Saturday’s game between the Carolina Hurricanes and the New York Islanders is a matchup between the #2 and #3 teams in the Metro Division. Some might say that it is too early to begin to think of games in terms of the standings. I would say that if a team like the Canes that has been on the outside looking in on the playoffs 4 years running does have some of this mentality in October, it might never get the chance. While the teams’ records are similar the paths have been a bit different. The Canes have run a gauntlet of top teams whose combined record is 34-23-3 whereas the Isles have had a bit softer scheduler seeing teams with a combined record of only 15-27-9.
On a good night, the Isles play very much the style of 1 of those hungry, undermanned teams that just outwork you to win despite a lack of scoring talent. But here’s the thing – in no way is this team light on scoring talent. John Tavares has officially ascended to NHL superstar and elite scorer status. And the team is very deep at forward. On paper entering the season, the Isles were light on the blue line minus Mark Streit with an unheralded top pairing that features some talented young players and a 2nd pairing led by a veteran puck mover and accompanied by an older inexperienced player. Sounds kind of like the Canes, right?
I think the Isles present 3 challenges to the Canes:
1) Size and sandpaper. It will be interesting to see how they match up, but the Isles have a pretty good collection of players with decent size, hitting and a bit of nastiness in their lineup not in the form of 5-minute per game enforcers but rather guys you see on the ice for regular shifts. Key for the Canes is to match intensity and physicality within the game, be willing to take a hit to make a play and stay focused. Especially in the case of Skinner/Nash/Dvorak, the key is to skate and move the puck such that it becomes more about covering ice than mucking around in the corners for 40 seconds each shift.
2) The Tavares line vs. Canes 2nd pairing. Brett Bellemore has been solid playing against only okay 2nd lines. He has struggled at times when tasked with playing most of a game against elite scoring lines. Hainsey/Bellemore was part of the struggle against Pittsburgh, and the Blackhawks game was arguably Bellemore’s worst. Best guess is that New York Islanders coach Jack Capuano will look to get Tavares’ line out against Hainsey/Bellemore (if this pairing holds or otherwise whatever replaces it as the 2nd pairing).
SATURDAY AFTERNOON EDIT: Chip Alexander from the News & Observer reports that Mike Komisarek will start on D and take Brett Bellemore's spot. Though the names have changed, I think the situation is exactly the same with Capuano looking to get Tavares and company on the ice against this 2nd pairing.
3) Intensity level. As noted above, especially at home the Isles bring a jump and intensity level that can be overwhelming if you start out slow or hit lulls. Despite decent results of late, the Canes continue to struggle to put together a solid 60-minute game. If the Canes start sluggish against the Isles, the Isles have enough fire power to half-bury you early and then stand on you to make sure you do not come to life later.
From the Canes side of it, I am looking for a few keys:
1) Cam’s continuation. The Toronto win marks the 1st time Ward has been able to string together 2 solid outings. With Khudobin still a ways from returning, now would be a great time for Ward to find a hot streak and help the team push above .500 while most of the division is still struggling to get their feet under them.
2) 60 minutes. Stealing games in the 3rd period is exciting, but it is not a go-to recipe for full season success. It would be great to see the Canes right the ship in terms of finding intensity out of the gate especially since the Isles have the potential to score in bunches and possibly put a game out of reach if you do not.
3) The matchups. I think it could be interesting to see what Muller does with defense and forward combinations to counteract whatever Capuano might want. Might Muller try to match Hainsey/Bellemore with JStaal’s line such that if Capuano wants Tavares’ line against the 2nd pairing you at least get to put your top defensive center and arguably best checking line in front of them at the same time? How many minutes can Muller get out of Sekera/Faulk with a day off between games and 4 days off following Saturday’s game. If this game is close, I would not be surprised to see Faulk push 27-28 minutes with Sekera not far behind.
With the break coming and some ability to pair defense and forwards, I think Muller’s ability to get reasonably desirable matchups on the road and use the full tank for a few key players could be key to slowing the Isles enough to drag them into the 2-2 late kind of game with which the Canes are becoming increasingly comfortable.
With the struggles that most of the division is having right now, it is important for the Canes to keep the foot on the pedal and keep building distance. A win Saturday would also keep 2nd place in the division and push the Isles just a little closer to the heap of struggling teams below them.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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