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Hotstove, Ed. 36: Making Our Offers For Bobby Ryan! |
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Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.
In the hockey blogosphere, no topic is hotter than the recent trade rumors encircling Anaheim's prized winger, Bobby Ryan. Only a handful of times since the lockout have we seen such a major name become publicly available this early in a regular season, and by various accounts, there could be a dozen - or more - bidders for Ryan's services.
What's Ryan give you? Well, a reliable thirty-goal(plus) scorer that can immediately boost your offensive output. That, and he's not the most expensive 'buy' at a $5.5M cap hit, meaning he could slide in on a majority of the rosters around the league.
So, I've asked the roundtable - comprised of Mark Spizziri, John Jaeckel, Aaron Musick, Shaune Vetter, Bill Meltzer, Richard Cloutier, Pete Tessier, and Adam French - to answer the following: What team should make an immediate pitch for Bobby Ryan, and at what cost?
Make sure to weigh in below.
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Richard Cloutier - Philadelphia Flyers
Yost has asked our thoughts on where Bobby Ryan could be shipped and what a potential deal might look like. Here's my two bits:
Anaheim's biggest issue is depth at forward. Outside of the Perry-Ryan-Getzlaf line, they have Grandpa Selanne and very little else. They need to acquire at least two immediate quality forwards for a Ryan deal to make sense.
Every team in the league will make an offer to Anaheim for Ryan, so they'll get to pick and choose. Ryan's contract makes him a very valuable asset to acquire.
Okay, here's my best guess: The team that will acquire Bobby Ryan will be the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers will give up James Van Riemsdyk, Wayne Simmonds and a 1st round pick to make it happen.
The Flyers are a team willing to make big moves and take risks. They are also much better this season than many people thought they could be. While Van Riemsdyk is putting up nice numbers, he's not a player the quality of Ryan and we all know it. JVR might turn into a 30g per season guy, whereas Ryan can be a 40g guy. 40g guys don't grow on trees. Very rare type of player in the modern NHL.
This move would bring Anaheim depth and size. For the Flyers, the move put them a little closer to serious cup contention this season.
Bill Meltzer - No deal!
I am of the opinion that, when all is said and done, the Ducks will not end up trading Bobby Ryan unless another team makes an outrageous offer they can't refuse. I actually think a coaching change is more likely first.
Randy Carlyle is now in his seventh season as Anaheim's head coach, which in awfully long time nowadays for any coach not named Barry Trotz or Lindy Ruff. He had to work the Ducks exceptionally hard last year -- when little was expected of them before the season -- to overachieve and become a playoff club.
Although Carlyle still has Anaheim's Stanley Cup in 2007 to insulate him from losing his job, the protection wears a bit thinner with each passing season. Every coach has a shelf life with his team, and there have been signs that the hard-nosed Carlyle may have trouble getting the team going again.
While it still too early to worry about playoff seedings, Anaheim has dug a hole for itself, and is now 12 points behind 8th-ranked Los Angeles with only one fewer game played. Teams in Anaheim's situation often change coaches mid-season.
I realize that Ryan was moved down to the third line after a slow start this year. I also know the Ducks want to spread the talent around a bit because they have scored fewer goals than any other team in the league except the Islanders.
Therein lies the biggest problem with trading Ryan. He's a proven 30-plus goal scorer (although he really ought to be a 40-45 goal a year player with the line he's played on plus his natural ability).
The Ducks need to improve defensively, but they also need to add offense on top of what's already there with Corey Perry, Ryan Getlzaf, 41-year-old Teemu Selänne and offensive defensemen Cam Fowler and Lubomir Visnovsky (who is off to a slow start this season).
They likely aren't going to be able to unload Ryan for a package that brings multiple useful players in return, at least not unless another organization believes Ryan could be a franchise player for them rather than "just" a top-line winger who can score in bunches in between stretches of being virtually invisible.
What's a fair offer for Ryan in hockey terms? You can go in two different directions.
