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Should the Oilers Intentionally Lose? |
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As I said in my last blog, math is not on the side of the Oilers. They only have 10 games remaining, and they're three points back of St. Louis, who has played two less games. The Oilers are four points back of Detroit, who has played the same number. What this means is if the Wings go 6-4 over their last ten, the Oilers would need to go 8-2. Actually, it might be worse than that depending on which team would win the tie break.
The Oilers final ten games? Three against the Ducks, two against the Wild, and one game against each of the Coyotes, Flames, Canucks, Avalanche and Hawks. The Oilers should beat the Flames and Avs, but after that, I don't see how the Oilers can win more than four games at most. 6-4 is a fairly safe prediction, and that's just not good enough to get them into the playoffs.
Which brings me to the concept of the Oilers intentionally losing. If the NHL Draft was held today, the Oilers would be picking 12th. There's a huge difference in prospect quality between the Top 5, 5 to 10, and 12th. This year's draft is thought to be extremely deep, with a clear five or six prospects on the top of the list.
Oilers management is stupid. There, I'm glad someone has finally said it. What makes them dumb is that we knew before the trade deadline that this wasn't going to be a playoff team, and perhaps the Oilers could have received top dollar value on a number of players if they were dealt at the deadline. I spoke about this yesterday - How the Oilers have a group of veterans that just can't cut it. Even if the Oilers got draft picks in return, moving out players who won't be here when the team is good is inconsequential regardless when you do it. With a number of assets, the longer you wait, the less they'll be worth.
Three teams are clearly the bottom of the barrel in the NHL this season: Calgary, Colorado and Florida. No matter how hard the Oilers try to tank, they won't be catching up to any of these teams. It might be difficult for the Oilers to suck enough to catch up to Carolina or Tampa Bay in the draft order. Picking 6th overall is what the team should be shooting for.
Going once again by current standings, and assuming the worst team wins the draft lottery...
1. Colorado Avalanche select defenseman Seth Jones. The Avs have depth at center but need practically everything else, so Jones is the logical choice.
2. Florida Panthers select winger Jonathan Drouin. Can you imagine this guy rushing up the ice on the wing with Huberdeau? Ridiculous.
3. Calgary Flames select center Nathan MacKinnon. The Flames have needed a true #1 center forever, so this is a great selection for them.
From here it gets a little harder to predict. Even though Tampa is technically ranked lower than the Hurricanes, the injury situation is so bad in Carolina, I can't see them finishing lower. So keeping that in mind...
4. Carolina Hurricanes select defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. I'm going on a hunch here. For one thing, TSN's scout guy Craig Button has Ristolainen ranked way too low. It seems like the GM's who believe it this guy REALLY believe in him, if you get my meaning. The situation at forward in Carolina is far prettier than the situation on defense. They need to acquire a Top 4 defenseman or two, so I suggest they'll look to the draft to find one. Hey, every draft has some surprises.
5. Tampa Bay Lighting select center Sasha Barkov. It's crazy this guy is going 5th. If it was last year's draft, he would have been taken #2. Oilers management will be crying in their soup when Tampa makes this selection.
Which brings us to the #6 pick. The Oilers would go with Sean Monahan, who is the solution to a problem. They need a big center who can run people over. If the Oilers pick 12th instead of 6th, it won't be Monahan they'll be taking. Actually, it likely won't be Monahan, Lazar, or maybe even Gauthier. Elias Lindholm is a quality prospect center, but he compares to Sam Gagner. The Oilers have enough smaller forwards. They need a wrecking ball.
So the solution is for the Oilers to throw some games. But how exactly do you do that without making it obvious?
1. Play Devan Dubnyk and Nikolai Khabibulin in equal amounts. The second anyone starts playing too well they sit the next game.
2. Dress Eric Belanger. Give him and the 4th line all the ice time they can eat. The Oilers stink when Belanger plays.
3. Bring back Ben Eager and play him ahead of Mike Brown. The players seem to love Brown, so benching him ahead of the psychologically unstable Eager is a brilliant yet subtle way to throw everyone off their rhythm.
4. Break up the Hall/Nuge/Eberle line. Keep in mind we can't make it obvious that we're trying to lose. So play...ummm...Hall with Belanger and Yakupov, Nuge with Eager and Jones, Petrell with Eberle and Horcoff, and whatever is leftover, meh. Oilers coaches can also continue to shuffle lines during the game, so players are constantly confused.
5. Why should the forwards have all the fun? Bench Justin Schultz in favor of Theo Peckham. Give Whitney and Potter 30 minutes per night. Stick Paajarvi on defense once in a while, just because he played that position when he was in Pee Wee or whatever the equivalency is in Sweden.
6. The Oilers broadcast team could get into the mix. Let Tencer berate the fans after every single game for their pettiness, insecurity, and lack of unconditional support. While he's at it, let him have a go at the Province of Alberta for not wanting to shovel $100mil towards the purchase of a new arena. As much as I believe Rexall is worn out and it's time to build something better, keep in mind my "day" job is at a college that just got nuked by provincial funding cuts. If I need to pick between hockey and a decent post-secondary system, I'm gonna pick the schools. Sorry.
I don't know, people. I really don't know what to tell you. On Trade Deadline day, I had egg on my face for the second year straight. I was told that Smid and his agent wanted too much money and the Oilers were going to deal him. I was told that there was interest in Hemsky. I was told that several players were being made available (Belanger, Eager, Jones, Whitney, etc). None of it happened. And this isn't me just making stuff up, friends. The Oilers had options, and as usual, chose to ignore them.
But there's one big difference this season: Last year, the Oilers knew they would be drafting Yakupov, or Murray, or Galchenyuk. This year, if the Oilers stay on their current trajectory, they'll take a prospect who may or may not have an NHL career, and may or may not be able to help the team out within the next three seasons. If I was Tambellini and the Oilers were picking 12th, I'd deal the pick for an immediate player.
It's kinda like Mr. Miyagi said to Danielson: "Either you karate do "yes" or karate do "no." You karate do "guess so," squish, just like grape."
I'll translate this into hockey language: Oilers management do a really half-assed job, and appear to be conflicted as to when they should acquire some real help to assist the kids in forming a winning team. Year after year, management falls asleep at key points, occasionally making a meaningless deal, instead of dealing with the root of the problem. The Oilers will get good eventually, provided they keep drafting high, because having a roster full of players of that skill level can't be denied forever. But the sad reality is, Oilers management are even more cynical than I am. They believe in their team so little that they refuse to make deals to acquire assets that can help now. The star power of the kids masks the inadequacy of the management in Edmonton, and keeps the fans distracted just enough to prevent management's feet from being held to the fire. When I say I could do a better job managing this team, it's not just my inflated sense of self worth talking. I actually believe it, because I actually believe the majority of Oilers fans who play NHL 2013 on a regular basis could do a better job with this.
Either win or lose, boys. What you're doing now is not acceptable anymore.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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