When things aren't working I am definitely a person who likes to put reason to fault. Why does XYZ happen? Why is X less than Y? It's not like I have a math degree or anything either, music would be my forte but I digress. I like to have something tangible to look at to better solidify just what the heck is going on sometimes.
Hockey is no different.
How could this current Kings team be so different from the team we saw in early December? It seems impossible right? So I dug back into the shot charts courtesy of ESPN's gamecast (Which is also an awesome little tool if you want to see who is taking offensive zone penalties and such...) and discovered what looks like a stark difference in mentality.
In losses the Kings have seemingly been pushed to the outside. Content on taking shots form the perimeter, with very little inside position or chances. It's commonplace to believe that the highest scoring place on the ice is the slot. If you don't know where that is it's essentially this (forgive my crude representation):
The high priced real-estate between the circles and in front of the net. Some believe it can go higher up and wider but no doubt this where you will score a ton of goals. It offers the best percentage of beating the goaltender than anywhere else on the ice. It's also the hardest place to establish position for an opposing forward. Good thing the Kings have a bunch of huge bodied, physical forwards to get in there right? In theory and in application it works, and it is part of the reason why the power forward has made a resurgence in recent years.
So let's get to the Kings. I pulled charts from the last five games the Kings have played. Keep in mind where the slot is when you review these charts.
The 2-1 loss to the Ducks on Thursday January the 23rd:
Doesn't look
TOO bad. The Kings took 31 shots, but by my count just about 12 to 13 of those came in a REAL threatening area. In comparison the Ducks got off about 11 high quality shots on 21 total. Several right in the face of Jonathan Quick.
On to the next game,
the 3-0 loss at the Stadium Series game on January 25th.
By all accounts the Kings laid into the Ducks with 36 shots, about 16 or so coming from a good solid position. The Ducks, with their meager 21 shots made the most of opportunities with 11 in good areas and all 3 goals coming within that zone. While the Kings definitely had a shot mentality you can see the difference in style. The Ducks shot very infrequently, be it due to possession time or defensive imposition by the Kings, but they took more than half of their shots from a good area. The Kings on the other hand saw about 20 of their shots pushed to the outside.
Be mindful this isn't even counting how many shots the Kings get blocked or miss the net on. If you really want to go there, it can get pretty hairy.
The Kings had 17 shots blocked and missed the net 17 times as well. Also credit Jonas Hiller who had a strong performance that evening.
Moving on let's mix it up. Without cherry picking I went back and pulled the four games where the Kings went through Canada, playing arguably their strongest hockey of the season.
The 3-0 win over the Islanders on December 7th:
Notice the goal areas, notice the shot areas. The Kings mustered an unusually low 24 shots this game, but had about 11-12 of those shots including all 3 goals come from the best possible area. The Islanders blocked 15, the Kings missed on 12.
The following
6-0 game against Montreal on December 10th, which in my opinion was the performance of the season:
With 30 shots on goal that is a MASSIVE difference to the 36 shots they put on net against Anaheim in the Stadium series. Look at where the majority came from. Right in Carey Price and the Canadien's kitchen. Where the shots were spread out and spaced out in the Anaheim game, everything this game was in the paint in basketball terms. Twelve of the Kings 30 shots alone were within 10-12 feet of the goal. Pay attention to the style of Montreal also, they too did a great job getting pucks in good areas but credit the Kings goaltending. They only had two powerplays this game also mind you
two final comparisons before I break it down a little.
The
December 14th 5-2 win against Ottawa.
Another strong, in-your-face performance where the majority of King chances were right in the face of the Sens.
Finally the 3-0 loss to Phoenix on January 28th.
You can see the differences between the two teams quite clearly. Everything up close and personal for the Coyotes, second and third chances potentially, or scrambles for the puck in the crease. The Kings offense on the other hand keeps play to the perimeter for the most part.
It's honestly hard to draw conclusions from shot charts alone, but when you couple it with having watched about 95% of the games this season you can start somewhere. What a novel concept right? Better chances form better areas equals more goals. However, it's about mentality and playing games on your terms. Take that area from other teams rather than playing to the outside. With all the detractors in mind, being small sample sizes and extreme lack of confidence now vs. those December games, the Kings tend to make their own luck. To me they are an aggressive team by design and one that is built to get up in your face rather than pass around you. When you watch the highlights of the game against Ottawa, aside from the weak goals from Anderson, to start it you can see that when the Kings drive the zone and assert themselves in the slot they are unbelievably successful. Work the cycle, work the front of the net...play Kings hockey.
To me, when the Kings get too much time and space they lock up. The worst thing opposing teams are doing right now is giving the Kings powerplays. It gives them too much time and too much space, and for some reason the Kings are not a team that works well with time and space. Think about how many 2-on-1s, heck 3-on-1s that you've seen the Kings lose the handle on. When it comes to doing something other than cycle, grind it out, and crash the net, the Kings have no idea how to go about that.
For me, while I am not completely opposed to the insertion or acquiring of a goal scorer via trade, I don't think it's the answer. In this time of desperation for the team I think the best thing they can do is buy in. The Sutter brand of hockey works to me, but like any human being in situations of struggle the Kings are doubting themselves and their style. Focusing on how their powerplay can't score, their offense is stagnant, and they are falling quickly down the standings they have lost confidence in their system.
Buy in. The King team that was arguably the hottest team in the league around the holidays was one that was completely confident in how they went about their business. This one currently is not, and they are trying to be a different team than they are built to be at times. Back to basics, back to Kings hockey, one game at a time.
I know there are tons of people screaming for trades and for firings but at this point I think I am going to agree with what most of the Kings players are saying. Matt Greene summed it up well
in his post game comments with Jon Rosen of LA Kings Insider last night
On looking for a spark:
It’s got to come from in here. We’ve got everybody here, and we’ve got to provide that spark on our own, and if not, we’ve got to make some changes. Right now it’s up to us to get this going.
Everyone has to buy in.
I think it will be apparent who is buying in and who isn't if any moves are made at the deadline.
Three more games before the Olympic break remain: Philadelphia, Columbus, and Chicago. No easy opponents here, and perhaps some games that will decide the future of a few LA Kings players.
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