|
More Hawks-Wings Analysis |
|
|
|
|
|
Follow me @jaeckel
There's no change this morning in my prediction on the outcome of this series.
But some Hawk lineup changes, what I heard from a former player yesterday, some great insight on this blog's message boards and a little digging on my own have given me some more color to add to this picture.
I have often said and including recently that the Wings are the Hawks' mirror image—they play exactly the same style—they're just older, a bit slower and not as deep.
That's too simplistic and a little inaccurate. It's outdated.
Mike Babcock is a helluva hockey coach. And he is getting maximum performance from his roster, a roster that is not what it once was and probably shouldn't be a factor in this series. But it will be.
But just like so many want to incorrectly make this series about Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Kane and Toews—as though there are only 4 players and two goalies on the ice for all 60 minutes—a lot of people forget that the guy across the ice, Joel Quenneville, is a truly great coach, too. And he is prepared for a lot of what Detroit does. In fact, Quenneville and Babcock are quite similar, each always looking for the matchup advantage or some wrinkle to implement that will give him an advantage.
Concurrent with some sort of mysterious. inexplicable lineup changes at Hawk practice (Ben Smith in, Viktor Stalberg and Brandon Saad out), I was also hearing from a former player close to the Hawks that Chicago is preparing for a much more physical series with the Wings than they had with the Wild.
In truth, this could be why the Hawks have blitzed the Wings 7-0-2 over their last nine regular season meetings—the Wings have become less the high-flying, transition team they once were and are really now more of a physical, do what it takes kind of team. A team that passes the puck well and executes its system flawlessly, but also does a lot of the little things necessary to win. And it could be why the Wings matched up so well—maybe better than the Hawks did— against the bigger Ducks.
The statistics bear this out. A good metric of team speed is how many penalties you take—so many penalties are brought about by players not moving their feet to keep up, lazy stick infractions and the like. The Hawks took the fourth fewest penalties in the league during the regular season. The Wings were 19th.
But Babcock has compensated. As one of the many astute posters on my board pointed out yesterday, the Wings seem to now have a little trick of doing a quick clutch or trip of their defensive cover responsibility when possession changes to them, thereby making it harder for the opponent to get back on the back check. In fact, the Wings love to employ this versus the league's premier backchecking team—the Blackhawks.
But these types of plays will lead to penalties at times too. A factor the Ducks took advantage of, going 7 for 25 on the power play, but not enough to take the series. It would be nice for Hawk fans if this played into the Hawks hands, but it doesn't as, until proven otherwise, the Hawks have a pretty anemic power play.
However, the penalty factor could favor the Hawks nonetheless. The Wings power play is OK. The Hawk penalty kill is maybe the best in the league. In fact, the Hawks did not give up a power play goal in 17 chances to the Wild. And there is a well-documented psychological and energy advantage to the team that kills off penalty after penalty.
The insertion of Smith into the lineup, and the likely reappearance of Dave Bolland, likely means the Hawks will want to be tougher to play against. And they will want to hit and confuse a Wing defense that is wafer thin at best. One thing that has not changed about the Wings is their offense so often starts with a quick breakout and defensive awareness. But the Hawks while not typically a punishing team on the forecheck are very good at jumping pucks at the opponents blueline and/or maintaining freakishly long periods of offensive zone possession. And, at least in the Minnesota series, the punishment factor was there.
Even many Hawk fans don't appreciate how big Andrew Shaw's clean hit was that knocked Wild defenseman Clayton Stoner out of the series. On top of that, Shaw and particularly Bryan Bickell pummeled Tom Gilbert over and over again. In fact, many Hawk fans were pleasantly surprised at how physical the Hawks were in the series, outhitting Cal Clutterbuck and the Wild in at least one game—and delivering the bigger hits over the course of the series.
One thing Quenneville fully understands, as proven by what his forwards did to opposing defenses in the 2009 and 2010 playoffs, is that playoff series are wars of attrition.
The Hawks are going to try to wear down the Wing blueliners and put as much traffic as possible in front of Jimmy Howard. Speed, transition, highlight reel goals will happen from there. That, at least, is the plan. But the players need to execute.
if the Hawks go out in game 1 and assume they are in a pretty, transitional track meet, they could get their lunches handed to them by the recently battle-hardened Wings. If they internalize Quenneville's message—and believe me, many in Chicago are shocked by the demotions (for now at least) of Stalberg and Saad—and come out playing hard and smart, then that will be advantage Chicago. At least, the Wings will not surprise the Hawks. And at that point, the Hawks talent and depth advantage would be the difference.
More as I have it,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»