GAME PREVIEW (5:15 AM EST)
Submerged in an offensive abyss that has seen them score a miniscule 1.47 goals per game, something is bound to give when the Philadelphia Flyers (4-10-1) take on the NHL's worst defensive team, the Edmonton Oilers (4-11-2) at the Wells Fargo Center on Saturday afternoon. The Flyers have scored just 22 goals in 15 games, including just two in their last four matches. Oilers have yielded 66 goals in 17 games, for a 3.88 team goals against average.
Game time is 1 p.m. eastern. The match will be televised locally on CSN Philly and nationally on NHL Network.
FLYERS OUTLOOK
Today's game concludes the home-heavy early portion of the Flyers schedule. After today, the Flyers play 20 of their next 27 games on the road. Next week, the Flyers face a difficult three-in-four gamut of games in Ottawa (Tuesday), Pittsburgh (Wednesday) and Winnipeg (Friday) before returning home.
Getting away from home might not be the worst thing for this team. The Flyers have fared especially poorly at the Wells Fargo Center this season, posting a 2-7-0 record. In the process, they have been outscored by a 27-11 margin.
In a typical Flyers game this season, the club will get off to solid start early in the game but then wilt when faced with adversity. Rather than getting better as games progress, the Flyers have generally gotten worse. While the Flyers have actually outscored opponents by an 11-9 margin in first periods, they have been outscored 32-11 over the final 40 minutes.
Third periods have been especially unkind to Philly. Buoyed by strong goaltending and some early leads in games, the team has entered 14 of 15 third periods to date leading, tied or trailing by one goal. No one has stepped up offensively with games on the line, as attested to by the club getting outscored 18-6 in the final stanza.
The goaltending of Steve Mason has been the team's brightest spot so far. He has consistently given the Flyers a chance to win games, even when they have been outskated and outworked by opponents. The team defense in front of goaltenders Mason and Ray Emery has been improved under Craig Berube, but is still by no means airtight. The biggest improvement has been in cutting down the number of odd-man rushes allowed.
Philadelphia's offensive drought is not simply a matter of players "squeezing the stick" or being reluctant to take open shots. It runs deeper than that. The team has not generated enough quality chances, especially of late, because it does not do enough of the things that lead to scoring opportunities:
Breakouts are often laborious. The Flyers are plagued by errant passing, especially from defensemen to forwards, and by forwards who become stationary rather than moving their feet. The team fails to clear its own zone too often under even moderate forechecking pressure and takes too many needless icings. Additionally, too many would-be rushes go offside or, worse, end up as turnovers between the bluelines and potential counterattacking chances for opponents.
The board work is often poor. In an average game, the Flyers lose the majority of the battles along the walls. This has been especially true in the offensive zone, where the Flyers' forechecking work has frequently been subpar. When you can't carry the puck into the offensive zone and you can't get the disc in deep and then retrieve it by winning the battles in the trenches, there won't be enough puck possession time to generate scoring chances.
Shot attempts do not get through traffic. For all the talk about the number of Flyers shots from good shooting range that miss the net, an equal concern from my standpoint is the team's inability to get the puck to the net in the first place rather than having them blocked down by opposing teams.
No one consistently and effectively crashes the net. The Flyers play too much of a perimeter game much of the time. They talk the talk about scoring "greasy" goals off deflections, rebounds and loose puck scrambles in close but even when they manage to get the pucks to the vicinity of the net, the Flyers attackers too often get boxed out or their stick gets neutralized.
If the Flyers start to correct some of these areas, the scoring chances -- and, eventually, some goals -- will come. If they don't, they'll continue to struggles to pot even two goals in any given game.
OILERS OUTLOOK
The Oilers are coming off a 4-2 loss against Tampa Bay, and have won just three of their last 10 games. Edmonton is a club that has really struggled on its side of the red line, getting outscored by a 66-42 margin this season.
Edmonton's defensive woes run as deep as the Flyers' inability to score. The coverages have been suspect. Too many pucks get turned over in dangerous areas. The goaltending has frequently been atrocious (yesterday, the team agreed to a contract with former Flyers goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, but he is not yet ready to play in game action). Moreover, Oilers mistakes tend to snowball.
Dallas Eakins' young team has had as much trouble handling adversity as the Flyers have. The Oilers enter today with a 1-5-2 record even when scoring the first goal of a game. Edmonton has been outscored in every period by opponents; 13-21 in first periods, 14-22 in second periods, and 13-21 in thirds.
In terms of special teams, Edmonton ranks in the bottom one-third the NHL in both power play efficiency (14.8 percent, 21st in the league) and penalty killing (77.6 percent, 25th). The Flyers' power play has been even worse at 6-for-60 (10 percent, 29th) but the penalty kill, with the exception of a one-game hiccup in Detroit, has been strong (85.9 percent, 7th).
While Philly is the NHL's most penalized team, the Oilers are in the middle of the pack, taking the 16th most penalties.
PROJECTED LINE COMBINATIONS (Subject to change)
FLYERS
10 Brayden Schenn - 28 Claude Giroux - 24 Matt Read
19 Scott Hartnell - 40 Vincent Lecavalier - 17 Wayne Simmonds
12 Michael Raffl - 14 Sean Couturier - 93 Jakub Voracek
37 Jay Rosehill - 18 Adam Hall - 36 Zac Rinaldo
44 Kimmo Timonen - 5 Braydon Coburn
8 Nicklas Grossmann - 32 Mark Streit
26 Erik Gustafsson - 22 Luke Schenn
35 Steve Mason
[29 Ray Emery]
Potential Scratches: Kris Newbury (healthy), Andrej Meszaros (healthy), Hal Gill (healthy), Steve Downie (concussion), Chris Pronger (LTIR, post-concussion syndrome).
OILERS (dependent on injury returns)
57 David Perron - 93 Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - 14 Jordan Eberle
83 Ales Hemsky - 4 Taylor Hall - 89 Sam Gagner
6-Jesse Joensuu - 27 Boyd Gordon - 26 Mark Arcobello
20 Luke Gadzic - 94 Ryan Smyth, 64 Nail Yakupov
21 Andrew Ference - 2 Jeff Petry
77 Anton Belov - 36 Philip Larsen
81 Taylor Fedun - 15 Nick Schultz
40 Devan Dubnyk
[1 Jason LaBaberba]
Potential Scratches: David Perron (neck, may be activated from IR), Justin Schultz (IR, strained groin/ribcage), Jesse Joensuu (back, may be activated from IR), Nail Yakupov or Luke Gazdic or Ryan Jones or Will Acton (all healthy, one or more could be scratched depending on availability of injured players), Steve MacIntyre (IR, knee), Tyler Pitlick (IR, knee), Richard Bachman (IR, groin), Ilya Bryzgalov (not yet with team).
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On the International Ice Hockey Federation's official Web site, I take an in-depth look at one of the many innovations that the late Fred Shero brought to the NHL: studying and adapting European hockey tactics to fit the small-rink game. For more on Shero's contributions in the realm of studying and adapting international hockey to the NHL,
click here.
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