I talked to guy this morning who told me flat out that we won't have a deal in December, but we will in January. That is where I am as well in this whole thing. As long as the people involved can somehow manage to maintain some perspective.
People ask me why the optimism meter remains pointing to the right...It does because the people I talk to still believe when all these games are done the hockey games will begin.
That being said...I thought it time to lay all the cards on the table for me. to say exactly what I believed after dealing with both sides intensely over the last several months. At the risk of alienating sources i feel both sides can gain by me putting out there as fairly and evenly as I can where the other side is coming from. Without this knowledge I could see a future where both sides get caught up in the muck... and with perspective lost..hurt themselves and the game as well...
So here goes:
Where they Owners are mentally
*The Owners don't trust Donald Fehr. They feel he is motivated by delaying the process.
*The Owners believe Bettman has stayed two steps ahead of Fehr.
*The NHL Lawyer Batterman has done a good job at predicting Fehr's next move.
*They call Fehr the "anti-negotiator" and say the only way he ever has done deals are when the players essentially over-throw him.
*The Owners think Fehr isn't telling the players the whole story.
*The Owners feel by making whole the contracts they are stripping to get to 50/50 and only asking for the "3 issues" they are being more than fair.
*The Owners realize there is room on the three issues, but need to know "Is that all there is?"
*The Owners don't believe Fehr will ever run out of issues and will drag this into decertification because that is the legacy he wants to keep for himself. He doesn't care about "Our" sport, he wants to bring on decertification.
*The Owners think that if they give in on those issues and Fehr "wins" he will be emboldened by the players and there will be a strike next time to eliminate the salary cap
Possible Mistakes the NHL has made
*The opening volley by Gary and the NHL. Their initial serve was a CBA that was so far in their favor that it really became a rallying point for the CBA. The NHL will tell you though that first volley wasn't that initial proposal. "The initial and biggest blow was made by the NHLPA when they hired Donald Fehr," I have been told.
*saying publicly the 5 Year contracts were "The Hill we'd die on." Even were that the case, saying it publicly once again rallied the players who watched on their computers all around the globe.
What the Owners are demanding.
Remember when Fehr was telling us the deal was close to resolution? As he listed a group of things that were in his opinion agreed upon someone in the press asked him, "So what is left?"
Fehr responded, "Oh just a few transitional things we need to work out, and a couple of pension details."
He said it very under his breath and quickly and at the time we were all so baffled and intoxicated by what sounded like good news it flew under the radar...But it didn't for the NHL.
Last night I wrote the NHL wants a "Take it or Leave it" deal from Fehr and many have assumed the NHL wants that because it would take the pressure off of the NHL's take it or leave it deal...While that is probably a big part of it, the real reason the NHL wants a take it or leave it COMPLETE deal is the NHL wants to see where the NHLPA stands on EVERYTHING.
Fehr has used a lot of methods in his quest to control these negotiations. 1. He is ALWAYS late for every meeting. Sometimes several hours late.. 2. He has never really come to the league with a complete proposal addressing everything. The NHL feels they agree to the shorter term CBA and they agree to 8 year contract limits and those "Just a few transitional things we need to work out" will become the next issues delaying the process.
As a source said, "We are in December and this negotiating one thing at a time thing is so counter productive I can't even tell you."
Where the Players are mentally
*The Players don't trust Gary Bettman. They feel he is motivated by delaying the process.
*The Players feel Fehr has been two steps in front of Bettman and has predicted all of Gary's moves.
*They feel Gary talks down to them and treats them like crap in the negotiating sessions.
*They feel they have given up a ton already by dropping immediately to 50% and shouldn't have to give up ANY other rights as well.
*They want a short term CBA because they believe in Fehr and believe in 5 years he could go after the Hard Cap and win.
*They are probably more unified than at any point in this process.
*The players who are part of the traveling group with Fehr have completely bought in and are willing to sacrifice their own careers and the careers of many other current players for the future players.
*The players not traveling with Fehr have bought in less, but as hockey players will do...they have the backs of the players with Fehr.
Possible BIGGEST Mistake the NHLPA has made
*Constantly disrespecting billionaire owners (who do own hockey teams and truly do love the game) by showing up as much as 4-6 hours late to scheduled meetings.
*After two days building trust with the owners in the owners/players only meeting the players knowingly were part of Donald Fehr playing the fans/NHL media by telling them a deal was basically agreed to then acting all surprised when Daly left Steve Fehr a voicemail saying they weren't close.
What they are demanding.
The players want longer than 5 year contracts and a shorter CBA. They especially DON'T want to be told anything is non-negotiable. They want a solid pension agreement. They want to be respected. They want the full 380M make whole.
A Desperate Cry for Perspective
If I had said to either side a year ago these three issues would be the only issues left both sides would have been jumping for joy....and yet now some on each side are talking tough and saying CBA length and max contract lengths could cost us a season.
When we all talked a year ago there was really one issue that both sides were telling me mattered and could put the season in jeopardy.
The Owners needed the players share to drop to 50%.
The Players needed the owners to honor the contracts they had previously agreed to.
That was it.
I had players telling me the 50% wouldn't be a huge deal after a few years and I had Owners telling me they wouldn't miss a single game over any of the contractual issues. How I wish those September's owners and players could jump in a time machine and shake some sense into December's owners and players.
