PREVIEW 12:30 AM EST
With only two points separating the second-place Philadelphia Flyers (22-10-4) and division-leading New York Rangers (23-9-4) atop the Atlantic Division, the 2012 Winter Classic at Citizens Bank Park will have greater short-term ramifications on the standings than previous editions of the NHL's signature US-based regular season event. The game is now slated to start at 3 PM EST and will be broadcast nationally on NBC.
This is the third of six meetings between the teams this season, and the first of three in Philadelphia. The Rangers won both previous meetings at Madison Square Garden by 2-0 and 4-2 scores after scoreless opening periods. Those results can pretty much be thrown out heading into the Classic -- I'd say the same if the Flyers had won both games -- because its now a whole different venue and a new set of circumstances.
One carryover factor that is likely to be crucial, however, is the need for the Flyers to score first. Anything can happen in any game, but the odds of winning greatly increase for whichever club gets on the board first, especially if that club can take a lead into the locker room (or clubhouse, in this case).
With that in mind, consider the fact that the Flyers are 14-3-4 this season when scoring the first goal of the game, although they've had problems scoring first of late even in their two most recent wins. Philly is 14-0-1 when leading at the first intermission and 18-0-1 when leading after two periods.
The Rangers are 18-1-1 when scoring first this season, but playing a scoreless opening period and then forging ahead later is common for the team. The Rangers are 7-1-1 when leading after the 1st period, and 15-0-2 when leading after two periods (last season, New York was a perfect 29-0-0 when ahead after two periods).
In other words, between star goaltender Henrik Lundqvist and a team-wide commitment to defense, John Tortorella's Blueshirts are a miserable team against whom to attempt to chase the game. Make the Rangers play from behind -- even a 1-0 deficit -- and they have only the 18th best winning percentage in the NHL compared with the Flyers' best-ranked winning percentage (.533) in the league in situations where they give up the first goal.
Of course, the players are only human and as long as the deficit stays within a single goal, anything can happen despite the daunting statistical likelihood of pulling off a comeback. There is, after all, a reason why the game doesn't simply end the first time one team scores in regulation.
As compared to an indoor game, the ice is inevitably a factor in the outdoor games. The ice crew the league employs for the Winter Classic is the very best in the business -- and you will hear over and over again about what a great job was done with the ice -- but the playing surface will never be of exactly the same quality as in a regular game.
In practical terms, that means stretch passes are even harder to execute on the outdoor rink. It is important for both teams to make short passes and cope with a greater percentage of bad hops. The players in the Alumni Game were of mixed opinions about the quality of the surface during their game, with a few (such as Dave Poulin) reporting it to be fine and others saying the ice was not too good at times.
Of course, even in the indoor games, bad ice is sometimes a reality. The ice at Madison Square Garden is usually pretty bad, even in the winter months. Something that takes a little more adjustment is dealing with the elements. Gusting wind can make things very challenging. Sun glare (which should be less of a factor with a 3 PM start) or shadows can be a factor. Bone-chilling temperatures won't be a factor, as this year's game should be played in above-freezing outdoor temperatures but it'll still be relatively cold, especially if it gets windy.
Beyond that, hockey is hockey.
Neither Sergei Bobrovsky nor Lundqvist can afford to allow anything soft on routine shots. They must minimize rebounds and make a few "momentum" saves on difficult chances. The rest is up to the players in front of them.
The Flyers in particular will attempt to render Lundqvist a non-factor in the outcome by getting a couple goals on scoring chances he has little or no opportunity to stop. The Rangers may try to rattle Bobrovsky by throwing a few more low-percentage shots toward his feet or aimed at the short-side. Both Lundqvist and Bobrovsky are well above-average at moving laterally. Neither is a stellar puckhandler. Lundqvist's rebound control is often excellent while it is sometimes a trouble spot for Bob.
The game-day graphics on NBC and the announcing team's ongoing dialogue will undoubtedly be on the play of Claude Giroux and his linemates and perhaps Danny Briere on the Philly side and Marian Gaborik, Ryan Callahan and Brad Richards on the New York side. But in these sorts of games especially, it is often the Max Talbot or Ruslan Fedotenko role-playing types who end scoring the goals that put their club ahead.
Forechecking and coverage wise, the Flyers and Rangers won't throw any surprises at each other in their third meeting in barely over a month.
New York will attempt to continue keeping Philly on the perimeter as they did effectively in the first two games and challenge the Flyers' physically. Philly will try to do basically the same thing, but perhaps speed the tempo up a tad. Maintaining discipline on a day where emotions will be at a fever pitch will be a big challenge for both sides.
As always, whichever team is hungrier for the puck and makes smarter decisions under pressure will be the one that wins the battles in the trenches that add up to a territorial edge and eventually wear down the other side.
Special teams wise, simplicity is the word of the day. Pretty tic-tac-toe goals are even tougher to come by than normal so the primary object will be to get pucks on net (i.e., minimize the number of missed and blocked shots), get some traffic in front and look for screens, deflections and rebounds.
Of course, there is always the chance that the game will go nothing like the way described above. It could end up being a wide-open affair with the teams trading scoring chances on the rush and a couple of highlight reel goals scored. There are, after all, some very talented players in the game.
Injury wise, the Flyers have now been without Chris Pronger (LTIR, concussion) for over a month and will have to cope without him the rest of the season. A handful of other players, including James van Riemsdyk (hip), Wayne Simmonds (hand), Danny Briere (hand) are banged up but will be in the lineup.
The Rangers have been winning despite an injury-depleted blueline. There is a remote chance that shutdown defenseman Marc Staal (concussion) will be cleared to give it a go, but unless Tortorella was sending up a major smokescreen in saying that he'll use the same lineup as on Friday, discretion will continue to be the better part of valor with the season not even halfway through yet. However, Staal has been cleared for contact in practice, so you never know for absolute certain until the final lineups are announced.
Fellow defenseman Michael Sauer (concussion) and ex-Flyer Steve Eminger (separated shoulder) are definitely out for the Rangers. Meanwhile, forward Wojtek Wolski (sports hernia surgery) is close to being ready to come off injured reserve but if Tortorella continues to use the same lineup, his return won't be at the Winter Classic.
PROJECTED LINEUPS (based on last game and subject to change)
FLYERS
Hartnell - Giroux - Jagr
Read - Briere - Simmonds
Talbot - Couturier - Voracek
JVR- Schenn - Zolnierczyk
Timonen - Coburn
Carle - Bourdon
Lilja - Meszaros
Bobrovsky
[Bryzgalov]
RANGERS
Hagelin - Richards - Callahan
Anisomov - Stepan - Gaborik
Dubinsky - Boyle - Mitchell
Fedotenko - Rupp - Prust
McDonagh - Girardi
Del Zotto - Strålman
Woywitka - Bickel
Lundqvist
[Biron]
KINDLE USERS: Please sign up for Flyers Buzz. For more information click here.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
Join the Discussion:
»