One way is a one-for-one deal in exchange for a comparable forward. Jeff Carter is a good example but, in my opinion, I think Carter has more facets to his game because he's a center who is strong on draws and somewhat above-average defensively.
Alternatively, I think a solid defensive defenseman, a two-way forward with a bit of speed and grit and a first-round pick is plenty to give up but may be worth a team's while to acquire a first-line winger like Ryan.
What team has the trading components, cap space and desire to make a serious run at convincing the Ducks to part with Ryan? I honestly don't know. I hear the same rumors as everyone else. But I will hold with my prediction that Ryan stays put this season, and the only big change Anaheim could make right now would be to replace Carlyle behind the bench.
Travis Yost - Montreal Canadiens
Much like Bill Meltzer, I'm of the firm belief that the Anaheim Ducks would be wise to shy away from a deal involving Ryan. Bobby Ryan might not be a 'franchise' level player, but he's certainly close, and often times the team dealing these kinds of assets away end up the loser in the deal.
I'm sure a majority of the correspondents to Wednesday's piece had Ryan going in a number of directions, but after really considering team needs, realizable trade assets, and perhaps most importantly, desperation factor, there's no better fit than the Montreal Canadiens.
Listen - I'm not sure the faithful at the Bell Centre can go much longer watching this offense toil in mediocrity. There's no bite, no rhythm, no fluidity. Andrei Markov's return is being overly glorified for one reason and one reason along - it's a small hope that the team can cling onto with the hopes that it single-handedly reignites a punchless attack. Markov will help, but not nearly to the extent some fans think.
Continuing on, how many forwards - specifically RW'ers - do you trust on this Habs team? I'll run down the list quick: Brian Gionta, Erik Cole, Aaron Palushaj, Andrei Kostitsyn, among others. Solid, but incredibly unspectacular. Gionta's a nice player, but he doesn't exactly complement a talent like Tomas Plekanec as well as others could. And, even though he's shaken off his early season woes, Erik Cole is a fringe top-six player, contrary to what he was sold as when he signed with Montreal.
Case in point: Bobby Ryan immediately becomes the team's most lethal goal scorer. In front of an already solid offense, that'd be a welcomed acquisition.
Now that we have a desperation factor, let's consider what assets Montreal could send away. Since they're right near the cap, the Canadiens would unquestionably have to make some peripheral moves to clear up the necessary room. Or, they could sell Anaheim on a player like Brian Gionta, who still has a number of years to go in what's already been a very successful NHL career.
The big issue? Anaheim's asked for a 2LC, T4D, and a high-end prospect/pick. Outside of P.K. Subban(an untouchable), Montreal doesn't have much to offer in terms of a proven defenseman. Josh Gorges? Yeah, he's a rock, but it'd be tough to oversell his value to Anaheim.
What I'll instead propose: Selling a second-round pick AND highly-touted two-way defenseman Nathan Beaulieu in a deal. It's a steep, steep cost, but it's a fair deal, and I think you'll see why.
My proposition:
Anaheim receives:
Nathan Beaulieu, D
Brian Gionta, RW
2nd round pick, 2012
Montreal receives:
Bobby Ryan, RW
Kevin Lind, D
Montreal gets some insurance with Anaheim's second-round pick in next year's draft, and also clears off Brian Gionta's contract to immediately make room for Bobby Ryan. Gionta's still a guy who can give you 50-60 points in a season, but Ryan's an immediate upgrade. The second-round pick(~ 50 range) is another desirable asset for Anaheim to use in the future.
Montreal will also get Kevin Lind, a nice-sized defenseman who could provide a but of insulation for the Habs blue line.
For the record, if there was any way to sell off Erik Cole rather than Brian Gionta, I'd do it in a heartbeat. Just don't think he's a desirable asset to Anaheim in the short or long-term.
Aaron Musick - Edmonton Oilers
Realistically any team should be looking to add a quality player like Bobby Ryan to their roster but the team that could use him the most is either the Colorado Avalanche or the Edmonton Oilers.
As the Avalanche do not own a first round pick in 2012, they are probably out of this alleged race but the Oilers should jump in with both feet.
