One of the biggest conundrums that teams in all sports face is knowing when to be patient through a young player's learning curve. Progress isn't always rapid from year to year, and there are sometimes seeming backward steps along the way.
Charting improvement isn't always a straight upward arrow from a player's first training camp to the point where he reaches his maximum potential. On the other hand, many players never reach the full potential that was initially envisioned for them. It's tough to know when a player is still in his early 20s whether what you see now is the most you're likely to get in years to come.
Flyers forward Brayden Schenn has made progress over the course of his three NHL seasons to date. It hasn't been dramatic or all-encompassing progress, but it's still improvement nonetheless. As a player whose primary value comes from his point production, this is his NHL-level statistical evolution to date:
2011-12: 54 GP, 12 G, 6 A, 18 PTS, -7 34 PIM, 4 PPG, 1 PPA, 14:07 TOI, 46.1 FO%, 136 hits
2012-13: 47 GP, 8 G, 18 A, 26 PTS, -8, 24 PIM, 2 PPG, 8 PPA, 15:31 TOI, 45.5 FO%, 109 hits
2013-14: 82 GP, 20 G, 21 A, 41 PTS, E, 54 PIM, 4 PPG, 5 PPA, 15:44 TOI, 43.2 FO%, 200 hits
At age 22, Schenn has just completed his first 20-goal season in the league. There have been stretches of games where he has looked like a burgeoning heart-and-soul player who wins key puck battles and produces points while also playing a bit of a mean streak in his game.
On the other hand, Schenn is still very inconsistent. He's prone to lengthy droughts in his offensive production and other parts of his game are still works in progress.
Schenn has become a more physical player from his rookie year to his third year but could still win battles on a more frequent basis. He is an average skater. He is an average playmaker who creates the occasional scoring chance for himself or for linemates but is not not exceptionally hard on the puck or creative in finding space. He still gets impatient with the puck on his stick and puts it in low-percentage areas.
On the defensive side of the puck, Schenn was a below-average NHL player during his rookie year of 2011-12. He has modestly improved over his career to date and is now average for a player in a second-line role. There is still further improvement needed to get Schenn to the point where he is an asset in other areas even when he's in an offensive slump.
Faceoffs are another trouble spot for Schenn. If he is to become a full-time center, he needs to get significantly better in the circle. His faceoff percentages have actually gone backwards over his first three seasons (46.1 percent as a rookie, 45.5 percent in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, 43.2 percent this year).
It would have nice to see Schenn finish out the 2013-14 season with an offensive surge down the stretch and the playoffs. Instead, he stumbled to the finish line from a production standpoint.
Schenn went pointless in 11 of the 12 final games -- the exception was a two-goal outburst against the lowly Buffalo Sabres -- and had no goals and three assists to show for the Flyers' seven-game loss to the New York Rangers in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs.
He did play an important role in setting up a pair of goals in the Rangers series. Schenn made a nice low, deflectable shot that Jakub Voracek tipped upstairs on Henrik Lundqvist for the game winning tally in Game Four. In Game Six, Schenn forced a Dan Girardi turnover and then cut over the middle in a sequence that ended with a Wayne Simmonds goal.
Here's the thing, though: Those two plays encompassed pretty much all of Schenn's offensive highlights for the series. He threw a lot of bodychecks but did not seem to generate much in the way of sustained forechecking pressure or control of the puck in a cycling game deep in New York territory.
Many observers, including myself, felt that Schenn was ineffective overall in the New York series. However, Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren said on Friday that he felt Schenn elevated his overall game in the New York series.
According to Holmgren, the player has played the best hockey of his career in the team's 2012 playoff series against the Pittsburgh Penguins (which is tough to dispute) and the seven-game loss to New York.
"When I met with him [on Friday], I told him he’s played 11 playoffs games two years ago, seven this year, and those might have been pretty close to his best games," said Holmgren. "Playoff games are where you need your players to play good. I think he played a harder game in the playoffs. Is it easy to get up for the Penguins and Rangers? Yeah, it probably helps."
In the bigger picture, however, both Holmgren and head coach Craig Berube feel that Schenn has more to give than he has contributed in the early stages of his NHL career.
Said Holmgren, "I would say Brayden can score goals. I think once he figured out to play a hard game all the time, he took another leap where he needs to go with his career. ...I want him, like a lot of fans, to get better right away. But with any young player sometimes it takes a little bit longer than we’re all prepared to wait. He’s a good, young player.”
Added Berube, "We talked, and he understands he has to be more consistent. I think, as a team, we have to be more consistent. I think in general our team has to understand that to be a championship caliber team and a top echelon team in the NHL, consistency is huge."
One of the big question marks going forward with Schenn is whether he will play center or left wing. The young forward has shuttled back and forth between the middle and the wing in all three of his NHL seasons, and the addition of Vincent Lecavalier last summer ended up creating an even bigger conundrum.
