The MLB trade deadline is approaching, and the free agent market has slowed to a crawl. The goalie market hasn't shown any signs of slowing down, but it hasn't shown any signs of accelerating either. In fact, the goalie market is just about non-existent.
No goalie has signed a contract since July 1st. Six goalies have changed teams for a combined 7.875 million dollars. That is an average cap hit of 1.3 million for each goalie that has signed with an NHL club. I specified NHL club because Evgeny Nabokov signed with the KHL. The fact that Nabokov had to resort to signing in the KHL shows how absurd the NHL has gotten. He was the second best goalie in the NHL last year, and now he's gone.
The theory that a cheap goalie can take you to the Finals is en vogue these days. Antti Niemi, Jaroslav Halak, and Michael Leighton/Brian Boucher made this concept seem more legitimate in the playoffs last year. Antero Niittymaki was excellent last season on the cheap. Everyone knows the story of Craig Anderson at this point also. The fact that these guys found success has nothing to do with what they got paid.
The underlying reality here is that goalie performance can vary wildly year to year. These teams might find lightning in a bottle, but the goalie signings so far are far more likely to fail than succeed. This brings us to the Marty Turco situation. He reportedly rejected a 3 year 6 million dollar deal from the Flyers yesterday. Might that be a mistake?
The rumor making the rounds now is that Marty might find his way to the Blackhawks. The Hawks are a better fit for Turco for numerous reasons. Marty has proven that he can't shoulder the full load of being a number one. He was well below average last season until Kari Lehtonen showed up. He ended up being about league average in net for the season despite the dreadful start. He needs plenty of rest to be successful. In Chicago he would get plenty of rest sharing the net with Antti Niemi.
In Philadelphia, Marty would probably be counted on to be that final piece of a Stanley Cup puzzle. Michael Leighton resigned with the Flyers, but he isn't on the same level as a Niemi which could lead Turco to get into more games than he needs. I think the main sticking point was the length of the deal though. Despite the fact that Marty would be taking 2 million dollars a year, which would be the highest total a goalie has gotten this offseason, he would be locked in for three years. At this point in his career he probably doesn't want to lock in long term.
So am I surprised he rejected the offer? No, I'm not. I think rejecting that offer is a calculated risk. If Marty does in fact end up in Chicago on a one or two year deal he will be one of the better signings of the offseason. In fact, that's my prediction. One year in Chicago to fight for a Stanley Cup.
Also, I'm working on getting an archive up and running. It should be up soon to make things run more smoothly. As always, if you need anything drop me a line.
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