UPDATE 9:45 PM EDT
The Flyers selected Oshawa Generals center Scott Laughton with the 20th overall pick. He is a savvy and physical defensive-minded center.
I was a bit surprised they didn't go for Brendan Gaunce or either defenseman Olli Määtta or Matt Finn. But the Flyers have a good record with most of their first-round picks so we'll see. Some have said Laughton has an NHL up-side similar to John Madden.
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UPDATE 4:00 PM EDT
The NHL has just officially announced that the 2013 Draft will be held at the Prudential Center in Newark, and the 2014 Draft will be at the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia.
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UPDATE 12:30 PM EDT
The Flyers have traded backup goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to the Columbus Blue Jackets in exchange for the 45th overall pick (2nd rounder), the 117th overall pick (4th rounder) and a 4th round pick in 2013 that originally belonged to Phoenix. The move was not unexpected, as the Flyers had been fielding draft pick offers for Bobrovsky.
The second round pick, originally belonging to Ottawa, was sent to the Blue Jackets via Phoenix. It acquired by Columbus in the trade that sent Antoine Vermette to Phoenix in exchange for Curtis McElhinney, this pick and a conditional draft pick in 2013.
The Flyers will now likely sign a veteran free agent backup in July.
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Throughout the day and evening today, I will keep a running blog on Flyers-related happenings in and around the 2012 NHL Draft. I'll leave the rumors to Ek but will update and comment if and when something substantive takes place.
The Flyers are always at the center of blockbuster trade rumors at the Draft, and this year is no exception. I'm sure the Rick Nash and Bobby Ryan rumors will continue to swirl throughout today (and quite possibly right up to July 1).
From a blogging standpoint, my focus will be on the Draft itself barring an announced trade.
Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren and director of scouting Chris Pryor have both publicly stated this week that the team is not looking to move up from the #20 overall pick in the first round of the Draft. However, Holmgren also put a pretty big qualifier on it.
"There are some top-end guys there," said Holmgren. "Maybe after the first five or six players, it evens out."
Holmgren denied having any talks with other GMs about moving up to the top end of the Draft. However, it is not hard to read between the lines that the Flyers would be open to potential trading options that would enable them to move up into the top six picks of the first round. They might go a spot or two down from there if someone they like slips from where they project him to be taken.
If that cannot be done -- and it does NOT sound as if moving up is the club's number one goal this weekend -- the Flyers will be content to wait for the 20th spot to come up and they may even trade down a bit to acquire an extra pick this weekend.
Currently, Philly only has five picks in the entire 211-selection draft. After their first round pick, the Flyers own the 76th overall selection (third round), the 111th overall pick (fourth round), 141st overall pick (fifth round) and 201st overall pick (seventh round).
The 2012 Draft is said to be fairly light on forwards with projectable first-line or second-line potential. On the flip side, it is considered to be one of the most defense-heavy Drafts in recent years, and as many as 12 to 15 of the selections made in the first round could be defensemen. The depth pool of teenage defenseman with potential top-5 NHL upside is said to extend beyond the opening round, in fact. It is also said to be one of the best goalie crops in recent years.
It has never been the Flyers' philosophy to draft by position, and they won't do it this year, either. They will go with the available player whom they feel has the highest upside, regardless of position.
Now let's go through the three courses of action the Flyers could take this weekend.
Scenario #1: Trading up
Despite the Flyers' denials about trying to move up, the the team allegedly told three players in interviews at the recent Scouting Combine -- believed to be Finnish forward Teuvo Teräväinen and North American defensemen Matt Dumba and Griffin Reinhart -- that it might ultimately trade up and be in position to select one of them.
It has been said (albeit via second-hand sources) that Philadelphia has prioritized Teräväinen first, followed by Dumba and then Reinhart but would be happy with any of them. I will hasten to add, however, that the Flyers never interviewed Sean Couturier at the Combine last year prior to acquiring the 8th overall pick from Columbus in the Jeff Carter trade and using it to take the center.
Yesterday, along with the Bobby Ryan speculation, there were rumors that the Flyers may try to acquire the 6th overall pick from Anaheim, either by itself or as part of a blockbuster deal with the Ducks. I also heard that if no such deal is done, the Flyers would consider swinging something with frequent trading partner Carolina (picking 8th overall) if one of players the organization ranks as a top-six prospect drops a couple slots.
Of course, rumors are just that. The reality right now is that the Flyers are picking 20th.
But if it does work out that Philly picks near the top of the Draft, here's the skinny on the three players they're believed to be focused upon.
Teräväinen is a very small (dubiously listed at 5-foot-11, 165 pounds) but dynamically skilled forward. Some have compared his collection of offensive gifts to those of Claude Giroux. It may take a few years from now for him to be ready for the NHL but there are those who believe that he has first-line upside as a scorer and playmaker. He still needs to get stronger physically so he's not pushed around in the NHL and he still needs to improve defensively. But he's already made an impact in SM-liiga as a 17-year-old.
