There seems to be a popular theory nowadays that the Flyers will or should move up in the 2012 NHL Draft in order to draft a defenseman. While I have no problem with the Flyers moving up if there's a particular player they covet, I doubt they will move up specifically because they want to address the defense.
The Flyers (like the majority of NHL organizations) have a "best available player regardless of position" drafting philosophy, especially in the first round. If the highest-ranked unselected player on their scouting list happens to be a center or winger, they will take that player. This belief is not about to change.
First of all, there is no such thing as having too much depth or strength at a particular position within the system. This allows for the team to made trades to plug other holes in the lineup, if need be. Secondly, while some players step into the NHL immediately after the draft, there is more commonly a waiting period of a few years until a draftee is ready for the NHL. It often takes several years beyond that for the player to mature at the top level, by which time the composition of the roster will have significantly changed.
Last but not least, using a first-round pick to draft by position for teenaged defensemen and goalies is an especially ill-advised strategy. I will illustrate why with some research I did on current NHL defensemen and the spot in which they were originally drafted.
I compiled a list of the top 152 defensemen in the NHL this past season: the list includes Chris Pronger and the just-retired Nicklas Lidström, plus the mathematical equivalent of a top-5 starting defenseman corps for the 30 NHL teams (although not all teams have five players on the actual list).
A little more than one-third of the list is comprised of defensemen who were former first-round picks and their ranks include some of the top defensemen in the league. That's to be expected.
But as you move down to the nearly two-thirds who were NOT first-round picks, you will find that just as many of the All-Star and even Norris Trophy caliber defensemen in the NHL were selected after the first round in their draft years. In fact, a few of the now-prominent blueliners in the NHL -- such as Dan Girardi, Dan Boyle and Jason Garrison -- were originally rookie free agents who were never drafted at all.
The bottom line here is the NHL Draft will always be a crapshoot, especially where teenaged defensemen are concerned. Using a first-round selection to take a lower-ceiling but "safe" blueliner over a higher-ceiling forward is more often than not a recipe to look back at the draft round with regret in the years to come. Always go with the best available player with the highest upside.
Here is the list of 154 defensemen I compiled from those who played in the NHL in 2011-12. Players are listed by their draft round, overall selection number and draft year. Undrafted defensemen are listed alphabetically by surname.
FIRST ROUND (54)
Roman Hamrlik – 1/1 1992
Chris Phillips – 1/1 1996
Erik Johnson – 1/1 2006
Chris Pronger – 1/2 1993
Drew Doughty – 1/2 2008
Victor Hedman- 1/2 2009
Brad Stuart – 1/3 1998
Jay Bouwmeester – 1/3 2002
Jack Johnson – 1/3 2005
Zach Bogosian – 1/3 2008
Erik Gudbranson – 1/3 2010
Bryan Allen – 1/4 1998
Rostislav Klesla – 1/4 2000
Joni Pitkanen – 1/4 2002
Alex Pietrangelo – 1/4 2008
Adam Larsson – 1/4 2011
Eric Brewer – 1/5 1997
Ryan Whitney – 1/5 2002
Karl Alzner – 1/5 2007
Luke Schenn – 1/5 2008
Oliver Ekman-Larsson – 1/6 2009
Ryan Suter – 1/7 2003
Braydon Coburn – 1/8 2003
Dion Phaneuf – 1/9 2003
Ladislav Smid – 1/9 2004
Brian Lee – 1/9 2005
Jared Cowen – 1/9 2009
Keaton Ellerby – 1/10 2007
