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Meltzer's Musings: 4/13/11 |
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UPDATE 11:46 AM EDT
Flyers captain Mike Richards did not practice with the team today. I suspect he was given a maintenance day -- I still think he's nursing some sort of upper body issue, even if he hasn't openly been taking treatments -- but I'm also not there in Voorhees to be able to find out. Hopefully more info will be available later today from the beat writers.
Unrelated note: Last night, I completed the (lengthy) final installment of the 15th Anniversary series looking at great seasons and memorable moments in the history of the CSFUWWF Center. This edition looks in depth at the Flyers' playoff run last year. The article will run later today on the Flyers' official Web site.
I'll post and tweet (@billmeltzer) the link when its up on the site.
*****
UPDATE 10:30 AM EDT
STAYING PATIENT, STAYING AGGRESSIVE
When the Flyers keep their feet moving and control the puck possession game, they are a Stanley Cup caliber club. On the other hand, when they try to take shortcuts, play stationary hockey and stop playing a cohesive team game, they are eminently beatable. The Sabres are a hard-working club, and unless the Flyers match Buffalo's work ethic it's going to look there are two Sabres to every Flyer around the puck.
Much has been made -- including by yours truly -- of the Flyers' struggles holding leads in the second half of the season. First and foremost, though, it has been more of a forechecking problem and lapses in puck support than it has been a purely defensive issue or a mental block caused by an over-awareness of the score of the game.
For instance, let's look at the Flyers two games against Pittsburgh in March. In the first game, the team failed to adjust to the Penguins trapping style and repeatedly either failed to gain the blueline or recover the puck once it went in deep. This was the case both when the score was tied and for much of the time when Philly was playing from a one-goal deficit.
As a result, the Penguins had a lot of counterattacking opportunities in which Philly had to scramble to get their coverages. Sergei Bobrovsky had to play one of his best games of the season for the Flyers to even get a point out of the game.
When the teams met a week later, the Flyers had tremendous puck support and got a good forecheck going in the second and third periods in particular. Once the Flyers got the lead, Pittsburgh never really generated a significant push over the latter stages of the game. Philly protected the lead with authority, not just because they were better in their own end of the ice but because they made the Penguins work so hard to exit the defensive zone.
Another issue: Too often in the second half of this season, Flyers would establish control early and then experience a drop in energy once they had the lead. In order for Peter Laviolette's system to be successful, the players need to keep their feet moving. When that doesn't happen, Philadelphia is extremely vulnerable to a team like Buffalo.
For an example, let's look at a play in the last game of the regular season. With the Flyers leading the Islanders 2-0 early in the game, they got the puck in deep in the New York zone. Ville Leino controlled the puck along the side boards. So far so good.
But once the Flyers had possession, everyone got stationary. Leino then took an extremely foolish risk, taking the puck back near the blueline in an apparent effort to find skating room or a passing lane to the other side of the ice. He lost the puck to the deadly Michael Grabner who used to blazing speed to go off on a clean breakaway and score.
On that play, Leino took all the heat for his bad turnover. But the other Flyers were also complicit in the momentum-turning goal because they stopped skating and were spectators. If Leino had made a safer play and if there was better support, nothing that followed would have happened.
Self-created messes these have cropped up repeatedly in the last couple months, and it is something the Flyers need to avoid in order to prevail against the seventh-seeded Sabres.
Coming later today: A look at the balance between aggressive physical hockey and undisciplined play that leads to penalties.
*****
For all the speculation about when -- and if -- Chris Pronger will play in the Flyers' first round series with the Sabres, the news that Blair Betts will be available for Game 1 has fallen by the wayside. But that is actually a hopeful for the Flyers in this series.
If you look at the Flyers' record in each of the last two seasons when Betts has been out of the lineup, it isn't pretty. Although he's not a SH scoring threat on the order of some other players, Betts is arguably Philly's best penalty killing forward because he is always in the right place and consistently gets the puck out of the defensive zone. He helps calm things down.
It's no coincidence that the Flyers killed just 8 of 13 penalties over the final three games of the regular season while Betts was out with a knee injury. Following is the analysis of the special teams matchup in the series, originally posted last night. I am in the process of writing up a look at another key to this series: The Flyers' ability (or lack thereof) to show both patience and discipline.