As Bettman has said "Collective Barganing is hard work." What he didn't say is why it is so hard. It is hard because when you are heavy in it the human competitive brain gets lost. We all can sit back and say, and have said quite accurately, where this whole thing is heading, but the closer you get to the focal people in this the harder it becomes to see the forest through the trees. Losing perspective is so easy and knowing you have lost perspective is so bleeping hard.
It is no coincidence that bringing new people into the negotiations last week saw immediate results. New people haven't had their brains sucked from them...yet
How do you know when perspective is gone?
Perspective is lost when 5 year contracts becomes a hill to die on for either side.
Perspective is lost when the owners consider a factor in their negotiations: "Will losing a season be better than Fehr claiming a victory and unifying the union more for the next hellish CBA."
Perspective is lost when players are willing to hurt their own families and miss paychecks over issues which the other side says they need and the players can't prove hurt them in any way.
Perspective is lost when everyone is willing to wait until January to set a drop dead date.
I may not know much, but I can promise you that if a season is lost over the little bit that is left BOTH sides will wake up sometime in February and say, "What the hell did we do? What were we thinking?"
Many of the fans have completely checked out. Some are actually starting to look at a 48 games season as an "NHL Money Grab/Sham of a season."
If the NHL and NHLPA take anything away from fan backlash realize the second fans start looking at the season NOT being cancelled as a MONEY grab for both sides you are done.
Someone asked me today what I thought would happen?
Someone asks me this almost three times an hour.
I still maintain both sides set out with an agenda to start with and I believe both sides have accomplished that agenda. So there will be a season. What is left now is the final 3 minutes of a 7-2 game 1 of a home and home series. What is left now is each side taking runs and picking fight to set the tone for next time.
The Owners have gotten the cost certainty which all believed they did indeed need to get.
The Players have gotten the owners to agree to essentially honor the contracts that were signed.
What will forever be debated was why we had miss any games to get to this obvious ending? It is a pointless exercise and in some ways I sense both sides are a bit embarrassed by the fact this was so obvious and easy.
The contractual issues are like the dental plan of this CBA. The owners can't cut the salaries AND cut the dental plan in the same negotiation and not expect fallout. They can try though.
What I think will happen is the owners will split the contractual issues into two parts. Give the players no limit in exchange for the 5% variance. The 5% variance will be effective in shortening the sorts of contracts that are in fact hurting the game....but also not kill the midrange players....(in my opinion they don't any way...but the players feel they do)
Even if that compromise is not going to happen the owners will probably give up on the contractual issues at some point here...just as they have given up on issues since getting the 50%. The only reason they wouldn't would be out of fear of Fehr getting more power as a result of the players perceiving Fehr won. Any player who would call this a "win" for Fehr I would question intensely.
If the owners give up the contractual issues all that has really happened is a net zero. The contractual issues haven't gotten better or worse than the last CBA. At the end of the day the percentage is 50% not 57%.
Where the players have won is if the make whole is around $300...
If the contractual issues stay as they were and the make whole is in effect all of this was over one single issue...Paying the players 50% instead of 57% and the owners make whole helps smooth the transition over. Why such a CBA could not have been drawn up last June is a question....well let's just not go there.
I will end with the paragraph which will solidify that both sides will hate me....and to be honest if a few stop talking to me after I say it I wouldn't have a problem with that because I know people on both sides who believe this to be true as well. Many reporters feel they must cozy up to one side or another. I know how important access to information is, however really good relationships are built on honesty and the ability to speak freely. The sources I trust, my go-to sources, on both sides know me and they know I am only out for the game here.
Anyway here goes:
The owners have to cave on the contractual issues. The owners will eventually save the game. Not the players. That is not a knock on the players but there is only one side who quite literally "owns" this game. This is the owners game to save. Some owners are letting their ego's get the better of them and are so pissed at last Thursday they are forgetting the fact they bought NHL teams because they love the game and want to own NHL teams. Defeating Fehr can not be in the top ten reasons to do
anything you do. Don't concern yourself with Fehr and getting rid of him. Don't get caught up in the lore of Donald Fehr, MLB, and the rest. There will always be another Donald Fehr. He isn't a magician. In fact he has actually at times shown to be using very classic/almost amateur methods...Getting rid of him vs. giving him more power is a game that is actually way below you. You have a sport with momentum. I have heard countless times now how the owners believe that Fehr has no care for the game and doesn't get its cultures...I have heard some say Fehr would be just as happy with no season. I don't believe that, but if the owners want to cancel a season just to NOT give Donald Fehr more power is a fool's game if ever there were one.
As for the players. I am disappointed that the players didn't jump in and save the game last week. They allowed the NHL to keep their December money over a few issues which Fehr made far worse than they really are. I hate the backlash the players are facing from the fans and I wish the players had stepped up. I wish someone not all riled up in the conference room at the Weston Times Square had the perspective and the ability to show the players how the NHL was playing them by making issues that are actually mutually beneficial to both sides into take it or leave it issues. The owners who put the $300M on the table needed a win as well and it was right there. The opportunity was there to be had and Fehr 100% blew it. My opinion of Fehr was greatly changed by his unwillingness to see the forest through the trees and in doing so.. costing the players millions in December checks. The second the NHL put 300M on the table and left Arbitration and UFA untouched was the second the NHLPA had their best deal AND a chance to collect December money.
As for the fans....I get a sense the CBA term will end up around 8 years...Both sides need to get some perspective about that decision. Both should be required to hang out on twitter for a day or so to get the fan's perspective. Anything less than a decade without this silliness is the least the NHL and the NHLPA could do.
more to come
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