Make sure to follow Travis on Twitter!
--
A couple of weeks ago, I conducted a bit of player analysis on Northeast division defensemen efficiency and total output
using a mix of raw and advanced statistics.
Today -- following an extremely similar model -- I've opted to further the investigation into player productivity for the old Adams division, but this time, focusing on a variety of high-scoring forwards from the Boston Bruins, Buffalo Sabres, Montreal Canadiens, Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs.
In total, there's seventeen players charted on the graph below. The initial idea was to take the three best scorers -- whether L1 or L2 on their respective team --and compare them accordingly, but the Boston Bruins(Milan Lucic) and Montreal Canadiens(Tomas Plekanec) had an incredibly-close points race at the top, and truthfully, it'd be foolish to leave off either of those two names when comparing this kind of high-end talent.
To break down the bubble graph quickly, you're looking at three different elements. The x-axis is Corsi Relative Quality of Competition, measuring the Average Relative Corsi of opposing players, weighted head-to-head by ice time. Simply put, the further to the right, the tougher the competition over the course of a season.
The y-axis is Zone Start Adjusted Corsi, which uses a weighted algorithm to adjust for frequency -- or infrequency -- of offensive zone starts. The theory is pretty straight-forward; hockey is a luck-based game, and the more often a player starts in the offensive third, the more likely he's going to score points.
The computation for this weight is provided below:
Simplified Zone Start Adjusted Corsi = Corsi/60 - (Ozone% - 50)*0.18, courtesy [and explained] Driving the Net.
Lastly, note the variance -- albeit small -- in the size of bubbles from player-to-player. The larger the bubble, the more points the player scored on a per-game basis. Here, Jason Spezza's Jupiter, and Tomas Plekanec is Mercury.
Also: I'll be addressing the fringe top-six players // grinders of interest on the same five clubs in a follow-up blog.
EXPAND HERE
Now, some notes:
[BOS; General] More quantifiable evidence that suggests the Boston Bruins dominance over teams through the regular-season was quite real. The Bruins pretty much dominated the possession game on most nights, so the translation here isn't really surprising in the slightest. Since the Bruins as an entity are borderline statistical anomaly(in the sense that ensuing regression from last year's complete control may be unavoidable), it's hard to use them as a fair benchmark when looking at the other four teams.
[BOS 2] So, what can one takeaway from the Boston Bruins L1/L2 forwards? Well, Tyler Seguin -- relative to his teammates -- was the superior talent this season, and remember, he's just twenty years-old. Like most superb talents at an extremely young age, Seguin was averse to volatile ebb and flow in production, but over the course of an eighty-two game season, his production was monstrous. So much so, he was hanging around with Patrice Bergeron -- who, rightfully so, has turned into an untouchable in Boston. Bergeron was playing tougher minutes than most, driving more possession than any -- all while piecing together a 22G/42A season. Oh, and one more thing: Bergeron was one of the few F who wasn't above the 50% threshold for OZ starts at even-strength. His 47.6% was among the lowest measured (teammate comparables include Seguin at 55.8%; Lucic at 55.1%; and David Krejci at 53.7%).
[BUF] The bubbles are fairly kind to Drew Stafford, but not so much to Thomas Vanek. While Stafford was just a fifty-point player[20G/30A -- 50 PTS], his contributions aside from the points were more impactful and/or non-negatives compared to the likes of premium-scorer Thomas Vanek[26G/35A -- 61 PTS]. On a team that was really shelled on the majority of nights in the shot department and didn't really produce strong puck-possession metrics, Drew Stafford actually posted a positive Corsi/60 -- a feat only a handful of Sabres skaters accomplished. On the other end of that spectrum, Thomas Vanek, whose numbers were sandwiched between F Jochen Hecht and Corey Tropp. And yet, Vanek -- in the eyes of many -- holds more value than Stafford as a hockey player, simply because he's more capable of his work in the OZ. I'm not arguing -- Vanek, when he's on, is an elite forward. What these numbers suggest, though, is the gap between the two is smaller than you think.
[BUF 2] Forget the
Population of Pominville, Rick Jeanneret -- let's talk about how Lindy Ruff was abusing this guy against high-quality competition. Only Tomas Plekanec saw tougher relative shifts, and Pominville still managed to run-off a thirty-goal, forty-three assist season in a healthy eighty-two game season. I'm not sure Pominville's earned the proper amount of praise for his campaign last year, and if he posts similar splits in 2012-2013, the Buffalo Sabres are going to be a serious threat. What a year.
[MTL] Four Montreal Canadiens skaters are listed, and as you expected, one of these things is not like the other. To the hardcore hockey fan, the offensive output from the quartet is unremarkable; Pacioretty, Cole, and Desharnais scored more points than Plekanec, mostly due to the fact that they played against easier competition. Conversely, Plekanec's low point-totals [17G/35A] were driven down for two reasons. (a) He skated some of the toughest hockey in the entire Northeast division; and (b) Plekanec's a superior playmaker, and without linemates finishing on his setups, his assist totals -- and subsequently, point totals -- were driven down.
