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Oilers Desire to Make Deals Now? None |
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There are three types of players in this world: Those you trade, and those you hang on to.
Sorry, I'm bad at math.
As the Oilers move forward, we know certain players aren't going anywhere: Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz, Jordan Eberle, and Nail Yakupov. You can completely ignore any trade rumor involving these five, because it's bogus.
There's another group of players who I wouldn't call "untouchable" but it's very highly unlikely any of these players would be moved: Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Teemu Hartikainen, Magnus Paajarvi, Oscar Klefbom.
Eklund just mentioned Paajarvi in a rumor, so I wanted to address him specifically and immediately. Ryan Smyth is getting old, and he'll need to be replaced on the roster. Ryan Jones and Lennart Petrell are on the last years of their contracts, and may or may not be re-signed. Ben Eager can't stay healthy. The Oilers are going to have Bottom 6 forward problems as they move forward.
While Paajarvi hasn't turned into the point producer the Oilers hoped he could be, they really like him as a person and they like how he is developing. They see his defensive game as being extremely strong. Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer, who works directly with the team, has suggested Oilers management have a line of Paajarvi - Anton Lander - Hartikainen penciled in as the Oilers 3rd line perhaps as soon as the start of next season.
I'm not saying Magnus Paajarvi isn't being shopped. If the Oilers are trying to make moves, he's the type of player other teams would ask about. But I can tell you right now, they aren't trying to move him. They don't consider him soft or a failed prospect. He's never going to be a Top 6 guy, but he's not being developed that way.
Another player I'm going to defend is Devan Dubnyk. The Oilers want to play Dubnyk as the starter for the entire season to see if he's good enough for the job. So far, he's showing he is. Oilers management will not deal for a current or potential starter if Dubnyk's play continues the way it has. I've heard this from a very reliable source. The same source who told me the Oilers have absolutely no interest in Luongo because of his age and contract. Oh, and Mike Gillis is asking for a ridiculous return, apparently.
Why should the Oilers make any moves at this time? 4-2-1. Leading the Division, for now at least. There are some question marks on the roster, sure. But Paajarvi and Dubnyk as of this moment aren't two of them.
So who could be "available"?
1. Ryan Whitney - His play is slowly improving this season, but the clock is ticking. His contract ends at the end of this season, and his contract amount and injury history are two things that make him likely not to be re-signed. If the Oilers aren't going to re-sign him, regardless where they are in a playoff race, it's better for the long-term plan to ship Whitney out as a rental at the trade deadline and get at least something for him.
2. Nick Schultz - The more I see him play, the more I think the Oilers won't move him. I heard just as the season was starting that Schultz could be available for the right return, but he's playing himself into the core of this team. They gave him an "A" for a reason.
3. Sam Gagner - I could put exactly what I wrote about Schultz here. Gagner is playing great and he's making it very hard for the Oilers to want to deal him.
4. Ales Hemsky - If Hemsky is moved it's because the Oilers are attempting to clear cap space for some reason. I don't think Hemsky is playing great this season, but Kevin Lowe in particular adores Hemsky and wants to keep him. I'm not sure fans would be thrilled by the type of return Hemsky could get in a deal, if the Oilers tried to deal him...Which I'm not sure they would.
5. Shawn Horcoff - Oilers have been trying to deal him for two years and nobody is biting due to his contract. He'll be bought out at the end of this season, even though he's playing really well as a third line center. Can you buyout a guy to get his $5.5mil cap hit off the books, and then resign him at $2mil per? I don't think so, but everyone would like him better if this happened. Horcoff at $2mil is a player you keep.
6. Corey Potter - He's been bad. His contract is a nice amount, so that could attract interest. But what is he worth, Cam Barker?
7. Theo Peckham - Peckham has been cleared to play and the Oilers can't get him in the roster because they have seven healthy guys ahead of him on the depth chart. Sooner or later they'll need to do something with him.
8. Eric Belanger - Belanger's play was extremely weak last season. This year he's much improved. When Horcoff is bought-out, Belanger is the $2mil or less replacement I spoke about. So far this season, he's playing his way onto the 2013/2014 roster. He could get dealt anyway, but I'm not convinced it will happen, as his value with the Oilers is probably higher right now than what they'd get for him.
9. Ryan Jones - This is a bit of a conundrum. He is what Fernando Pisani was suppose to be: A functional Bottom 6 forward who can play in any situation. He can move up a line when needed; he can play more of an energy role when needed. He's liked inside the room and he's a fan favorite. Teams would deal for him. Jones is set to become a UFA this summer...you'd think the Oilers would extend him, but you never know. Like I said, he's the type of player teams would trade for, and the Oilers are still trying to sort out a few roster holes like a back-up goalie for next season. Would Jones to Ottawa for Ben Bishop work for both teams?
10. Anton Lander - Lander's looked so promising when he first arrived in Edmonton, but things fell apart. He hasn't exactly impressed in the minors. Yet, he's just a kid, and he's so well liked as a person by the organization. The line of Paajarvi-Lander-Hartikainen as a 3rd line shutdown group looked amazing in the AHL. My guess is, Lander isn't available yet.
11. and higher...Colten Teubert, Alex Plante, Curtis Hamilton, Ryan Martindale, Linus Omark, blah blah blah are all prospects the Oilers would part with if it would help bring a player who could fit into their NHL roster. Of the Oilers prospects, a few of the D have trade value. There would be interest in a Martin Marincin, for example. Or Martin Gernat. Or David Musil. But when we talk about prospects like these, we're not talking about a signficiant player coming to Edmonton. These are guys who could be included as part of a package. I can't even invent an interesting rumor involving dealing any of these guys.
So after all of this being said, allow me to break the Oilers players into four groups:
I. Players Who Won't be Moved
Taylor Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle, Justin Schultz, Nail Yakupov
II. Players Who Aren't Untouchable But the Team Wants to Keep
Sam Gagner, Ales Hemsky, Teemu Hartikainen, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry, Ryan Smyth (who was promised he could retire an Oiler), Oscar Klefbom
III. Players Who Could Be Moved but Most Likely Won't
Magnus Paajarvi, Anton Lander, Eric Belanger, Ryan Jones, Lennart Petrell, Nick Schultz, Devan Dubnyk, Ben Eager, Nikolai Khabibulin (who will be allowed to retire an Oiler)
IV. Players the Oilers Would Be Most Open to Moving
Theo Peckham, Ryan Whitney, Corey Potter, Darcy Hordichuk, Linus Omark, Shawn Horcoff, and a number of low-to-mid range prospects.
What does this all mean? That the Oilers will likely make zero trades this season, unless they are completely out of the playoff race, or unless they're leading the division and management wants to add a quality rental or two to make a run. I don't see them finishing either way. 7th or 8th place in the Conference seems like a solid goal to have for this year, and it's a goal that does not require any huge deals to get to.
There is no panic in Edmonton to make this team immediately better. I was told by a "source" a few weeks ago that the team is setting up to make a couple significant moves over the summer. Much of what they do depends on how Gagner and Dubnyk play, and where they sit at the draft table. The one thing I keep hearing is that the Oilers feel they are set for the next 10 years with Justin Schultz and Jeff Petry as their right-side D players. Ladislav Smid will be kept...so the "big" move this summer could be for a Top 4 left-side D. Stauffer mentioned Keith Yandle the other day, and he's been mentioning Jay Bouwmeester for months. Considering the financial/ownership situation in Phoenix, and just how bad the Flames are, I'd say both are potential options for the Oilers this summer.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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