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In breaking down this series, let me set the tone by addressing something to CBC commentator (and former King netminder) Kelly Hrudey: "Kings in a sweep," really?!

And I guess I would say the same thing to those predicting this morning the Bruins will steamroll the Hawks. The one redeeming fact in your favor is that unlike Hrudey, who saw the Hawks play the Kings on three occasions this year, no one has any real frame of reference for an actual Hawks-Bruins matchup.

But I love when the mostly partisan experts—who have not seen the other team play really at all—start making predictions based on superlative or absolute comments like:

"The Bruins destroyed Pittsburgh, so they'll do the same to their Western Conference equivalent: Chicago."

OR, conversely:

"The Hawks just easily dispatched the Western Conference version of the Bruins."

That is way overly simplistic. The truth is, we really won't know exactly how these teams match up likely until some time in the first couple of games. So, let's dispense with the smack talk and more jingoistic predictions, please.

I'm going to look at the statistics and the tendencies and try to isolate an x-factor or two.

First, I think the Bruins have the edge in intangibles. The Hawks have more pressure on them as the home ice advantage team, President's Trophy winner and the fact that the Bruins did just crush everyone's pre-emptive Cup favorite, the Penguins.

But the Hawks do have home ice—and that could be a factor in a close series.

And anyone thinking the Hawks are going to be physically intimidated—something I, myself, would have thought just a few weeks ago—is sorely mistaken.

These are different teams, but also in a couple of critical ways very similar teams.

Before I dive into that, let me also add, if you tease out goaltending from total team defense—Boston has another edge. Tuuka Rask is probably a better goalie than Corey Crawford.

But the same was said of Jimmy Howard and Jonathan Quick. And after both series, the Hawks advanced, and Corey Crawford's stats were better and better.

And here's the thing, I generally don't tease out the goaltending. A team's ability to keep the puck out of the net depends on 6 guys: the goalie, the defensemen and the forwards. And both teams are very very good at it. But defenses don't play opponents' defenses.

Offenses play defenses. And here, I give an edge to the Hawks. I had a debate with another HB blogger (who I have a lot of respect for) prior to the Kings series. He said he put no value in takeaway and giveaway stats, because they're compiled subjectively in each building. While that's true, they are also compiled subjectively in 30 different buildings and thus there is a balancing out—and huge margins in one or the other are therefore telling.

Two facts jump out here. No team in the NHL is better at taking the puck away from the opposition than the Hawks. And the Bruins give up the puck a pretty fair amount. To me, while this starts with the Hawks' defense, it is very much an advantage for their offense, because many of these turnovers will happen in the Bruins' end of the ice.

A factor the Hawks have had to overcome in every series has been their weakness on faceoffs—which could really be exacerbated in this series. The Bruins are outstanding. Still, the Hawks have been demolished at times on draws throughout the playoffs—hasn't really stopped them. If the Bruins were a better team on the power play, or the Hawks were worse on the penalty kill, it might be a factor. Really, these two teams relative strengths and weaknesses on special teams totally cancel eachother out—and render faceoff disparity less important.

The Hawks are at their best flying through the neutral zone and making clever plays at the opponents' blueline. The Bruins will take this away. Count on it. But Chicago has shown in these playoffs they can now easily adjust to a dump and chase and quick forecheck game that will frustrate opponents to no end. The Bruins are big and good on defense, but the Hawks will get some chances here.

Another trick in the Hawks' bag is a lightning fast transition and stretch pass that the Bruins will have to respect in every game. The Penguins are a fast skating club—but they really don't have this in their arsenal. No team does like the Hawks do.

In turn, the Hawks' transition game, or fear of it, will somewhat slow down the Bruins. It has to. If the Bruins don't respect it, if they gamble too much, they will be burned. This is where the Hawks' speed makes them arguably the best team in the league: they can afford to gamble because so many of their players are fast, defensively aware and rotate back. Other teams can't afford to gamble as often when playing anyone—and especially not the Hawks.

The Bruin defense is really, really good. Physical and disciplined—as a unit and as a team. The Hawks will have to be patient. And where they got away with certain star players sort of taking a game off here and there versus Detroit and L.A., they won't against Boston.

Nathan Horton, David Krejci and Milan Lucic have been great in these playoffs, but they haven't faced a defense that is so good at taking away time and space, like the Hawks. The thing the Hawks have to be very aware of is the second line of offense: the Peverleys, Kellys, Krugs and Marchands. The Bruins, in this regard, are a lot like the Hawks, with Shaw, Bickell, Saad, Frolik and Stalberg.

This is going to be a very good series, maybe epic, seven games. Really hard to predict because there are no head-to-head data. And none for any of the teams these teams have played

A good friend of mine—and a knowledgeable hockey fan who follows the Wings—remarked to me the other day how it's like the Hawks are always playing with an extra man—a phenomenon I noticed during the "streak" to start the regular season and at times in the remainder of the regular and in the playoffs.

This is due to the Hawks' superior overall team speed—really the best in the NHL—and defensive awareness and opportunism. And I believe this factor, coupled with the Bruins not being a great puck possession team tilts the ice slightly to Chicago.

In the end, and I know I will be called a homer—so fire away—I think the Hawks' speed and defense over 200 feet of ice—and maybe having home ice for a seventh game—is going to mean a parade in Chicago.

Hawks in 7.



Thanks for reading,


JJ

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