Ryan is a young player who has it all. He skates well, shoots even better and has a physical edge to his game. Ryan on the Oilers would complete the forwards of that team and give them a powerful top six for years to come. Imagine the Oilers sending out a lineup that starts with this:
Hall-Nugent-Hopkins-Ryan
Paajarvi-Horcoff-Eberle
If Paajarvi can stop doing his Patrick Berglund impression, this is a great lineup. Even if he does, this is a great top six.
For the current year it would be:
Hall-RNH-Ryan
Smyth-Horcoff-Eberle
That is a pretty powerful top six and the Oilers should be prepared to give up Gagner, Hemsky, a first and a prospect. A hefty price tag but when you consider what they are getting in return, it would more than pay for itself. However, if the Ducks want more than that, teams should walk away.
John Jaeckel - Nashville Predators
Bobby Ryan and some kind of throw in . . . to Nashville . . . for Ryan Suter.
Nashville gets a much-needed piece for its top 6. The Ducks get a #1 defenseman. Makes sense on the ice. Off the ice, nashville gets quality return for a player they could lose without compensation this summer—especially if they play the waiting game and actually allow Suter to go to unrestricted free agency. Let's assume the deal is dependent on Suter being asked to agree to a new deal with Anaheim. Why not? It's a great place to live and play and the Ducks can fit him under their cap (minus Ryan of course).
Mark Spizziri - Toronto Maple Leafs AND Detroit Red Wings
I think there are two teams that should make a move for Bobby Ryan:
1) TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS
There is no denying the fact Leafs GM Brian Burke loves Bobby Ryan. Ever since drafting him #2 overall in 2005 behind Sidney Crosby, Burke has closely monitored Ryan's progress, even after his departure from Anaheim. Toronto appears to be looking for another top-tier forward to add to the mix. Although a look at the roster suggests the team needs a #1 center, Burke's affinity for Ryan and his talent seems to make the Leafs a logical landing spot if Ryan is in fact dealt.
Three-time 30 goal scorers at the age of 24 don't come cheap mind you. Burke would likely have to (and be willing) to overpay to Anaheim to acquire Ryan after Burke took GM Bob Murray to the cleaners in getting Joffrey Lupul and Jake Gardiner in exchange for Francois Beauchemin. A potential deal that could work for both sides?
Nikolai Kulemin, Cody Franson, Nazem Kadri in exchange for Bobby Ryan.
The Leafs would still have to make another move in order to become cap compliant, but I truly believe Burke would jump at the opportunity to acquire one of his previous top draft picks.
2) DETROIT RED WINGS
The Red Wings are in dire need of a top-six winger. Aside from Johan Franzen, they don't have a natural goal scorer to play alongside Pavel Datsyuk and/or Henrik Zetterberg. At the age of 24 and with four years remaining on his contract before reaching free agency, Ryan would be an ideal fit in Detroit to slot beside one of those skilled centers.
What is an offer that Detroit could live with and Anaheim would likely entertain?
Valteri Filppula, Jakub Kindl, Riley Sheahen (or Tomas Tatar)
Detroit's depth up the middle makes Filppula expendable (despite his fantastic start to the season). More importantly, the Wings acquire that bonafide goalscorer they sorely need in their top-six.
In reality, Anaheim could likely extract an additional asset (draft pick) if a bidding war breaks out between several teams looking to acquire Ryan.
Shaune Vetter - Calgary Flames
Bobby Ryan is a young talent that doesn't come up for auction very often. His combination of size, skill and speed combined with his age, and early success, would make him an attractive acquisition for many clubs. The problem with dealing a player like Ryan is: It's tough to get equal value for a player of his ilk. That being said, it also limits the teams you can trade such a player to since not all teams have the resources to pick up such a player, regardless of whether or not they want to.
Enter the Calgary Flames. Bobby Ryan is still young enough that he’s not just another stab in the dark at bringing in another aging veteran, and the Flames could certainly use a shake-up. Add in the fact that the Flames have some pieces they could be willing to move and you may see a synergy here.
