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Top-10 Prospects : Leafs (1-5) |
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Sorry for starting the whole prospect top-10 then disappearing for a bit. In Ontario it is a long weekend, a great one at that, so I was at the Highland Games in Maxville outside of Ottawa. Caber tossing, sheep tossing…you know what, the Scots were really unimaginative when they came up with their games. If it doesn’t move, toss it, if it does…eh, toss that too. Some chick tossed a rock 70 feet…could have sworn it was a dude until they announced Katie had just taken the lead. Regardless, I hope all the Canadians that have the day as a civic holiday had a great time with their families/friends, and the rest enjoyed…well you guys have your own days off too.
I always find it odd; I get my highest viewership during the summer months…when hockey is over. Maybe it’s because you guys are starved for hockey…ok we all know why. The unwritten laugh of the way fandom is. This however is the Leafs top-10 prospects.
The Leafs have had some interesting drafts. They haven’t exactly followed a pattern, even back to the days before the Burke/Nonis team. There is a slight theme though that I have detected from this recent batch in the simplest terms. They covet puck moving defenders. Plus skaters are the highlight for most of the Burke/Nonis picks thus far on defense and as such regardless of whether they are all out offense, defense or a two-way blend, most are primarily puck carriers with a good head for the game. The other trend is picking a lot of “safe” role playing style players that would never make any list of “top prospects” but could be guys you see in the NHL some day in a small role.
Players who have played over 50 games are exempt from this list.
1. Morgan Rielly : 5th Overall, 2012, 19 years old, 6’0 194lbs, Moose Jaw Warriors of the WHL
Rielly is one of the elite defensive prospects in the game. His puck moving skills and offensive abilities are elite, as well as his decision making. Some might question his size, yet he likes to engage in the corners and isn’t afraid of contact. The interesting thing with Rielly is that his upside is so high, yet due to a major injury during his draft year, and having to carry a mediocre junior squad he has much less fanfare than the average top prospect…this might be of some comfort to Leaf fans. He faces an interesting position next season that several top prospects have faced, he’s too good for junior, yet not ready for the NHL…the latter being an assumption/prediction based on his most recent performances. Playing in the AHL would benefit him mightily, but it’s either the NHL or WHL, so seeing as the contracts currently* don’t favour him, I suspect he will be in the leading seat as a part of WJC’s for Canada.
Potential : Top-Pairing Offensive Defenseman
2. Stuart Percy : 25th Overall, 2011, 20 years old, 6’0 190lbs, Mississauga Steelheads of the OHL
Percy is the most unheralded player of the recent draft classes. After a really bad concussion he sort of faded from discussion. The Mississauga Captain came back healthy and more mature showing the kind of game that the Leafs hope he can play at the next level. He’s that odd mix of defensive defenseman while also being a puck mover. A Chicago fan put it the best when discussing Duncan Keith. “He’s a defensive defenseman who can move the puck and pass it; he shouldn’t be on the PP.” Now obviously Keith is on the PP regardless of fanbase opinion, but that is Percy’s game, he is a smart defensive player that skates very well and loves to move the puck. Possession is the key to these defenders that I will be talking about. Percy looked amazing in his brief stint with the Marlies and will be there fulltime next season. It’s odd, he just accumulates points, yet is not often the driving force behind it…can’t really explain it other than his decision making which is excellent.
Potential : Top-4 Defensive Defender
3. Frédérik Gauthier : 21st Overall, 2013, 18 years old, 6’5 216lbs, Rimouski Océanic of the QMJHL
Nonis gambled with his first ever pick as the GM of the Leafs on a player with a low bust rate and some serious room to grow. Being a rookie to the QMJHL his complete implosion for 35 games can be waved off as fatigue or inexperience, though how you explain the torrid start to his year without some hypocrisy bars discussion. Regardless Gauthier is a rare defensive specialist, bringing the size and intelligence one needs to control that side of a game. He played that role for the Canadian U18’s and for Rimouski once they made a few trades. His upside is hard to gage at this stage as he did just come out of AAA, but his floor is very solid. The general consensus is that the Leafs nabbed an NHL player, most likely an elite 3rd line centre…now that is the description that J. Staal, Kesler, Hanzal and a few others had when drafted, some became busts, some what they were expected, and others into amazing players. The thing is, will he develop into a great 2nd line centre and find his offense consistently for that? Will he become an elite shutdown centre? Or will he go the way of a few guys touted for their defense that either fade or diminish? A lot of upside and questions about Gauthier, but a ballsy pick for a 6’5 behemoth in a new environment who is raw as hell but knows the defensive game like a Selke winner.
Potential : 2nd Line Defensive Centre/3rd Line Defensive Centre
4. Matt Finn : 35th Overall, 2012, 19 years old, 6’0 196lbs, Guelph Storm of the OHL
Finn fell by most scouts views from in the 20 range to 35th, not a major leap, but something to be mentioned. Finn represents the kind of continuous talk I don’t want to be caught in because I’ve said it with Rielly and Percy, though there are various levels of skill/upside. Finn is a smart two-way defender who moves the puck well and skates well (you’ll hear that a lot), he brings some leadership, yet also something the other two kind of lack. Rielly and Percy don’t really shoot the puck a lot, Finn loves to go for the big shot. Defensively he’s solid; offensively he’s improving each year. He plays major minutes, sometimes too much, but that won’t be as big an issue at the next level. He will finish his OHL career next season with Guelph for now as their Captain for the second straight year and will likely find himself in the mix for the Canadian World Junior Squad.
Potential : Top-4 Two-Way Defenseman
5. Joe Colborne : 16th Overall, 2008, 23 years old, 6’5 221lbs, Toronto Marlies of the AHL
Colborne is reaching the limits of expectations at this point…through no fault of his own…well maybe a little. The problem with being such a high draft pick is that you have expectations, even if you are picked as a long term hope out of a minor league like the AJHL. A wrist injury is often blamed for the end of his major hot streak in the AHL and his continued slow start in the beginning of the year…and this is fair. Colborne however has always been at extremes, hot and cold. It’s hard to say what is progress especially after the injury, as he was the hottest player in the AHL prior to it, but before it he was “meh” then he was “meh” “recovering” then very hot to end the year. It could be progress or it could be a usual hot streak with him. Regardless the issue with Colborne is if he can make it as a top-6 centre which is what he is built for, or if he can develop his game into a 3rd line centre which is where his career with Toronto seems to be going towards barring a great camp. Next year he will likely be starting yet again with the Marlies.
Potential : 2nd Line Centre or…at this moment bust
Thanks for reading. Next one up soon.
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