Dumba is one of the Draft crop's
biggest wildcards. He loves to join the offensive attack and he enjoys the physical game as well (despite possessing only average size). The question mark has always been harnessing his gifts into the team concept. In terms of pure skill and top-end upside, some say he is a potential franchise player. He won't go within the first few picks because of the risk factor involved. The right-handed shooting Red Deer Rebels defenseman has a reputation for being a bit cocky and bent on doing things his own way.
Reinhart, the son of retired NHL defenseman Paul Reinhart, is considered the safest pick of the three. The 6-foot-4 Edmonton Oil Kings blueliner is built like a linebacker and has a howitzer of a shot. He is hard-working and hockey smart. Reinhart fits the general profile of many defensemen who have gone on to become fine two-way NHL defenseman.
The question is whether Reinhart will start to become a little more aggressive physically to take full advantage of his size. It also remains to be seen how much further his offensive game will develop. Some have said that if an NHL team hits a home run with Reinhart, they will get a Shea Weber type of defenseman and, if he merely develops along his current path, could be a Braydon Coburn type with less natural skating fluidity. He is a left-handed shooter.
Scenario #2: Standing pat, picking 20th
The Flyers' Drafts under the auspices Holmgren (who ran the Draft and worked more closely with the amateur scouts even when he was assistant GM under Bob Clarke) have had their greatest success in finding future impact players in the bottom third of the first round. They selected Simon Gagne 22nd overall in 1998, Mike Richards 24th overall in 2003, Steve Downie 29th overall in 2005 and Claude Giroux 22nd overall in 2006.
As such, it is pretty easy to have confidence that the Flyers have a better-than-average chance of selecting someone who will go on to become a solid NHL player. Although the staff has fared better with projecting forwards than defensemen or goalies, that need not be cause for concern if the Flyers select a blueliner or netminder with their first pick.
Once you get down to this range of the Draft, it becomes quite difficult to predict whom any particular team may select. It all depends on who is still on the board -- someone projected to go higher can unexpectedly slip -- and who may be slotted one notch higher or lower on the team's list.
If the Flyers opt for a defenseman, there are quite a few potential candidates who could still be there at #20, including Slater Koekkoek, Olli Määtta, Matt Finn, Derrick Pouliot, Dalton Thrower and Ludvig Byström. The rundown on these players:
Koekkoek is considered something of a risk because of a serious shoulder injury last year, and he has correspondingly dropped in many Draft projections. The OHL defenseman has both offensive upside and a bit of a physical edge to his game. He is also a plus skater with a larger-than-average frame that should fill out more within the next few years. He has two-way potential but needs to work on aspects of both sides of his game. If a team hits a home run with him, they'll have an All-Star defenseman. If the player misses the mark, they may have a future Steve Eminger.
Määttä would be a very conservative pick. Good size, good mobility and hockey smarts. The sturdy Finn makes safe plays, covers well, moves the puck efficiently. Don't expect a ton of offense or power play time from him at the NHL level but he's got the physical tools, smarts and work ethic to be the type of set-and-forget defenseman who could enjoy a long NHL career. He's not a bruiser and doesn't take a lot of penalties but he's not afraid of contact. It is not believed that he will still be on the board at #20 but you never really know.
Finn is also a conservative pick at this point of the draft. He fits the general profile of a #3 or #4 defenseman at the NHL level. He is a well-rounded defenseman with average size and average to slighty above-average speed. There is some offensive upside but he unlikely to become a 40-point guy in the NHL. He is reliable in his own end of the ice, but not a true shutdown defenseman. Finn makes a good first pass and skating is not a problem, but he won't wow anyone in either area. He's not afraid to take the body but is not big or strong enough to be a bruising defenseman.
Pouliot is a little bit undersized but he is an offensive-minded defenseman who is well-suited to playing a Peter Laviolette type of system. He's good at triggering the breakout and is a good passer even under pressure. Also has an accurate shot. He needs some work without the puck in his own of the ice. I've heard him compared to Dallas Stars defenseman Stephane Robidas.
Thrower can skate fast, has some offensive upside and likes to engage in physical play. The right-handed shooter is another somewhat undersized guy but he "plays big". The main question with him is his hockey sense. He gets out of position in his own end and has been responsible for plenty of opposition 2-on-1 rushes when he makes an ill-advised pinch or steps up in the neutral zone to look for a hit. Off the ice, he's said to be a mature kid, as he has had to deal with some tough family situations (both of his parents are cancer survivors).
Byström is already playing at the Elitserien level for Modo and did not look out of place in Sweden's top pro league. His coach, former Flyers defenseman Ulf Samuelsson, is very high on his potential. Byström improved tremendously over the last year. He has good two-way ability, but average size. He showed offensive upside (seven goals, 29 points in 34 games) at the J20 SuperElit level but it will take time for that to emerge at the professional level. I think he'll be more of a puck-mover than a point-getter in the NHL.
