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It's become a foregone conclusion—it is nearly or completely impossible to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions.
But that's the funny thing about "conventional wisdom." It always seems to fall through at some point.
Now, am I predicting the Chicago Blackhawks will repeat as Stanley Cup champs in 2014? No, I am not. What I am offering here is an assessment and dissection of their chances to do so. And I am certain there are some who will say that even discussing it is homerism—because the "laws of NHL physics" rule it out. Well, I hope you have a nice day reading some other blog somewhere on your flat earth.
The main reason this is a valid discussion is that the Hawks were clearly the best team in the league last year, and they have not had the roster turnover this summer —not even close—that they did after their last Cup win in 2010.
But they did have some turnover. And we're going to talk about that.
The main reason the Hawks would not repeat is time, energy and logistics. Winning a Stanley Cup is a hard, long slog, followed by a short summer. That is not debatable. A couple of mitigating factors for the Hawks there, though, are they only played a 48 game regular season last year, and they do have a very young and deep team.
The truth is, it is almost impossible to imagine that the Hawks won't be one of the league's best teams next year. They're loaded at forward. And what made them so good in 2012-13 was really their defense, both as a team and on their blueline. And that fairly stacked blueline returns intact for 2013-14, as does the #1 netminder, Corey Crawford, coming off an outstanding playoffs for the most part.
To my eye, the biggest issue for the Hawks going into this season is a loss of quality forward depth: Michal Frolik, Viktor Stalberg and Dave Bolland.
In truth, those were really the Hawks' most expendable players. But each had a role on the team. Not many players in the league, much less at the Hawks' AHL affiliate in Rockford, IL, combine size, speed and energy the way Frolik and Stalberg do. Bolland is/was Bolland.
That loss of depth, combined with the aforementioned fatigue/hangover factor, could be enough to bring the Hawks all the way back to the pack.
Or not.
This past winter, some got a little, ummm, ahead of themselves and started calling Brandon Saad the eventual replacement for Marian Hossa. Not only was that a little unfair to both players, it also really wasn't accurate. Hossa is a hall of famer. And it doesn't appear he's going anywhere before the summer of 2014, if even then.
And what Saad is, really, is an upgraded Viktor Stalberg. Saad brings a nice combination of speed and size. But he also plays—or has the potential to play— the game better and more consistently over 200 feet of ice than Stalberg does. And Saad may well end up right where Stalberg was on the Hawks' third line—and be very effective there, with more special team responsibility, especially on the penalty kill, where he could mitigate somewhat the loss of Frolik.
Bolland was largely a forgotten man in the latter part of last season. He certainly came on as the playoffs went on, which wasn't unusual for him. But another Hawk center quietly had a very strong playoff, and that was now third-year player Marcus Kruger—a player similar in style to Bolland who the coaching staff relied on more and more as the consistent alternative to Bolland in more situations..
Together, Kruger and Frolik gave the Hawks the luxury of fourth line that was really a second shutdown line. And while the Hawks likely won't be quite that deep again, Kruger is candidate 1A to replace Bolland either at 2nd or 3rd line C. Kruger is an established NHL player and he has not reached his full potential either. His role, like Saad's, should and likely will be expanded. And that will fill some of the holes left by the departures. How much remains to be seen, and likely not all.
Because there are still minutes to fill and that is going to have to come from some combination of AHL players Brandon Pirri (who led the AHL in scoring last year), Jeremy Morin, Jimmy Hayes, Ben Smith, or possibly Swedish center Joakim Nordstrom and/or 2011 first round picks Philip Danault or Mark McNeill. Veteran grinders Brandon Bollig and Brad Winchester are going to be in that mix as well.
I have a hard time seeing some combination of the above players simply replacing or exceeding what Frolik, Stalberg and Bolland brought to the Hawks. But I can see enough contribution from them—and increased contributions from Saad and Kruger—to make the effect of the offseason turnover marginal at most.
And then it really does come down to fatigue, hangover,focus.And on that note, I will say that another thing that made the Hawks a great team in 2012-13 is their leadership: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Sharp, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Hossa. These guys know how to win in the NHL, and having been through the letdown following the 2010 Cup, how to avoid repeating that.
There are 29 other teams who feel it's their turn this year, and a few legitimately have a shot. And the Hawks will have to respect and contend with them. But for players like Toews and Keith (who returned to his Norris winning from last season) and the rest, they sense that history is at hand. Make no mistake. They want their names associated with the next true Dynasty in hockey.
Can they do it? The puck drops in about seven weeks.
All for now,
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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