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FLYERBUZZ: MOMENTUM WINS
Along with my new co-host, Erik Marsh, my latest installment of FlyerBuzz breaks down the Flyers' win in Detroit and the rest of the team's road trip. We also take a look at the play of Sean Couturier's line with Matt Read and Steve Downie.
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WAS COMEBACK IN DETROIT A MOMENTUM-BUILDING WIN FOR FLYERS?
Any hockey coach or player will tell you that is always best to stay on a mental even keel during the marathon-like season. Once the final horn sounds on a game, file that one away and move on to focus solely on the next match. Don't dwell too much on what's now in the past and don't look too far ahead on the schedule.
In reality, that can be pretty tough to do. Hockey is a game that is as much about the rising and falling tides of emotion and confidence as it about Xs-and-Os and on-paper matchups. That's a large part of what makes the sport so truly difficult to predict on any given night or before a playoff series.
During the course of the regular season in particular, coaches and players often publicly downplay the significance of any particular win or loss having a carryover effect. We all know that's not entirely true.
Statistically, of course, all wins are two points, but accumulated regulation and overtime wins do hold a "tiebreaker advantage" over shootout wins at the end of the season). All regulation losses are zero points and there's the consolation one point from an overtime or shootout loss.
Emotionally, all wins and all losses are not created equal. There are some that stay with a team more than others, and can have a carryover effect in upcoming games and future meetings with the most recent opponent. There's a definite snowball effect in hockey.
For instance, I think that there was a carryover effect early this season when the Flyers struggled in third periods right from opening night against Toronto. This was especially true after the club blew a third period lead and lost to the Canucks in regulation after being the better team early in the game.
For quite awhile thereafter, even when the Flyers led after two periods, the game did not "feel" under control despite the daunting leaguewide statistics on clubs' records when leading after two periods.
The game where the Flyers lost in regulation to Anaheim after playing a dominant first period and leading at the second intermission was a devastating loss at the time. That one seemed to emotionally linger for the next four games. Everyone on the club seemed to be in knots, too afraid to make mistakes rather than being bold and creative.
On the flip side, when the Flyers went off on their 6-0-1 run in November, they had an offensive outbreak against Edmonton that seemed to finally restore a measure of confidence to the team. The real takeoff game, however, was the next game in Ottawa that started a three-game road trip. The Flyers played virtually a perfect 60 minutes of hockey that night.
Next thing you knew, the Flyers found a way to come out on the right end of a 2-1 score in Pittsburgh the following night and that momentum rolled right on through a five-of-six-point road trip and six-of-six homestand.
In the latter part of that stretch, the Flyers were getting away with increasingly lengthy stretches of sloppy play. They were still winning -- in part because they played just well enough to win and in part because they were playing weaker or struggling opponents -- but you sense that the balloon was about to burst if Philly didn't get back to playing more like they did in that momentum-building road game in Ottawa.
Sure enough, the Flyers went 0-2-0 on their Florida road trip. The team has played at a .500 level (three wins, three losses) in the six games dating back to the loss against the Panthers.
It's going to be interesting now to see if the rousing comeback victory in Detroit -- especially the cathartic third period -- will prove to be the positive momentum builder for the Flyers. With three games left in their cross-country six game road trip, things are going to get pretty challenging.
First up is the Dallas Stars tomorrow afternoon. They are a team that can topple any opponent in the NHL on a given day and which, in fact, picks off its share of annual wins against teams that are better on paper than the current Flyers. Philly had better expect to have its hands full with Lindy Ruff's team tomorrow, although I consider the Stars to be a beatable club for the Flyers if they are diligent in keeping their feet moving.
Next week is going to be a tough one. On Monday, the Flyers have their third meeting with Ottawa in less than a month. That will be followed by the final game of the road trip coming against the defending Stanley Cup champion Chicago Blackhawks, who are looking eminently capable of winning another Cup this season. Oh yeah, the Chicago game will be followed up immediately with a home game against Montreal the next night in the third game of a three games, three cities, four nights stretch.
If the Flyers can manage to navigate the next four games with, say, a 2-1-1 mark, it will be a pretty good run. The win in Detroit has the potential to a momentum builder in that direction but the proof will have to be in the pudding.
