Last night's 4-1 victory over the New York Rangers moved the Ottawa Senators a bit closer to locking up a playoff berth. Although games against teams above them in the conference aren't as impactful, the Ottawa Senators did make a nice jump with respect to playoff probability, up ~ 3.1% to a 97.9%(weighted) total.
With the middle continuing to flatline in the Eastern Conference, my guess is a number in the low nineties should lock up a berth. Since Ottawa's already earned eighty points(36-25-8), a ~ PPG record over the final thirteen games should move this season past game eighty-two.
Below, some news and notes heading into the weekend.
Things Done Changed -- Can you believe the strides this team's made over the course of a single season? Even if the team regresses a bit in 2012-2013, the fact that Ottawa's already +6 points in the standings to last year's abortion(32-40-10, 74 PTS) shows serious signs of progression. Sure, some credit has to go the way of Bryan Murray for quietly restocking the farm while Ottawa was Stanley Cup dreamin' a few years back, but it's really head coach Paul MacLean that deserves a ton of praise. How many more talented teams around the NHL are sitting behind Ottawa in the standings? Hint: A ton. MacLean's a wizard at getting the most out of his players, and above all else, we're beginning to see a team that really plays for one another out there. Really, really stark contrast to the malaise that hovered over Ottawa late in Cory Clouston's tenure.
Gimme the Loot -- Erik Karlsson has only scored one point in his last four games - a power-play goal against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Talk about an all-time slump for the twenty-one year old. Can someone wake the Swedish phenom up?
All joking aside, Karlsson's point totals are still ridiculous. It's almost impossible to find an adjective that describes the twenty-three(!) point gap between him and Brian Campbell, the NHL's second-highest scoring defender(44).
Hell, look at some of the company he's keeping in the NHL scoring race. Ilya Kovalchuk(67) has played a few less games, but they're locked dead even. Fellow Swedes Henrik Sedin(66) and Daniel Sedin(64) both trail Karlsson, as do offensive dynamos Marian Hossa(64) and Martin St. Louis(62).
Did I mention Karlsson's an RFA at the end of the year? Kid is going to get paid. Rumors about a month ago suggested that Karlsson could ink a three-year deal at a sizable number to keep his RFA status locked in through 2015, but you'd have to believe that Karlsson's camp - led by Don Meehan and the Newport Group - would prefer the big-deal now.
Machine Gun Funk -- Am I the only one who is surprised by the velocity coming off of Zack Smith's wood on some of these shots? The kid can absolutely launch it. He might score the majority of his goals at the NHL level within a few feet of the goaltender, but his rocket against Martin Biron last night wasn't the first time we've seen a netminder taken aback by a Zack Smith heater.
Warning -- As stated on Wednesday, Robin Lehner's been absolutely cookin' since his NHL call-up, with a .947 save percentage and 1.60 GAA in his last five starts. Think Ben Bishop isn't aware of the heat behind him? The new goaltending acquisition from the St. Louis Blues came in against the Eastern Conference's best team in the New York Rangers and stopped twenty-five of twenty-six shots in his home debut.
No word on whether Bryan Murray's initial call - or page - to St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong was at 5:46 in the mornin'.
Ready to Die -- The playoff odds of the Buffalo Sabres, should they take a regulation loss to the Ottawa Senators on Hockey Night in Canada. I've been surprised - if not downright floored - by Buffalo's resiliency and compete level against all odds, but even after the run, their playoff odds stand at just around 9% weighted. A road regulation loss to the Ottawa Senators - a team they're trying to hunt down - could be the final kill-shot to their playoff odds, sinking them near the dreaded 5% mark.
One More Chance -- How 'bout it, Peter Regin? If any player's been more written off this season, it's Peter Regin. The guy's shoulder has been beaten to shit in a young career, and he was again sidelined for significant time this year after undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery, with a recovery time of four-to-six months.
Regin's an enigmatic talent, and that's probably being a bit nice. The kid has a top-six skill set, but he's a bit too soft on the puck and doesn't appear to lay it on the ice with enough consistency.
And yet, thanks largely to the struggles of the bottom-six(bottom-nine?) forwards on this team over the past couple of months, Regin could somehow back-door into another opportunity.
Would you be opposed to bringing Peter Regin back for another year or two? I'm open to the possibility, depending on how the Ottawa Senators approach the free agent market and their prospects already in the system.
F__k Me -- The words undoubtedly uttered by Alex Auld after the Ben Bishop trade, and again uttered after Bishop's performance on Thursday night. Auld's been the consummate professional in his career, and has been nothing but class since putting on the Ottawa Senators jersey for his second tour.
There's little question that Auld's run in the nation's capital is over. Seriously have to wonder if his career as an NHL player is over, too. At thirty-one years old, the journeyman back-up might have trouble finding work-flow when his contract expires.
The What - Ottawa's been known to bury a goaltender or ten since they played their inaugural season back in 1992, but for the first time potentially ever, the team has not one, not two, but three possible options between the crease in the short and long-term.
Craig Anderson's the best of the three right now, period. Lehner's still a bit funky positionally and relies far too much on his freakish athleticism and raw instincts to guide him. Hey, there's nothing wrong with having those attributes - I just don't want a goalie thinking he's teflon. And, although Ben Bishop's the biggest goaltender - or human being - ever, he's still a bit raw in his own right.
How did this organization go from zero goaltenders to three in just a couple of years? It's been a bit of a whirlwind. And, no one really knows how it's going to play out. Will both prospects develop, forcing a Bryan Murray blockbuster? Will one prospect develop, forcing Ottawa to decide between a veteran and a youngster? Will neither develop, keeping Anderson in town for a bit longer than expected?
