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If you were forced to describe the game of hockey to someone who had never seen it, what phrases would be used to say what “it’s all about”? Many come to mind.
Speed because of the pace of play compared to the size of the playing area.
Tradition for all of the unwritten rules and proverbial “code” that remains in place though the evolution of the sport.
Toughness because large physical specimens fly around on a think sheet of ice with sharpened metal strapped to their feet slamming in to each other with reckless abandon for months on end (and like it).
Oxymoronic for a peculiar combination of beautiful execution made possible by world class skill and ugly melees in dirty areas.
Should the question be posed to me, the answer is easy.
The game is about many things, but one aspect reigns supreme over all others like the one team who stands over 29 fallen combatants in mid June.
Scoring goals.
The object of the game is to put the puck in the opposing team’s goal more times than they can put it in yours within the time constraints after all.
It may be the only aspect the St. Louis Blues haven’t figured out completely.
Throughout Ken Hitchcock’s time as head coach the Blues have become known as one of the stingiest teams in the NHL. An extensive dedication to puck management they has kept shots against their goal and ones that get through to a minimum. In 2011-12 they posted a league low GAA mark of 1.89 and 7th lowest in the lockout shortened 2012-13 campaign at 2.38. In those two seasons they finished no lower than 2nd overall in fewest shots against per game (26.7 and 24.2 respectively).
Their potency in these areas has led to a level of success the franchise hasn’t enjoyed in nearly a decade. Central Division championships and playoff appearances. Not to mention heightened expectations to do more than just make it to the second season, but be crowned its winner.
Having only half the equation figured out has the team failing to meet expectations on the ice which puts them at financial risk off the ice in town covered in red 365 days a year that only occasionally leaks blue.
Their last two post season runs have ended in bitter disappointment at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings. The culprit is the same that has held them back since the golden era of Brett Hull through the days Keith Tkachuk and Pavol Demitra were major offensive forces. A lack of goal scoring. Not in just bulk volume, but in timely nature.
Offensive output in Hithcock’s tenure has been tepid at best. Last season they crawled up to 17th overall averaging 2.58 goals per game. The year prior they finished 21st with a 2.51 goals for per game pace. The power play has been pretty pedestrian as well. In 11-12 they converted just 45 times out of 269 attempts (16.7%). In 12-13 a hot start fizzled in to a 29-for-149 mark that was good enough for 12th (19.5%).
Bring up the lack of scoring around St. Louis and you’ll hear widely variable points of view. From admissions that they’re lacking the big punch or major threat that they had with Hull or Demitra to regurgitation of the old adage that defense wins championships.
The truth, or more accurately the answer that leads to a parade down Market St., sits somewhere in the middle. At least if you work forward with the assumption that the defensive (which really translates in to puck posses these days) concerns are minimal s that’s the sole area that’s been figured out.
Simply put, the Blues need to score more to get over the hump. Hitchcock knows this and made statements during the offseason that would lead some to believe that changes will be made to increase prime scoring opportunities. He elaborated further on his offensive minded thoughts this week.
"What we need to do is finish, and finishing has a lot of difficult tasks in it. It means you don't go by the goalie, it means you stop in uncomfortable spaces, it means you're going to get whacked in areas ...
"We need to hold our ground a little bit longer and at times outwork the goaltender Rather than slap it back at his pads and hope it goes through, we need to pay the price to ...have confidence, we can pull it back off the pads and put it under the bar. All those things are things we've been working on since day one."
Save the “duh” commentary for a moment. There are related numbers to show which interesting implications to infer.
Finishing, putting the puck behind the goal once the work has been done to create an opportunity, has been in short supply. Going back to the first series against LA, the Blues missed 101 shots in six games. It turns out to be a pretty bad shooting percentage. That number alone doesn’t tell the story about why the Blues need to get better.
Looking back to the 2007-08 season there are a couple trends in teams that go deep in the playoffs. Those that make it at least to the Conference Finals, there have been 24, have pretty strong offensive numbers. Here are the regular season even strength medians for those teams:
Goals For per 60 Min (GF/60): 2.39
Fenwick for per 60 Min (FF/60): 42.8
Corsi for per 60 Min (CF/60): 56.85
Shooting Percentage (Sh%): 8.05
Where are the Blues in comparison under Hitchcock? At 2.12, 41.00, 54.20, 7.28 respectively.
In general they direct the puck and finish better than most teams, but not on the same level as those who have a shot at raising the Cup. The differences are fairly stark.
Difference Between Blues & Other Teamss
Team GF/60 FF60 CF60 Sh%
Conf Loser -0.22 -1.25 -1.10 -0.60
Conf Winner -0.39 -2.35 -3.30 -0.87
Cup Loser -0.26 -1.95 -3.30 -0.77
Cup Winner -0.58 -2.70 -3.40 -1.03
*Conf = Conference Series
Where can they get the largest band for the buck? Shooting percentage.
Since Corsi and Fenwick are used to gauge possession and we’re working with the assumption that they’ve got that figured out well enough, then attention should turn to conversion rate. Push that up and the GF/60 will rise.
The task may be more attainable than one would think. There is organization recognition of the problem. Focus should lead to improvement. Personnel changes will play a big part.
During 2011-12 the Blues scored 134 goals on 1924 shots for 6.96 Sh% at even strength (ES). To increase to Stanley Cup winners level they'd need to score 160 goals, in the same number of shots, for an 8.32 Sh%. That's 27% increase in efficiency or 26 conversions.
In 2012-13 Blues scored 82 goals on 1042 shots for a 7.87 Sh% at ES. To get where they need to be 87 goals, on the same number of shots, for an 8.34 Sh% is required. That's a small jump of 6% efficiency or five more conversions.
Heading in to the 2013-14 season the Blues have lost 17 ES goals from their roster (8-David Perron, 2-Chris Porter, 6-Andy McDonald, 1-Scott Nichol). In terms of shots Perron had 61, Porter had 45, McDonald had 64, and Nichol had 12 for a total of 182 ES shots.
Through free agency and trades they gained 25 (10-Brenden Morrow, 6-Magnus Paajarvi, 5- Derek Roy, 4-Maxim Lapierre). Shots were Morrow with 40, Roy had 58, Lapierre had 46, and Paajarvi had 66 for a total of 210 ES shots
In total a net goal differential of +8 and net shot differential of +28. This puts the Blues at roughly where they need to be. A 29% increase in efficiency assuming no drop off in production. Which is a large assumption to take without a chaser considering Morrow is another year old and not getting quality minutes in a goal scoring talent laden group like Pittsburgh. That’s where the presumed growth of Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz, and (hopefully) a return to 30 goal production from David Backes offset Morrow’s eventual decrease in effectiveness and efficiency. Besides the growth desired of Paajarvi takes place and Roy sparks Chris Stewart as intended, that is.
The problem, though seemingly obvious, has been qualified. An effective and appropriate response, though not as obvious, is seemingly quantified.
The Blues have put themselves in the right place at the right time. Opportunity is knocking. It will be a fun season to watch and see if they’ve figured out the other half of the most critical part of the game and finish like a champion.
A couple Quick Hits…
The home opener has been pushed back to 7:30pm CT on Thursday to accommodate those taking in the St. Louis Cardinals playoff game against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Again, town is more red than blue, but it makes sense to work together to benefit fans of both.
In Prospect Action… Defenseman Tommy Vannelli scored his first WHL goal last night with Medicine Hat. The Tigers beat Moose Jaw 4-2 Tuesday night. Forward Zach Pochiro netted a goal in the Prince George Cougars’ 2-0 win over the visiting Victoria Royals.
Thanks for reading.
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