[MTL 2] Further to this point:
PDO -- a metric that measures luck simplistically by measuring the sum of "On-Ice Shooting Percentage" and "On-Ice Save Percentage" while a player was on the ice -- has the trio of Montreal scorers on the right side of the 1000 mark, meaning they could be bound for slight regression. And Tomas Plekanec? Below the 1000 mark, meaning his season production was more unlucky than not.
[OTT] The fact that the trio of Ottawa Senators skaters -- including Daniel Alfredsson, Milan Michalek, and Jason Spezza -- are fairly close in proximity to the Boston Bruins machine fixated in the Northeast corner speaks well to their play over the course of the regular season. Jason Spezza's point production was obviously the most impressive development for Ottawa in the F ranks this year, but how 'bout thirty-nine year old Daniel Alfredsson out-performing not only teammates fighting for TOI, but comparable talent in the division? His Relative Corsi was off the charts this year, and that's thanks in large part to the fact that he drove possession better than anyone else on the Ottawa Senators roster this season. Oh, and on Milan Michalek? His point-scoring -- while certainly a bit fluky, considering his OZ% and shot percentage[16.5%!] -- came against some respectable competition -- moreso than teammates Alfredsson and Spezza.
[OTT 2] There's another point to touch on here -- one that's absolutely impossible to ignore. After crunching the numbers in MS Excel, I noticed that Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson, and Milan Michalek all had one thing in common -- their offensive zone starts were higher in percentage than pretty much any other player in the division, and that's including the daily ice-tilted Bruins, led by Horton[56%]. Collectively, the threesome was at 59.7%, led by Milan Michalek's 61.5% start percentage.
[OTT 3] Concerning the above: There's a bit of extrapolation and qualification needed. First, credit Paul MacLean for getting the absolute most from his offensive-gifted players, leading the team to the fourth-overall offense in the regular season. The Senators aren't an offensively deep team, so admittedly, MacLean had no choice but to lean heavily on the big guns. However, points are points, and if you can exploit your offensive talent for as many points as humanly possible, you do so. The high-leverage defensive zone shifts are meant for other suited players. Perhaps the best example of this is Alain Vigneault, who almost exhaustively rolls out the Sedin twins(79% OZ starts at ES) in scoring spots. Know why? They're better at it than everyone else. MacLean -- and Vigneault -- are getting their match-ups and winning more often than not. Normally, that's the mark of a successful coach.
[TOR] Much ado was made about the Mikhail Grabovski deal when the Belarusian signed a 5YD at $27.5M, especially since the high number came after a relatively small sample size of production spanning about three years and change in total games. If we're going strictly by the above, though -- it's safe to say he's well-worth the number; admittedly, the term could be a bit more of an issue, but that's grounds for another blog. See, Grabovski was the clear-cut third best scorer on the team in 2011-2012, but it's worth noting that he didn't enjoy the same caliber of linemates as Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul did with one another. In fact, Grabovski spent the majority of his time toiling on a line with the snakebitten and Clarke MacArthur. Good players, sure -- but #81 (or #19) they are not. Another fun fact: Mikhail Grabovski's most common opponent this year was Evgeni Malkin. Erik Karlsson wasn't far behind. So -- yeah.
[TOR 2] More on Grabovski: Considering he wasn't enjoying the marvels of the Kessel/Lupul duo that seemingly scored on every shift, and further understanding that he was logging tough-minutes that only Jason Pominville and Tomas Plekanec could relate to, one has to wonder where his role will be relegated next season. Does the new[ish] Maple Leafs coaching staff look to keep Grabovski in a pseudo-shutdown role, expecting him to produce at a ~ 0.70 PPG clip while facing comparable/superior competition, or do they look to move him into easier minutes, opting for alternative talent to fill his recently-vacated role? Personally, I think it's the former; Grabovski's playing well off of L1, and keeping him in more of a two-way role could assist in bringing down that dreadful GAA Toronto posted one season ago. And, really -- is there any chance in hell Nikolai Kulemin is that unlucky next season? Guy couldn't score in a whore house. I guaranteed a drop-off in production from him one year ago after his 17.3% shooting percentage in 2010-2011, but no one could've forecasted the 6.5% finish this year. Yikes.
--
One quick note: The Ottawa Senators organization was kind enough to reach out to me on Monday, and it looks like I'll be working a column over on the official team web site this summer. Not entirely sure of the capacity or details just yet, but I'll certainly keep you guys posted. Gotta love how the organization is getting creative, especially with new media.
--
Thanks for reading!
Ottawa Senators Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»
