I spoke with my long-time friend and collaborator Eklund earlier this week. In the coming days, we at Hockeybuzz.com will be delivering the 2014 Winter Olympic Games to you, through our eyes. Our writers will analyze each team in this ultra-exciting short tournament that will determine worldwide hockey supremacy.
I’m excited that Eklund has charged me with the task of covering Team USA during the upcoming brawl for it all. In the coming days, I will share with you my pre-tournament scouting reports and my analysis of the American roster. There’s a lot to like about Team USA’s unique and talented lineup.
The forward group is big, fast and highly skilled. The D is agile, mobile, and sometimes hostile. In my opinion, Team USA’s fortunes and hopes of advancing to the medal round at Sochi will rest firmly on the shoulders of their starting goaltender. Scoring in this best of the best tourney won’t be easy. It never is in Olympic competition. The best players in the world aren’t habitual mistake makers. For this reason, scoring chances are usually few and far between. The skating is up-tempo and the stick-to-stick D is constricting to the offensive flow. At the Olympics, the great players convert turnovers into scoring opportunities. Controlling the blue lines is crucial. Constricting the flow is the key. Team USA and Team Canada are trained to play the north-south game while their European counterparts practice the fundamentals of east-west hockey, where the stress and emphasis is on stretching the width of the ice, not the length of it, and taking advantage of the 15 extra feet (7.5 feet on each wall) of playing surface. The host Russians, the slippery Swedes, and the pesky Finns will use their speed laterally taking so spread their opponents out, thus creating passing lanes and seams with which to create scoring opportunities. The teams that commit the most penalties in this tournament will be the ones who make their early exit. Special teams will win and lose games in the preliminary and qualification rounds. The PP units for each of the teams in the tournament will be a collection of the best offensive players in the world. The penalty killers will also represent the best of the best in terms of shot blocking, stick positioning and skills. Just like it is in the NHL, the best killers will have to be the goaltenders. On the bigger ice surface, the angles will be similar but different from the cozy confines of the 200 by 85 sheet in NHL buildings. The European teams love the extra room behind the nets to set up shop in and make plays from. Its a different game on the 200 by 100 international sheet. The North American teams will have to adjust accordingly. This isn’t going to be a North American chip-chase-bang tournament like it was at Vancouver and Salt Lake City. Canada won gold on the NHL ice. How have they and the Americans done on the international rink in recent Olympics?
The teams with the best goaltending and special teams will advance to the gold medal game.
Does Team USA have what it takes to make a long run to the medal round at Sochi? Inquiring minds want to know. I think that it all hinges on which goalie that David Poile, Ray Shero, and Dan Bylsma considers to be the starter. The Penguins played in Buffalo on Tuesday night and in the postgame scrum, I learned a thing or two about which way Bylsma is leaning with respect to his starting goalie. A reporter asked Bylsma what he was thinking after Sidney Crosby scored a gorgeous PPG, and his power forward Geno Malkin took a Jamie McBain turnover at the blue line and scored a sexy breakaway dangle. Ryan Miller had very little chance of making the save on either world-class player’s impressive offering. Bylsma said that on that night that he cheered for Sid and Geno, however, he wouldn’t be so quick to prop 87 or 71 when their respective Russian and Canadian squads lock horns with Miller and the Americans in Sochi when the tourney kicks off on February 12. I’ll be candid. Ever since Jonathon Quick suffered a Grade 2 groin strain in Buffaklo on November 12, Miller has been my personal choice to be Team USA’s starter at the Sochi games. Listening to Bylsma’s recent complimentary analysis of Ryan Miller’s overall game this season leads me to my conclusion that he and Team USA’s management are leaning towards starting the Buffalo Sabre in their net when the games begin late next week. Whats’s not to like about Miller? Back in August when Team USA orientation camp commenced in suburban Washington, DC, Miller was one of five goalies who were invited to the party. Jonathon Quick, Craig Anderson, Jimmy Howard, and youngster John Gibson were also invited to the dance. Team USA bird dog scout and former GM Brian Burke told the media in DC that Miller was not a lock to be one of USA’s three goalies on the Sochi-bound roster. The thinking was that Quick, Anderson and Howard would mount their own campaigns to unseat the incumbent Miller, who was one save short of winning the gold medal at the Vancouver games in 2010. Since the beginning of the current NHL season in early October 2013, Miller has been the most consistent, most impressive tender of the USA crop. He’s remained healthy and focused, despite playing for the 30th ranked team in the NHL, while Quick and Howard have battled personal injuries and slumps. Anderson’s game went south between November through January to the point he was bypassed by the USA selection committee. Gibson has been playing in the AHL all season long.
Poile, Shero, and Bylsma know that Miller’s the goods. They know that he’s been there, done that, and won the MVP award before. Whats added more equity to Miller’s stick this time around s that he has kept his mouth shut and gone about his business during this dreadful season in Buffalo. On many a night, I’ve seen Team USA scouts on press row in Buffalo keeping tabs on Miller. They’ve been watching Miller’s in-game play and his sensational save making. I’ve been told by a scout that the Team USA brass has also been keying in on Miller’s body language in warm-ups and during games. They’ve been impressed by his upbeat attitude and his positive body language even ain losing efforts. Before Ted Nolan took over the Buffalo bench on November 13, Miller was routinely seeing 40+ shots per game under Ron Rolston. Miller was seeing more frozen vulcanized rubber than the Don Valley Parkway and QEW combined in February rush hour traffic. That’s a lot of rubber, folks. When Nolan took over, he immediately sent the prospects back to juniors and the AHL, and he tightened up Buffalo’s overall team defense. What it did was dramatically reduce the number of shots and chances against Miller. Miller survived the early season barrage without ever complaining about it. The scouts were watching to see how he would react. He clearly passed their test because right now he is in the driver’s seat to be Team USA’s starting goalie.
Miller has had to overcome some at-times massive adversities this season. Quick hasn’t. By comparsion, Quick has an all-star team playing in front of him in Lip Stick City.
I think Miler is your starter, and Quick is the back-up tender. Jimmy Howard will be the disaster goalie and will practice with the team, however, he won’t even see the crease during this short tournament.
Here’s how I see the Team USA rotation in the first three games of the preliminary round:
Thursday, February 13 Slovakia: Ryan Miller
Saturday February. 15 Russia: Ryan Miller
Sunday February 16 Slovenia: Jonathon Quick
Tuesday February 18 Qualification: Ryan Miller
Wednesday February 19 Quarterfinals: TBD
Friday February 21 Semifinals: TBD
Saturday February 22 Bronze Medal Game: TBD
Sunday February 23 Gold Medal Game: TBD
Here’s my thought process:
Familiarity breeds contempt.
Miller sees Chara, Sekera and the Slovaks on a regular basis in Eastern conference head to head match-ups. That’s why I’d start him in Game 1 vs. Slovakia.
Miller has made 12 saves on 12 shots against Alex Ovechkin this season. In fact, Miller has made 77 saves on 79 shots vs. Ovechkin and the Washington Capitals this season
Quick sees Anze Kopitar in practice everyday. Let Quick play against his Kings buddy and Slovenia.
This is not a popularity contest. It’s a quest to advance to the qualification round. There are no throwaway games in the preliminary round.
If for some reason Miller falters in the preliminary round, Bylsma can always lean on Quick.
To get his team of on the right skate, Bylsma has to go with what he knows. Right now, Miller is his best option to win games at the Olympics. Its a good time for Team USA to go back to the future. Miller's in a zone right now and a hot goalie in a short tourney is a good thing to have.
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