With Anton Khudobin slowly winding his way back from injury, the Carolina Hurricanes are nearing the point when the team will have three healthy NHL goalies, and with Justin Peters seemingly getting better by the game it is a very clearly three.
There is the possibility of keeping all three goalies on the NHL roster. With Mike Komisarek on injured reserve, the team could add Khudobin to the roster by temporarily sending Elias Lindholm to the AHL (or possibly to play with the Swedish junior team). I actually think that could happen short-term (see below), but I do not think that is a long-term answer that makes much sense. At forward or defense, you can always use more top-end depth since you use 12 and 8 players at these positions respectively in every game. But in goal, there is only one net to defend, so one player does nothing for 60 minutes most nights, and a third goalie is in the press box.
Because of this, it does not make much sense to keep too much depth at the position.
Since it is rare that you can benefit from having three solid goalies (Yes. I realize that the Canes just did), this situation is likely to force Canes GM Jim Rutherford’s hand rather quickly.
There are two things to consider:
1: What is best for right now/2013-14? After four consecutive playoff misses, the needs to do anything/everything it can to get back to the playoffs. Putting the best possible goalie in net every night is obviously part of that.
2: What is best for the future? As much as making the right move(s) for 2013-14 is important, it is also important to look forward a few years and consider the impact.
If you look only at No. 1, I think one thing becomes clear-- Justin Peters is Carolina's best option to win games at this point in time. Cam Ward is struggling right now. Anton Khudobin looked great in October but now has not played in almost two months. If Rutherford does decide to trade Justin Peters, I think he will drag his feet. I do not see how you could move Peters until you have at least one of the other two goalies playing well. The risk of blowing up the whole season while someone else found his game would be too great.
If you look at No. 2, Rutherford could have a huge decision to make-- Is Cam Ward still the No. 1 goalie for this team going forward?
On Sept. 30, '09, the team signed Ward for six years at nearly $40 million, and in the process made him a foundation of the franchise along with Eric Staal. There were good reasons for that. In the team’s magical 2006 Stanley Cup run, as a rookie, he showed the mettle of an NHL No. 1 who could not just survive but thrive under the greatest of pressure. While his regular seasons following that were not uniformly spectacular, he showed enough progress to suggest he was evolving into an elite player. Then in the 2009 playoffs he put up another impressive showing winning two road Game 7s and running his playoff series win record to 6-0 before he and the Canes succumbed to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Penguins in the Eastern Conference Finals.
But it's now been 4 seasons since then.
In that time frame, Ward has been okay not great and has not been able to lead his team to the playoffs. More recently he has had trouble staying healthy in consecutive years. And in 2013-14, he has yet to hit stride after being derailed by another injury and is carrying a goals against average above 3.00 and a save percentage barely above .900 on a Canes team that has made progress defensively.
Does Rutherford cling to Ward as a franchise player based on what he has been able to do in the playoffs
if the team can get there? Or does Rutherford get No. 1 goalie value for him while he still can and in the process cut salary in net significantly, get a good return via trade and go with less expensive options who have actually outplayed him this season?
That question sets the course for what Rutherford does with the goalie situation.
Personally, I would do the following:
1: Find a way to keep Peters on the roster until someone else proves capable of taking the controls without a big setback in the handoff (realizing that there is a chance this never happens). Making the playoffs for 2013-14 is priority No. 1. Lindholm could go back to Charlotte without risk of losing him to buy time if the Canes need to roster spot to make the math work.
2: Shop Ward for a fair value return. Under no circumstances would I trade Ward as a salary dump at a big discount, or just take the best available offer. But per my trade suggestion blog from December 2 (before his name starting popping up in trade banter more regularly), I would consider trading him if I could get a fair return that I thing significantly upgrades the team. The injury risk is part of it, but I also just think that with Peters and Khudobin the downgrade in net would be manageable even if Ward returned to form and the possible addition of a top-end forward or defenseman would make up for it. It is also important to note that as of right now there is actually not a downgrade to be given up in net with Peters outplaying Ward now and Khudobin outplaying Ward (albeit for a brief time) to start the season. Might Ward return to form and become the best of the three? Sure. It is very possible, but it is not at all guaranteed even with patience.
3: If instead, Rutherford decides that Ward is still his No. 1 despite temporary struggles, I think it is a two-part move. Part one is to get at least one of Khudobin or Ward playing well. Part two is to trade whichever of Khudobin or Peters yields the greatest return. Again based on the fact that there is only one goalie slot each game, I would rather trade whoever yields maximum value rather than mostly sit maximum value on the bench especially considering that both options have proved pretty good this season.
As a disclaimer, I can clearly see the argument for sticking with Ward. The thing that I like most about Ward is how well he has played in both of his runs in the playoffs. At the end of the day, the ultimate goal is to hoist the big shiny Cup in Raleigh again. If the team can somehow find its way back into the playoffs and if Ward can regain his form, there are very few goalies whom I would rank above him in terms of giving the team a chance in the playoffs.
Put more succinctly, Ward’s upside, especially in the playoffs is the thing that I most hate to give up. But not putting the cart before the horse (getting into the playoffs versus playing in them) and also considering contract and injury risk, I just think the path to the playoffs could improve significantly with a small (if any) downgrade in net, a sizable return in the form of another skater and a side benefit of more financial flexibility going forward.
What say you Canes fans? Is it crazy to even consider letting go a franchise goaltender? Would you trade Ward for the right return? Or do you think Cam Ward is going to come roaring back at some time during the 2013-14 season and make even suggesting this look silly? If Rutherford takes the more likely path of keeping Ward but trading one of the others, who would you keep?
If I get a chance, I hope to put up a short “sorting out the Canes goalie situation” on Twitter either late tonight or sometime Tuesday.
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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