Dan Hamhuis – 1/12 2001
Marc Staal – 1/12 2005
Ryan McDonagh – 1/12 2007
Tyler Myers – 1/12 2008
Cam Fowler – 1/12 2010
Sergei Gonchar— 1/14 1992
Brent Seabrook - 1/14 2003
Kevin Shattenkirk – 1/14 2007
Dmitry Kulikov – 1/14 2009
Erik Karlsson – 1/15 2008
Nick Leddy— 1/16 2009
Barret Jackman – 1/17 1999
Carlo Colaiacovo – 1/17 2001
Jake Gardiner – 1/17 2008
Brooks Orpik – 1/18 2000
Luca Sbisa – 1/19 2008
Brent Burns – 1/20 2003
Michael Del Zotto- 1/20 2008
Anton Volchenkov – 1/21 2000
Mark Stuart— 1/21 2003
Scott Hannan – 1/23 1997
Tim Gleason – 1/23 2001
Andrej Meszaros – 1/23 2004
John Carlson – 1/27 2008
Matt Niskanen – 1/28 2005
Niklas Kronwall – 1/29 2000
SECOND ROUND (22)
Slava Voynov – 2/32 2008
Marc-Edouard Vlasic – 2/35 2005
Kevin Klein – 2/37 2003
Justin Faulk – 2/37 2010
Roman Josi – 2/38 2008
Fedor Tyutin – 2/40 2001
Trevor Daley – 2/43 2002
P.K. Subban – 2/43 2007
Jordan Leopold – 2/44 1999
Matt Greene – 2/44 2002
Jeff Petry – 2/45 2006
Matt Carle – 2/47 2003
Henrik Tallinder – 2/49 1997
Shea Weber – 2/49 2003
Travis Hamonic – 2/53 2008
Duncan Keith – 2/54 2002
Adam McQuaid – 2/55 2005
Nicklas Grossmann – 2/56 2004
Johnny Boychuk – 2/61 2002
Alex Goligoski – 2/61 2004
Paul Martin – 2/62 2000
Jamie McBain – 2/63 2006
THIRD ROUND (12)
Nicklas Lidstrom – 3/53 1989
Zdeno Chara – 3/56 1996
Kris Letang – 3/62 2005
Marc-Andre Bourdon - 3/67 2008
Sheldon Souray – 3/71 1994
Andrej Sekera – 3/71 2004
Francois Beauchemin – 3/75 1998
Ryan O’Byrne – 3/79 2003
Cody Franson – 3/79 2005
Jay Harrison – 3/82 2001
Aaron Johnson – 3/85 2001
Alex Edler – 3/91 2001
FOURTH ROUND (13)
Joe Corvo – 4/83 1997
Toni Lydman – 4/89 1996
Chris Butler – 4/96 2005
Michal Rozival – 4/105 1996
Keith Yandle – 4/105 2005
Christian Ehrhoff – 4/106 2001
Jan Hejda— 4/106 2003
Niklas Hjalmarsson – 4/108 2005
TJ Brodie – 4/114 2008
Lubomir Visnovsky- 4/118 2000
Corey Potter – 4/122 2003
Tom Gilbert – 4/129 2002
Kyle Quincey – 4/132 2003
FIFTH ROUND OR LATER (41)
Jaroslav Spacek – 5/117 1998
Rob Scuderi – 5/134 1998
Nikita Nikitin – 5/136 2004
Bryce Salvador – 6/138 1994
Philip Larsen – 5/149 2008
Kevin Bieksa – 5/151 2001
Brett Clark – 6/154 1996
Mark Fayne – 5/155 2005
Brian Campbell – 6/156 1997
James Wisniewski – 5/156 2002
Jared Spurgeon – 6/158 2008
John-Michael Liles – 5/159 2000
Andrew MacDonald – 6/160 2006
Stephane Robidas – 7/164 1995
Dennis Seidenberg – 6/172 2001
Roman Polak – 6/180 2004
Bruno Gervais – 6/182 2003
Marek Zidlicky – 6/176 2001
Pavel Kubina – 7/179 1996
Jason Demers – 7/186 2008
Ian White – 6/191 2002
Filip Kuba – 8/192 1995
Derek Engelland – 6/194 2000
Carl Gunnarsson – 7/194 2007
Willie Mitchell – 8/199 1996
Tomas Kaberle – 8/204 1996
Hal Gill – 8/207 1993
Andrew Ference – 8/208 1997
Anton Stralman – 7/216 2005
Johnny Oduya – 7/221 2001
Sami Salo – 9/239 1996
Tobias Enstrom - 8/239 2003
Douglas Murray – 8/241 1999
Milan Jurcina – 8/241 2001
Dennis Wideman- 8/241 2002
Dustin Byfuglien – 8/245 2003
Kimmo Timonen - 10/250 1993
Shane O’Brien— 8/250 2003
Mark Streit – 9/262 2004
Grant Clitsome – 9/271 2004
Jonathan Ericsson – 9/291 2002
UNDRAFTED (12)
Marc-Andre Bergeron
Francis Bouillon
Dan Boyle
Jason Garrison
Matt Gilroy
Mark Giordano
Dan Girardi
Josh Gorges
Andy Greene
Erik Gustafsson
Mike Weaver
Ryan Wilson
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My article on James van Riemsdyk and Sean Couturier's recollections of their experiences at the NHL Scouting Combine is now
online at Flyers.NHL.com.
Special thanks to WIP's Brian Startare for having me on as a guest on his show. It's always a pleasure talking hockey with Brian.
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