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FLYERS IN BIG D
The Dallas Stars are a club that no team in the NHL can afford to underestimate. They've missed the playoffs by the narrowest of margins in each of the last three seasons and have since been made over with a young nucleus that figures to get better and better in the seasons to come.
The Stars are already a decent club -- I think they'll be on the playoff bubble again all season in the brutally difficult Western Conference -- but they have not truly arrived yet. When the Stars blossom, they are going to be a perennial playoff team again for an extended period of time. That may not happen for another year or two, and it may take some further reshaping of the veteran players on the blueline corps.
Mark my words on this as someone who has been covering Dallas (albeit usually from afar while focusing primarily on being around Philly to cover the Flyers directly) for HockeyBuzz for three-plus seasons: The Flyers had better be up on their skates tomorrow and be ready for what could be a rather testy game.
I plan on covering tomorrow's game from the pressbox at the American Airlines Center. That is a bit up in the air right now, however, because there are potential ice storms and record low temperatures in today and tomorrow's forecast that could complicate my early Saturday morning drive to Dallas from where I live part of the year in the Tyler vicinity (roughly 100 miles east of Dallas).
In any case, I will blog a rundown of the perspective on both sides of the game. It will be a fuller picture if I'm able to make it the watch the game in person and have postgame locker room access.
For starters, here is my rundown of some key things to watch in tomorrow's game.
Mason vs. Lehtonen: I see a lot of parallels between the careers of Kari Lehtonen and Steve Mason. Both were highly touted young goalies who went through some hard times -- often injury-related in Lehtonen's case -- while playing for bad teams. Both got a new lease on their hockey life in a new city. Both have been the MVPs of their respective clubs in Philly and Dallas, although Lehtonen has been doing it in Dallas for longer.
The Stars are a different -- and much, much better -- team when they have a healthy Lehtonen in the lineup than when they have a backup goalie in net. Lehtonen is capable of stealing games for his club and did just that earlier this week in Chicago. He is a big goalie (aren't they all nowadays?) and is tough to beat in close.
When he's on top of his game, Lehtonen doesn't have many weaknesses. He's at his most vulnerable when an opponent can generate some rapid puck movement and generate a shot on net -- even from a severe angle -- before he gets fully set. Sometimes Lehtonen will overcommit in loose puck situations and get caught out of position. Otherwise, the best bet is to generate screens, deflections and rebounds -- the same as with any goalie.
Pressure on the Dallas D: On the whole, the Stars' blueline is a bit undersized and, with the exception of Brenden Dillon, is lacking in physicality. The team suffered a devastating loss recently when veteran Stephane Robidas -- still the team's most reliable veteran defender and a team leader -- was lost for the season to a broken leg. Last night in Toronto, Trevor Daley had to be helped off the ice. Daley is the Stars' most mobile defenseman.
Even before the loss of two key players, the Stars' defense could sometimes be pressured into turnovers and getting out of position, and the level of defensive support from the forwards is inconsistent.
On the flip side, the Dallas defense corps has above-average mobility and can get the puck up ice in a hurry. The loss of Daley hurts in that area, but the Stars D corps are still decent puck movers on the whole. Additionally, the Flyers have been all too familiar through the years with the ability Sergei Gonchar has to generate tough-to-handle shots from the point, and Alex Goligoski remains a threat to pinch up on the play and generate offense.
The fastest-rising player on the Dallas defense is Dillon. He can do it all. He plays a physical brand of hockey and is an emerging shutdown defenseman but also makes a good first pass and has some latent offensive abilities that he's just started to tap into in his still-young NHL career. Although still not a household name around the NHL, Dillon is a virtual untouchable when teams call Stars GM Jim Nill about trades.
After Robidas went down, the Stars recalled second-year pro Jamie Oleksiak from the AHL's Texas Stars. The towering Oleksiak has star NHL defenseman potential but is still pretty raw at the NHL level.
Early in the season, Ruff had the undersized Goligoski paired with Gonchar. The duo was a defensive disaster and they've both been better since that pairing was broken up.
Burgeoning top line for Dallas: Tyler Seguin returned to the Stars' lineup last night in Toronto after missing the previous two games with concussion-like symptoms. He did not get on the scoreboard in Dallas' 3-2 overtime loss, but he logged heavy ice time and generated at least a half-dozen shots on Jonathan Bernier (the Stars outshot the Leafs by a 50-24 margin last night after getting outshot in Chicago by an equally lopsided amount).
