, or really anything about his game except that he can sometimes rely too much on reflexes. He has the chance to be a true top notch starter, and if he is available at #11 I think the Stars will have a very tough decision to make.
LW Mikael Granlund (Finnish SM-Liga)
As a rookie in the SM-Liga last season Mikael Granlund had 40 points in 43 games on his way to being named the circuit's top rookie and most gentlemanly player. He comes into the draft as the #1 rated European skater. Granlund is considered to play an elite-level two-way game.
The most significant knock against Granlund is his size. He's a 5'11 forward. He isn't big, but as Iain Fyffe of Puck Prospectus has
tried to prove, height isn't much of an indicator of defensive prowess among forwards. Small-ish forwards can score in the NHL also. The emphasis should be on talent. The consensus is that Mikael Granlund is one of the most skilled players in this draft. Scouts surveyed by TSN voted Granlund the smartest player in the draft.
The player he is most commonly compared to is Saku Koivu.
Ultimately, I think the Stars will go with the highest upside. They really need to at this stage in the building process to get the organization back on track. The highest upsides will probably be Jack Campbell, Derek Forbort, and Mikael Granlund. I think Forbort being a project should knock him a tick below Campbell and Granlund. If I'm in charge of the draft I go for straight upside and take the number one goalie in the draft.
Jack Campbell would be my pick. If he's unavailable I take Mikael Granlund. If both are gone I'd probably roll the dice on Derek Forbort. Mark Pysyk, being a righty defensive shot from the WHL, is a dark horse in this race.
Enjoy the draft later today. Rumors are swirling about Mike Ribeiro, Fabian Brunnstrom, and Sheldon Souray. Noteable RFAs seem to be available (Andrew Ladd, anyone?) who could help the Stars significantly. The draft could be busy for your Stars. If you have any questions or anything, as always, drop me a line.
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