To Ana: Rene Bourque, Jay Bouwmeester, 1st round pick
To Cal: Bobby Ryan, Francois Beauchemin, 2nd round pick
Adam French - Washington Capitals
Another day and another Bobby Ryan trade fiasco. First it was when he was stuck in the AHL labelled a “bust,” then he was an RFA and fans around the league were making offer sheets in their spare time (I’m looking at you Leafs nation) and now he and his team are in a slump and he has to go. To answer the question I would instinctively say “every team with a competent GM,” however I don’t have 30 pages to analyze so I’ll get to my point. I personally wouldn’t trade Ryan despite their need for depth, but a team that should attempt a move would be the Washington Capitals. They have some very good forward prospects still and have quite a lot of depth that they could move for him. The addition would be a dream line with OV, Backstrom and Ryan. Think about that for a second, two physical wingers beside an elite passer...nasty. There is no doubt that the Caps are in trouble and despite getting a new coach, I think some new faces are required. Before this becomes a bash Ovechkin party I just want to say he isn’t the problem and he is still playing hard, he just doesn’t seem to have the creativity anymore.
Trade Scenario : Yevgeni Kuznetsov + Cody Eakin + Alex Semin for Bobby Ryan
I think it’s an overpayment, but both teams get essentially what they need. With Teemu, Saku and Jason all up for leaving or retiring that essentially gives the potential of losing a whole line. The Ducks don’t have the prospect depth to deal with that. In Kuznetsov they get a potential big top line winger who realistically will become a top-6 forward, anybody that has seen his play will agree he is a monster. They get Eakin who has the skill and hard work to be a 2nd line winger. His start with the Caps has been very promising so far with 5 points in 12 games mainly on the third/fourth line. Lastly they take on the problem child in Semin. There is a dual purpose to this in my opinion. I think he needs out of Washington and his lethargic play is mute evidence to that, so perhaps a change of scenery can get him going. Also Semin would be the cap relief of the trade while also offering the incentive of a high risk/high reward player.
Pete Tessier - Winnipeg Jets
The Winnipeg Jets should consider making a deal for Bobby Ryan and they have options to make the deal interesting for Anaheim. The variable is what circumstance are the Ducks looking to change- the roster or the payroll. or both?
There are a number of people stating the Ducks have in internal salary cap and now with the team underachieving they want to reduce their payroll. Others will say it is a case of needing to change the roster with a hope of creating chemistry and improving the team what if the Jets could make both happen?
For the Jets it is a case of timing and the next 12 games will reveal if the team can get into playoff contention or close out closer to lottery position. Should the latter happen then the considering a trade for Ryan makes more sense if the management believes Ryan is a talent more certain of success than a top draft pick.
Should that decision be made to make a pitch for Ryan then I would expand the deal. The offer would allow Anaheim to save some money and acquire a pick.
Dustin Byfuglien
Bryan Little
conditional pick- 1st and 3rd if playoffs made, 2nd if missed by Jets
for
Bobby Ryan
Teemu Selanne
The problem with this deal is there are two players who would have to agree to waive the NTC.
The Ducks save $1 million in remaining salary and acquire a draft pick along with adding something to a dismal defense. The points lost by Ryan leaving are helped by Byfuglien and the Ducks get a draft pick (possibly high) in addition to their own with the inevitabe loss of Selanne this off season.
The question is would Selanne leave to finish in Winnipeg? It is doubtful as he and his family are entrenched in SoCal and love it, but stranger things have happened. The Jets would acquire a premier talent and veteran leader and hero to the city. It's the kind of presence the team does not have- a player who immediately commands respect from all other in the locker room.
The overall premise of this deal is that the Jets and Ducks are looking forward and not now. For Anaheim having two picks in the first round of the draft could be a great scenario for reloading the talent pool. For the Jets, a young team already it gives them a maturing talent and some short term leadership for the current group to learn from. However, there are too many variables with movement clauses that affect the outcome but if I am Chevaldayoff once I know where my team sits after this long home stand I get on the phone if the situation is not improved.
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Thanks for reading!
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