Thursday night was a frustrating one for the Edmonton Oilers, who dropped a 4-2 loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning. However, my frustration was just starting to build as the final buzzer sounded. In the aftermath of the loss – the team’s 13th in 17 games – it seemed that broadcasters, players, reporters, coaches, columnists, bloggers and fans all agreed on one thing: The Oilers deserved to win the game. If there was any doubt about it, even Tampa Bay forward Steven Stamkos came out afterward and said that his team didn’t deserve the win. So, it seems everyone was in agreement. Everyone except me.
Hockey is the only sport I can think where you often see a team’s performance analyzed and judged without factoring in its most important player – the goaltender. In football, you never hear anyone say that a team deserved to win the game, but lost because of the atrocious play of its quarterback. In baseball, it’s never surmised that a team deserved to win the game, but lost because of a disastrous performance by the starting pitcher. Sure a football team’s defense or a baseball team’s offensive production can be applauded, but never at the absolute exclusion of the team’s most vital position.
Despite outshooting the Lightning 40-26, and outchancing them by a wide margin, the Oilers didn’t deserve to win on Thursday night. Why? Because once again Devan Dubnyk was unable to match the performance of his counterpart at the other end of the rink. Until he can do that, or the team acquires someone who can, I refuse to believe that the Oilers deserve anything other than their current spot in the basement of the Western Conference. I think we would all agree that Dubnyk is a significant part of the team, right? Absolutely. I gave him the benefit of the doubt prior to the season, but can’t do it any longer.
Look at how Dubnyk has performed against the opposing goaltender in each of his 10 starts this season.
10/1 vs. Winnipeg
Dubnyk: 5 goals, 28 shots, .821 save percentage
Pavelec: 4 goals, 38 shots, .895 save percentage (+.074 difference)
10/5 at Vancouver
Dubnyk: 5 goals, 31 shots, .839 save percentage
Luongo: 2 goals, 23 shots, .913 save percentage (+.074 difference)
10/10 vs. Montreal
Dubnyk: 3 goals, 26 shots, .885 save percentage
Budaj: 1 goal, 28 shots, .964 save percentage (+.079 difference)
10/12 at Toronto
Dubnyk: 6 goals, 26 shots, .769 save percentage
Bernier: 5 goals, 31 shots, .839 save percentage (+.070 difference)
10/17 at New York Islanders
Dubnyk: 3 goals, 40 shots, .925 save percentage
Nabokov: 2 goals, 29 shots, .931 save percentage (+.006 difference)
10/19 at Ottawa
Dubnyk: 1 goal, 36 shots, .972 save percentage
Lehner: 2 goals, 20 shots, .900 save percentage (-.072 difference)
10/22 at Montreal
Dubnyk: 3 goals, 32 shots, .906 save percentage
Price: 4 goals, 32 shots, .875 save percentage (-.031 difference)
10/24 vs. Washington
Dubnyk: 4 goals, 26 shots, .846 save percentage
Holtby: 1 goal, 31 shots, .968 save percentage (+.122 difference)
11/5 at Florida
Dubnyk: 3 goals, 23 shots, .870 save percentage
Markstrom: 4 goals, 27 shots, .852 save percentage (-.018 difference)
11/7 at Tampa Bay
Dubnyk: 3 goals, 25 shots, .880 save percentage
Bishop: 2 goals, 40 shots, .950 save percentage (+.070 difference)
Dubnyk has been outplayed by the opposing netminder in seven of the 10 games that he’s started this season. When he’s outplayed, Dubnyk’s opposition averages a save percentage that’s .070 percentage points higher than his own. That’s a staggering figure. In the three games when he’s outplayed the other team’s starting goaltender, he’s averaging a save percentage .040 percentage points higher. It’s also worth noting that in two of those games – Ottawa (Lehner) and Florida (Markstrom) – he was facing the opponent’s backup goaltender. When it comes to Dubnyk, hold both your applause and your nose.
But the question on everyone’s mind is this: We know Dubnyk stinks, but how does the Oilers’ record coincide with his performance? In games when he has been the better goaltender, Edmonton has a record of 3-0. In games when he has been outplayed, the Oilers have a record of 0-6-1. Simply put, the guy in the crease 190 feet away is giving his team a chance to win on a much more consistent basis than Dubnyk is, which explains why he needs to be replaced. But which goaltender could the Oilers acquire in an attempt to salvage their mangled season? In my mind, there are only two possible trading partners, St. Louis and Toronto.
Jaroslav Halak/Brian Elliott
Both Halak and Elliott are unrestricted free agents in the offseason, and you have to figure the Blues would like to get some kind of return for one as they make a long-term commitment to the other. Halak is bouncing back from a sub-par season, but has legitimate Vezina potential and enjoys a heavy workload. Elliott is more of a wild card, but led the league in save percentage two seasons ago.
While there might be some question marks about how either 28-year-old goaltender would perform outside the comfort zone of the St. Louis system, you have to consider each one an upgrade over Dubnyk. Interesting fact that isn’t necessarily relevant to anything: Both Curtis Joseph and Tommy Salo were 28 when they came to the Oilers. Plus, considering the substantial amount of egg on his face, Blues general manager Doug Armstrong might simply give the Oilers either Halak or Elliott in exchange for a reversal of the Perron-Paajarvi trade.
Jonathan Bernier/James Reimer
It’s hard to imagine the Leafs moving Bernier after acquiring him from Los Angeles in the offseason. Reimer is a restricted free agent in the offseason, and is a much better goaltender than his current timeshare situation with Bernier would suggest. Plus, there’s no doubt that Reimer would prefer to be in a starting role – putting himself in position for a huge offseason payday – rather than the 1A, 1B scenario in Toronto at the moment.
However, a deal for either goaltender would all depend on Toronto’s asking price, which has to be steeper than the slope of Dave Nonis’s forehead, since each player continues to excel and the NHL starting goaltender market has much more demand than supply. If I’m Craig MacTavish, I put the Oilers’ 2014 first-round draft pick in play. It’s risky, but sends the message that Edmonton is serious about salvaging its season. Plus, it could turn out to be a small price to pay in exchange for a franchise goaltender that can bring stability to the organization.
Of course, the third option would be to just let Dubnyk play out the remaining 65 games, hope that he isn’t a complete train wreck, and then push for an unrestricted free agent in the offseason. The first problem with this plan is that you have to cross your fingers that Ryan Miller, Henrik Lundqvist, or perhaps Jonas Hiller will actually hit the free agent market. And, of course, the second problem is convincing any of those players to come to Edmonton without backing up at least four Brinks trucks to their front door.
Dubnyk’s play has backed the Oilers into a sticky situation, but they deserve whatever fate that befalls them for failing to adequately address the goaltending situation in the offseason. Actually, make that any of the five offseasons since Dwayne Roloson left town. People far and wide might claim that the Oilers deserved a better fate than they received on Thursday night, or more praise than their record suggests, but until they can fix their problem between the pipes I refuse to believe it.
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