LOOKING AT THE SPECIAL TEAMS MATCHUPS
Even when the Flyers were in a solid groove in the first half of the 2010-11 season, they inexplicably struggled on the power play.
Minus Simon Gagne, the key personnel this season was largely the same as last year when the club ranked ranked 3rd in the NHL with a 21.8 percent efficiency rating (the third straight season the Flyers topped the 20 percent mark). Take away the Flyers' power play success in last year's playoffs -- 21.9 percent -- and their run to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final would not have been possible.
But that was then and this is now. This season, the Flyers' started out the season in a power play funk, got things going in November, and then accomplished little the remainder of the season. They finished 19th in the NHL with a 16.6 percent conversion rate.
All too often, power plays were more often momentum killers than momentum generators for Philly. In the first half of the season, the Flyers compensated through a huge positive goal differential at even strength. When even strength goals became harder to come by for Philly in the second half of the season, the ongoing power play issues started to cost the Flyers points in the stands.
Perhaps the most encouraging aspect of the Flyers' regulation win in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago -- apart from two points in the standings that proved to be absolutely critical to winning the division -- was their performance against the top-rated penalty kill in the NHL. Even without Chris Pronger in the lineup, the Flyers found success with strong puck support, rapid puck movement, simple but accurate shots on net and traffic in front.
Unfortunately, that model was not followed through in subsequent games. But if the Flyers are to perform well on the power play in the Buffalo series, they will need to adopt the same approach that worked in that Pittsburgh game. The Sabres ranked 13th in the NHL on the penalty kill (83.0 percent) this season but got much stronger as the season progressed.
Despite their team speed, the Sabres scored only two shorthanded goals this season, while the Flyers yielded 5 SHGs to the opposition. Even so, the Flyers gave up far too many oddman rushes off turnovers late in the season and SHGs can be real backbreakers. Philly will need to careful to have someone cover up high when a point man pinches and avoid the sort of risky cross-ice passes that lead to turnovers and shorthanded scoring chances.
On the flip side of the coin, the Flyers PK was a team asset for much of the season. The club hit a few rough patches that usually lasted for 3-4 games but, for the most part, the Flyers were a very good penalty killing team despite finishing right in the middle of the pack in the league (82.8 percent, 15th overall). The absence of Pronger and Blair Betts (knee) in the final week of the regular season directly contributed to Philadelphia struggling badly on the PK in their last couple of games. With both players still on the mend, others may have to pick up some of the slack. Betts, however, should be ready to go for the start of the series.
For the second time in the last three seasons, the Flyers were one of the most dangerous teams in the NHL when they got a shorthanded scoring chance. Claude Giroux, especially early in the season, was deadly on PK counterattacks and the likes of Mike Richards, Jeff Carter and Kris Versteeg are also dangerous when they intercept the puck and gain daylight to the opposing net. Philadelphia's 13 SHGs tied for second in the NHL this year. Meanwhile Buffalo yielded 13 shorties this year, including one to Versteeg in the next-to-last game of the regular season.
Buffalo's power play picked up as the season rolled along. The club finished 9th overall on the league with a 19.4 percent conversion rate. Not surprisingly, Thomas Vanek and Drew Stafford led the way with 11 PPGs apiece After a terrible first half of the season, last year's Calder Trophy winner Tyler Myers started to get his game back together, finishing with 10 goals (3 on the man advantage), while Jordan Leopold potted 13 goals (5 on the power play). The goal support from the back line helped make the Sabres as a team more dangerous both at even strength and the power play.
With all the attention being paid to the Flyers' injuries, it should also be mentioned that the Sabres enter the playoffs with less than their ideal lineup. Leopold (broken hand) remains out indefinitely. Derek Roy, who was leading the team in scoring when he suffered a torn tendon in his left quadriceps muscle on Dec. 23, will definitely miss the entire series. Defenseman Andrej Sekera (upper body injury) should be available to play even if he's at less than one hundred percent. Veteran winger Mike Grier (knee) remains day-to-day.
Very often, the balance of power in a playoff series depends on which club gains the upper hand on the power play and penalty kill. Right now, the on-paper edge in special teams appears to belong slightly to Buffalo. But that could very easily change if the Flyers play to their capabilities and not to their regular season numbers.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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