Only about a week ago, I would have been heading to PNC Arena with some kind of blinders that I could put over my eyes with the expectation that I would need them to block out most of what I was about to see. But now a week later, I feel much better about this game and think it is much better timed. The opponent is still a tough challenge. The Colorado Avalanche are pulling a 2005-06 Carolina Hurricanes. Coming out of a lockout (not directly but still) were picked to finish near the bottom of the league, the Avs are instead taking the NHL by storm. With 3 games in hand versus Anaheim who is only 3 points ahead of them, you can easily argue that they are the best team in NHL right now. They are led by a fiery coach. And their success is built largely on the fact that they are just taking it to teams in terms of skating, playing aggressive and just making the game go at a speed that they can handle but their opponents cannot. It is eerily similar to what we saw here in Raleigh 8 years ago.
But back to the game at hand. With the Canes having at least temporarily righted the ship with 2 wins and an OTL point in 3 games last week, the team is playing better and feeling confident. Sure the Canes are still without Jeff Skinner who was leading team in scoring when he hit the injury shelf and also still minus both of their NHL goalies. But with Justin Peters settling in and playing solid hockey in net, the skaters being very good in terms of consistent compete level and defensive acumen and a few wins to build confidence, the injuries are suddenly a manageable inconvenience. And with a couple wins last week, I think the team is also at a point where even a loss tonight will not be catastrophic. So given that you have to play these teams at some point, I think the timing is actually decent for the Canes to lace 'em up against the best, go after them and see if they can pull some points out of the final 2 games of this home stand.
This is not the kind of game where you can come in timid or meek and try to some how hold the Avs down, grind one out, etc. To win games like these, you need to come in with a little bit of swagger, not too much respect and an extra dose of confidence and determination. This time last week I think that would have been nearly impossible to muster, but I think the Canes psyche is in a place where it can do exactly that.
To win tonight, I think the Canes need to do 3 things:
1) Stay on the current track. The Canes have played pretty well the past 3 games. The offense is still more lost than found, but the foundation of the past 3 games has been the team's most consistent 60-minute efforts of the season (and arguably since before the lockout) and defense. The key for the Canes is to hold tight to this foundation and not instead try to do too much. Now 17 games deep into the season it is clear that the stubbornly absent scoring is going to arrive when it feels like it and not a bit sooner. Abandoning the stuff that is working to pull the offense is a recipe for bad hockey across the board and more significantly for Tuesday a path to giving Colorado too much free offense which will certainly end badly.
=> The Canes did a lot of things right last week. Despite the level of competition, the Canes need to remain true to the foundation of effort level and sound defensive play and not alter these seeking cheap offense.
2) Watch where, when and how you give the puck up. As noted above, the speed at which the Avs can transition from defense to offense and create quality scoring chances in a hurry is reminiscent of the 2005-06 Canes. They skate hard and well and are confident and efficient at finishing right now. If you turn the puck over in places where it happens suddenly and there is not enough defense behind it, the Avs will quickly turn these opportunities into odd man rushes and ultimately goals. The Canes have been very good at making plays to get the puck behind opposing defensemen even if it is not sexy and exciting and forcing opponents to move the puck the length of the rink against a defense that is ready to defend. If the Avs pressure starts to force turnovers at the blue lines and even in the neutral zone, the Canes defenders will have the unenviable task of playing on their heels or worse flat-footed while skilled speed flies at them through the neutral zone unimpeded. That is a recipe for a real rough night defensively. And even worse, if you give Colorado a couple goals like this early, then they even more get rely on their good defense and goaltending and prey on the mistakes that happen when their opponent is forced to gamble a bit to create offense.
=>Canes cannot cough the puck up at the blue lines where it leads very quickly to transition offense and in general needs to make sure it moves the puck or at least gives it away in the right places (i.e. behind the Avs net).
3) Be good if not great. You don't beat a team like the Avs without playing a very good hockey game. It starts in goal with Justin Peters who has held up his end of the bargain in 3 straight. And there is reason and evidence to believe that the Canes can get it done in terms of effort level and defense. And even the offense has been creating some chances that just need to be finished. To beat the Avs the Canes need to be good in all these areas. After last week's turnaround I do not think the team is as far away as some might think. It is just a matter of even a decent offensive outbreak. Tuesday would be a great time for that.
A couple other things I will be watching:
--Drayson Bowman. The 4th line with veterans Malhotra and Dvorak has been incredibly good, and it has been getting 3rd-line-ish ice time of late. Both Malhotra and Dvorak scored huge game-winning goals last week. Both are heady veterans with pretty good puck possession skills. Drayson Bowman (who did log an assist on Murphy's goal in the last game) has more finishing potential than either of the 2 vets. His current situation in terms of potential to score is as good as he has seen in a long time minus very short stints on the EStaal line. If he works hard, think the game to find places where he can score and moves his feet, he could be the next to break out score sheet-wise on the 4th line.
--The start. Against somewhat lesser opponents the Canes came out ready to play last week. Will they do the same against Colorado? Or will they show too much respect and come out hesitantly and cautiously? I think the latter could lead directly to Colorado seizing the role of the better team, riding it to early momentum and a lead and never looking back.
Last time the Canes got a real good hockey team on a Tuesday night (the Blackhawks on October 15) the result was a very good hockey game and great hockey entertainment at PNC Arena. Here is hoping for the same tonight and a slightly better results (Canes lost the Hawks game in OT).
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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