If the Flyers opt for a forward, four possibilities are Canadian center Brendan Gaunce, Czech center Tomas Hertl, late-blooming Canadian sniping left winger Tanner Pearson and Canadian power forward Tom Wilson.
Gaunce, whom I do not believe will still be on the board at #20, is a player in the mold of the Flyers' Brayden Schenn with a little less offensive upside. He is also considered a fine defensive player (not of Sean Couturier's caliber but still rather advanced for his age). He is a hard worker and a potential heart-and-soul character player with good size.
Hertl is already a burgeoning star in the Czech Extraliga for Slavia Prague. That doesn't carry as much weight as it used to, because the quality of that league has dropped considerably over the last dozen years. Even so, he's a potential high-yield pick late in the first round. He played quite well for the Czechs at the WJC. Some scouts believe he's the third-best European league skater in this year's Draft, although he officially placed fifth in the final Central Scouting rankings.
Pearson is ranked 25th by Central Scouting on the North American position player ratings. He went undrafted and unsigned in each of the last two NHL Drafts. He will turn 20 in August. But the late-blooming Barrie Colts winger has emerged as arguably the best goal-scoring forward in the Draft beyond the top few picks. He played for Team Canada at the 2012 World Junior Hockey Championships (one goal, five assists in six games), becoming the the first player since ex-Flyers defenseman Danny Syvret in 2005 to play for Canada at the WJC after being passed over in the NHL Draft.
Wilson is a big, bruising power forward who loves to crash the net and is not afraid to take the body or drop the gloves. He has not displayed much offensive development so far in his junior career, but a few scouts believe that could come in time, as he is adept at deflecting pucks and is working hard on both his shot and skating.
The big question with Wilson is whether his NHL upside is closer to that of Columbus Blue Jackets forward Colton Gillies (selected 16th overall by Minnesota in 2007) or if he can develop his offensive game and become a Milan Lucic type of player. I suspect he's going to be more of a Gillies or Brad May type -- a fourth-liner at the NHL level -- and would not personally be in favor of using a first-round pick on him. But if he does become a Lucic type of player, he could be a high-yield pick in the latter stages of the first round.
The Hockey News mock draft had the Flyers taking a goalie,
Brynäs Gävle prospect Oscar Dansk, with the 20th pick. While I think they'd prefer to draft a position player, I would not be totally shocked if THN's projection came to fruition. The team would have to feel that Dansk's potential as a future NHL starting goalie is higher than the projected upside of the available position players.
Based upon his collection of attributes, Dansk is believed to be the top-ranked goaltender on the Flyers' list, slightly ahead of Malcolm Subban and Andrei Vasilevski (who were ranked #1 on the respective North American and European ratings produced by Central Scouting).
Although born and (partially) trained in Sweden, Dansk is really more of a North American style goaltender. He's big, very aggressive in challenging and is the best puckhandling goalie in the draft. Dansk sometimes needs to reign some of his aggressiveness, but has a generally calm demeanor.
Dansk may opt to return to North America next season -- he spent three years at the famed Shattuck St. Mary's prep school program -- to play Canadian junior hockey. If he stays in Sweden to play for Brynäs, he could be stuck next season as the backup to veteran former NHL goalie Johan Holmqvist. However, he would also be able to continue working with Brynäs' esteemed goaltending coach Pekka Alcén (who is considered one of the world's best goalie coaches).
If the Flyers use the #20 pick on a goalie, I think Dansk will be their guy. If they trade down a few spots and Dansk is already gone by that point, they could go for Subban if he is still on the board.
Subban certainly has all the athleticism you could want in a goalie -- he has quite the highlight reel -- but I am leery of the fact there are already injury concerns with the teenage netminder. No goalie in the draft is going to touch Subban in lateral mobility or glove quickness, but no one will match Dansk on raw puck handling ability.
With smooth and physically gifted Russian goalie Vasilevski, what concerns many teams apart from the signability question and the usual small-rink learning curve (a much lesser issue for Dansk) is fear of a potential deficiency in his compete level under intense NHL pressure. The player himself said he needs to continue getting a little mentally tougher.
As such, I think the Flyers will let another team take Vasilevski. If the club does not get Dansk or Subban, I wouldn't be surprised to see them take U.S. born netminder Michael Houser or Finnish goalie Joonas Korpisalo a little later in the draft. Some scouts see a Pekka Rinne-like home run upside to Korpisalo.
Scenario #3: Trading down, acquire an additional pick later in draft
If the Flyers trade down from the 20th spot, there is still a fairly high probability they can select from among a couple of the aforementioned players. For instance, some draft projections have Dansk as the final pick of the opening round and others have him available in round 2. Likewise, neither Byström nor Pearson are locks to be gone within the first 20 to 29 picks.
It may behoove the Flyers to move down a bit, and acquire an extra pick later in the draft in the process.
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