Sit tight on that one.
Juicy -- Ottawa's remaining road schedule. Above, I mentioned that this team pretty much just needs to maintain at this point and they'll be dancing in April. The club has six road games left, and not one appears to be a really dreaded spot:
Montreal Canadiens(2x), Winnipeg, Philadelphia, New York(I), New Jersey.
Remember, though - these games aren't played on paper, and too many times this season Ottawa's fizzled in what appears to be a winnable position.
Everyday Struggle -- Erik Karlsson's now missed consecutive practices(Wednesday and Friday) for maintenance days. Individually, these aren't anything to ever get truly concerned about, especially with coaches who like to give big TOI guys rest later in the season.
Still, it's rare to see a guy miss consecutive practices - especially in a younger player like Erik Karlsson. I'd put a decent amount of money on Karlsson battling through some kind of minor injury.
He hasn't played poorly at all in the past couple of games(in fact, I think he's been stronger defensively), but Karlsson's had a few poor turnovers in his defensive third. Correlation doesn't always imply causation, but it's worth noting.
Me and My B___h -- Late in Ottawa's 4-1 victory over the New York Rangers, Zack Smith and Brandon Prust decided to go, and what ensued was a pretty violent scrap:
Mentioned as soon as it happened that Smith really tagged Prust, and after further review, you can really see some of the damage. Prust can really throw 'em, but Smith's uppercut as they shifted towards the boards was on some Liu Kang shit.
Big Poppa -- Lost in the 2011-2012 run? Daniel Alfredsson's resurgence as a top-six player. Although, resurgence might be a poor word choice, as the guy really never lost it in the first place.
Alfredsson's been battling injuries - specifically, back injuries - for the later stages of his career, and without question, it's had a negligible effect on his overall game. But, this youth movement in Ottawa - along with some much needed rest in the off-season - has really lit a fire under Alfredsson. Watching Alfredsson play, you can tell he's just really living in the moment.
On the year, Alfredsson's numbers are impressive(22G/27A), but what's really shocked me is how titanic his shot still is. For a small guy, Alfredsson can seriously unload. His two late-game goals against the Boston Bruins left NESN's play-by-play man Jack Edwards almost speechless.
"Ba-boom!" was the call, if I remember correctly.
Respect -- Ian Mendes of Sportsnet. Around the NHL, there's an abundance of reporters that'll stick to the same schlock and tired slapstick to carry a broadcast. Ian's not one of them.
Rather than beat the drums of the Ottawa Senators organization, Mendes does his job as he's supposed to do it. There's no softballing of questions to the front office, coaches, or fans, nor is there an obvious sense of partisanship in any of his work.
Many times, local media types will play-up their superiors no matter the instance. Rather than report on what's actually going on, they pump the tires of those around them in a thinly-veiled effort to move up in the ranks.
In journalism or broadcasting, though, that's a recipe for disaster - and criticism. One must remain as objective as possible, and I think Mendes has - once again - done a stellar job for Sportsnet covering Ottawa Senators hockey.
Friend of Mine -- Here's a story you may or may not want to hear: Patty Lalime is still playing an integral role with this Ottawa Senators club.
Well, sorta. See, Lalime's been responsible for the rise of one Ben Bishop(h/t Ken Warren):
"It's kind of a funny story," Bishop, a St. Louis native, said before making his home debut for the Senators Thursday against the New York Rangers. Bishop and his high school buddies regularly went to the St. Louis arena early and scalped "cheap" tickets before games, earning enough money to pay their way in.
"The Blues were playing the Senators and we went down to the glass, and Lalime was playing. He used to wear his pads so loose and that's where I got the idea to (wear) mine loose."
Bishop taking pointers from Lalime? Breath easy, Ottawa.
Unbelievable - Don Brennan's take that the team should dress D Matt Carkner because Erik Karlsson's getting banged around by the opposition.
Look - I just don't understand it. Carkner's pretty much the only other player outside of Zenon Konopka that's added little to no value to this team's overall play this season, and dressing him would force an impactful player on the defensive end towards the press box.
Sure, Carkner drawing in makes sense in the sense of injury. It makes sense in a regular-season game where fireworks are expected. It's even makes sense down the stretch, when Paul MacLean's undoubtedly going to look for a reason to give a veteran the day off.
But, it doesn't make sense because a guy is getting hit. That's hockey. Erik Karlsson's gained twenty-pounds since draft day for this exact reason. They're not targeting the kid with kill shots, folks.
Suicidal Thoughts -- Everything about this organization is fantastic. Get involved, make a difference.
Who Shot Ya? -- Yeah, probably not Sergei Gonchar. Although Gonchar's sporting a respectable offensive output(3G/30A), his lack of goal-scoring is pretty much unfathomable - even for a notorious pass-first offensive defenseman.
It's not that Gonchar's expected to be a goal-scorer, really. His job is to generate offense, and he's far better off finding the open man than driving the puck the way of the goaltender. Still, his 2.7% shot percentage is absurdly low - especially when you peg it against his career average of 8.1%.
If anything, it confirms what many of us have seen all year. Gonchar just misses the net too damn much. And, when he's missing the net high-and-wide, it often leads to a rush the other way. So, erase an offensive-zone opportunity, and credit one to the other team.
Just Playing - Come on. It's Friday. You know I'm always playin' on Friday. Wonder how many of you will understand the flow of this blog.
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