Mired in an 0-4-1 slump and suddenly clinging to the #8 spot in the Eastern Conference and headed in the wrong direction, the timing couldn't be better for a long weekend away from hockey. After last night's loss versus New Jersey, the Canes get a strange 4-day break. The team gets a few days to reset mentally, recover physically and do a few in-depth practices without burning too much energy. And Canes fans in the Triangle area can go drown their hockey misery with a healthy helping of college basketball.
In the midst of the current mess, I think it is important to note that the Canes are not in a horrible spot in terms of where they are right now. The Canes are only 2 points behind Winnipeg with a game in hand that could make up the gap. And they are also in tied for 8th with the Rangers. So it is not like they need to make up ground. They just need to right the ship and pick up just a little bit of ground.
But it is hard to feel confident about that after watching a stretch where they started way out front and have been watching teams catch up and pass them for almost 2 weeks now.
So how do you fix it?
First is identifying problems.
1) Ability to win ugly. The Canes look very good when they get skating and moving the puck, and it is a game of skating and skill. The grind of the condensed season and competition that doesn't offer the space for this has ground this to a halt. Personnel-wise, the Canes are not ideally designed to win these grind it out, physical battle kind of games, but at least 50% of that is desire, effort and willingness to do the work. Tuomo Ruutu will help some here adding another gritty but skilled body to the lineup. The other part is simply willingness to step out of character a bit and do the work. The 2 real goals scored by NJ last night were both from sending bodies to the net and creating chaos and then winning 1-on-1 battles. The Canes are losing 2/3 of these kind of 1-on-1 wars lately be it in front of the net or in the corners.
2) Scoring depth. We had a promising burst by Jokinen/Nash/Dwyer for a couple games, but since then 2nd and 3rd line scoring has completely dried up. Skinner has been slow since returning to the lineup after his concussion and JStaal is really spinning his wheels right now. The 3rd line is back to invisible.
3) Special teams, especially the power play. When you are struggling, the 2 things that can even things up are goaltending and special teams. The Canes goaltending (especially Ellis of late) has been solid. He continues to give the team a chance for as long as he can. The power play has gotten to the point where it is actually a negative as it seems to suck energy from the team.
So what to do? If I were coach, I would try a few things:
1) Simplify the power play. There needs to be 1 player whose job it is to park himself within 3 feet of the goalie and fight for space and hopefully lose pucks if they make it in there. If you watch the Canes power play, JStaal and Jokinen are the 2 players who most find themselves roaming the slot area (with guys like EStaal, Semin, Skinner working the flanks). Both have a tendency when we get the puck to want to float out to the open ice just inside 1 of the circles looking for a quick pass and one of those quick shots for a pretty goal. That just isn't working right now. The "free" forward needs to be instructed that priority 1 is creating havoc for the goalie. Then the other players need to be instructed that they need to simplify. If they can count 1 or better yet 2 teammates near the net, they need to find a shooting lane and throw the puck as close to the mess as they can get it. Tuomo Ruutu has always gotten this. JStaal (and to some degree others) need to follow this lead.
Shorter version: The power play gets better when it gets uglier not prettier.
2) The lines. At the beginning of the season, I questioned the match of Skinner/JStaal with Staal being the anchor for more of a defensive line and Skinner leaning offense-first. During phase 1 of this line (before Skinner's concussion), I pretty much admitted to being wrong. Lately I think I am back where I started. JStaal is struggling a bit. He looks best and most comfortable when he is using his size and strength along the walls winning and keeping pucks. But you can't cycle pucks with 1 guy. You need 2, ideally 3. I don't think Skinner and Dwyer are the guys. JStaal needs at least 1 other similar player to work the boards. I would give a shot at sending Skinner elsewhere for a bit and maybe trying something like Ruutu (best available physical warrior option) and maybe Jokinen who could use another change of scenery and is very good at reading when/where to step into holes to score. It's hard to break up Tlusty/EStaal/Semin. They are not the problem really. They scored Tue and are still clipping along at an okay pace. But I am starting to think it is time to take Semin away from EStaal and tell him to try to score goals. He is arguably the 2nd best scoring/shooting option on the team and has started to drift too much into a 100% playmaker role. I think he and the team could benefit if Muller took EStaal away and lit a fire under him that he needs to start thinking shoot/score first.
How about: Tlusty/EStaal/Semin, Jokinen/JStaal/Ruutu, Skinner/Nash/Dwyer with the possibility to interchange Dwyer and Semin to see if you can get #28 to think scoring more often?
Shorter version: JStaal needs a linemate or 2 who can play his style of game well. Semin needs to become a 50/50 split between playmaking and (more) scoring. Best way to accomplish this might be to change up the top line.
3) Learn to win ugly. It is hard to score 4 pretty goals against teams that are decent defensively and can play a grinding style of game. It gets even harder during a condensed schedule where you just don't have your legs every night. But guess what. That pretty much describes the Canes entire schedule for the playoff run. After the upcoming break, the Canes play 18 games in 33 days including 8 in the first 13 days of April. They also get a very heavy dose of games against teams that will drag them into a grinding war of physical battles as much as possible. If the Canes cannot find a way to win games where effort and grit are equally important as skill and skating, April will be a flop, and they will be golfing in early May.
Shorter version: The Canes need to find a way to hold their own in grind it out kind of games. The goal is to play reasonably even for 40 minutes of ugly and find the 1 burst of offense and skating to be the difference.
I also think the time could be now for the Canes to add depth on defense. The team got size and forward depth for free when they claimed Hall of waivers. Even when healthy, I think the team would benefit from 1 more experienced defenseman. With Faulk on the shelf for 2-4 weeks, I think it makes sense to pull the trigger early. I am not suggesting an expensive bid for a top tier guy that costs a bunch. I am thinking more along the lines of Leopold, Smid, etc.
Finally, as bad as the Canes have looked over the past week or so, their current position isn't bad. The strange season with quick batches of too many games has probably 11 of the 15 teams in the East (exceptions being Mon, Pit, Bos and maybe Ott) either struggling right now or struggling very recently. The Canes are only 1 good week away from being back on the other side of the good/bad fence.
Keep the faith Canes fans. Ruutu helps some. Muller gets 4 days to work on things. It starts again next Tue with the Canes needing to play 1 month of decent hockey to make the playoffs. Recent struggles aside, that is a good place to be.
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Go Canes!
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