The Stars' top line of Seguin, flanked by team captain Jamie Benn and 18-year-old rookie Valeri Nichushkin is one of the fastest-rising trios anywhere in the NHL. Without exaggeration, this line has the potential in the not-too-distant future to be among the top three lines in the entire NHL. They aren't there yet, mind you, but they have shown the ability at times to dominate a game here and a game there on a shift-in and shift-out basis.
Benn is one of my personal favorite players in the NHL. He is a do-it-all type of forward who combines skill and grit, with a little bit of sandpaper to his game as well. He hits clean but hits hard and can change the momentum of a game for his team. Benn never gives up on a play -- you always see him make that second and third effort.
If Benn has a flaw, it's that he sometimes tries to do a little too much when things aren't going well. He'll go into some goal-scoring droughts where he's pulling a lot of his shot attempts high and wide of the net. Benn is in a bit of a drought right now, actually, as he has one point (an assist) in his last five games and has gone eight games without a goal since his six-point explosion (one goal, five assists) against Calgary that got League-wide attention.
However, last night's game in Toronto was exactly the sort of game players like Benn often have one game before they bust loose for their next offensive hot streak. He generated eight shots on goal with numerous scoring chances and had nothing to show for it on that night. That won't be the case for much longer.
Nichushkin does not skate every shift on the top line and is not yet a big part of the Dallas special teams. As with most teenage players in the NHL, what you see from him is more flashes of jaw-dropping potential -- a great stickhandling sequence here, a bang-bang goal or assist there, fending off someone on the boards with ease and controlling the puck with one hand on his stick -- than consistently high performance.
Even right now, Nichushkin is a player opponents have to keep an eye on if they don't want to get burned. As he matures, watch out. If he lives up to even 75 percent of his potential, he's going to become a formidable offensive player. All the tools are there.
I strongly suspect that Craig Berube will try to have the Sean Couturier line out against the Seguin line as much as possible tomorrow. I think Couturier's unit can contain the trio or at least limit the damage, but they're going to have a good challenge in doing so.
Eakin and Chiasson: Most of the attention on the Stars outside Dallas gets focused on Seguin and Benn. But the Stars also having rising young players in two-way talent Eakin and sniper Chiasson. Along with 40-something winger Ray Whitney, they form a creditable second line that could win a matchup against Philly's second line, especially if Vincent Lecavalier remains sidelined. Additionally, Chiasson is one of the Stars most dangerous finishers on the power play. He has become very adept at going to the net and/or finding a seam around the slot with the defense's attention focused elsewhere.
Pot Stirrers: Even with Steve Ott and Adam Burish gone, the Stars still have their share of players who like to stir the pot. Antoine Roussel is the Dallas version of Zac Rinaldo, except Roussel has shown he has a bit of scoring ability at the NHL level, too. Ditto Ryan Garbutt, who has been playing the best hockey of his NHL career of late, and has even been scoring goals of late.
Additionally, checking forward Vernon Fiddler brings a presence to the Stars that is similar to what the now-departed Max Talbot brought to the Flyers during his two-plus seasons in Philly prior to the trade to Colorado in the Steve Downie deal. Fiddler is a good penalty killer and can create energy on the forecheck with the odd timely goal here and there.
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NEW FLYERBUZZ PODCAST
Later today, HockeyBuzz will have a new installment of the FlyerBuzz podcast in my blog space. We will discuss the potential momentum-building significance of the comeback win in Detroit as well as looking at the week to come.
I am thrilled to announce that I now have a co-host for my podcast. Starting today and throughout the season, I will be joined by Erik Marsh. Erik is our Red Wings blogger for HockeyBuzz but keeps close tabs on the Flyers and the NHL in general.
The Flyers actually remain the team closest to Erik's heart. As many of you know, Erik is the son of Flyers alumnus Brad Marsh, who spent a lengthy stint with the team in the 1980s and was a fan favorite throughout the Philadelphia portion of his 1,000-plus game NHL career. Erik was born in the Delaware Valley but now lives in the Ottawa vicinity.
Co-hosting with Erik will be a blast. Later in the season, we plan to have some special guests on the podcast. Now that Eklund is back from his vacation, I plan on podcasting again two or three days per week.
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