A career-long center, Lecavalier was tried on both wings this season. He had little success. In the meantime, the veteran also got exposed defensively and struggled to gel with Schenn and Simmonds when Lecavalier was used as the second line center and Schenn played left wing. The line was also configured for a time with Schenn in the middle.
Schenn has tended to play better games when placed at center. He has not been as effective when playing the wing. The frequent changes of position may not have been helpful for his all-around development to date. The Flyers' general manager sees things otherwise, but concedes that Schenn is a natural center.
“I don’t know. I do think he’s a center deep down," said Holmgren. "I think you all know I like having a lot of centers. I believe that center is huge. I think it’s easy for centers to play wing."
That final statement is not necessarily true. Lecavalier certainly didn't find it easy to play wing this season. Danny Briere was never as effective at wing as at center. During his Flyers days, Jeff Carter did not do as well at right wing as he did in the middle. Going back some years, Rod Brind'Amour performed decently when asked to play wing but was better and happier at center. Chris Gratton, on the other hand, was a disaster at left wing when Brind'Amour was eventually switched back to center.
Lecavalier needs to play center, and the team is not paying him all that money to be a fourth-line center and power play specialist (although that role, quite frankly, is where he was most effective after December). Schenn is also better at center, and his role needs to be as a top-six forward.
May see that as a problem. Holmgren says it is not.
"I don’t think that, no," said Holmgren. "I think it’s a luxury. Obviously, somebody has got to play wing. Maybe it’s not Vinny and it becomes Brayden, but at the end of the day that’s [up to] the coach.”
Berube does not want to commit this early to where he'd play Schenn and Lecavalier next season.
Said the coach, "I think we’ve got to come to camp with a clean slate and we’ve got to see where we’re at. I can’t sit here and say this guy goes here this guy goes there. I can’t do that right now. I’ve got to see at camp and see what kind of team we’ve got at camp. Who knows how it’s going to change? I’ve got to evaluate that then."
In looking back at what happened this season, Berube conceded that it was tough to find a spot where Lecavalier clicked with his linemates.
"That line [with Lecavalier on wing and Schenn in the middle] wasn’t working. So I put [Lecavalier] on the fourth line to put him in the middle. I didn’t want to move Brayden Schenn at the time, and I thought the fourth line was really good when [Lecavalier] was there," said Berube.
It seems pretty clear that the Flyers cannot have another season of shuttling around both Lecavalier and Schenn. Since neither player has shown himself to be as effective on the wing as he is in the middle, the two players also seem incompatible to playing on the same line.
In the meantime, there is another conundrum with Schenn: his contract. Schenn has now completed his entry level contract and can become a restricted free agent on July 1. At Friday's end-of-season press conference, Holmgren said that there have been no discussions about Schenn's contract since last summer.
That is very telling. The Flyers are an organization that prefers to get its core players locked up in new contracts well ahead of free agency. This past season alone, the Flyers reached terms on a two-year bridge contract to Sean Couturier and a three-year extension to pre-empt restricted free agency for goaltender Steve Mason.
The fact that there were no in-season negotiations for Schenn strongly suggests that the two sides were far apart last summer and decided to renew talks after the 2013-14 season. Unfortunately, things are no easier now than they were a year ago.
Schenn's now-expired entry level contract was signed when he was a member of the Los Angeles Kings organization. According to a TSN report by Darren Dreger, the Schenn deal was structured with a
variety of performance bonuses, including many that were unreachable.
What was the motivation for the Schenn camp to agree to a deal like that? It had everything to do with setting a price for his SECOND contract. With all bonuses included, Schenn's entry-level deal came out to an average annual value of $3.1 million (although he didn't collect nearly that much in actual dollars). The goal was probably to get Schenn to receive something in the neighborhood of $3.1 million per season in real dollars in his bridge contact.
The fact that the Flyers have had no contract discussions with the Schenn camp since last summer is further evidence that the price tag each side had in mind for his second contract was nowhere near the same ballpark. As a frame of reference, the Flyers signed Couturier to a two-year extension that kicks in next season. The bridge deal carries a $1.75 million cap hit and real-dollar salary.
In contract negotiations this off-season, Schenn's agent will undoubtedly point to the fact that Schenn hit the 20-goal mark in his third NHL season and plays in the Flyers' top-six rotation at even strength as well as the second power play unit. The Flyers will say that Schenn's overall current value to the team when all factors are considered is NOT higher than Couturier's. While Couturier scored just 13 goals this season, he is rapidly emerging as one of the NHL's top defensive centers and penalty killers. Schenn is better offensively but not in other key areas.
A final point to consider: There is a possibility that Schenn -- possibly by himself and possibly in combination with defenseman brother Luke -- could be traded by the Flyers this summer. There is a need to add a proven but reasonably young two-way NHL defenseman with good mobility as well a little more speed and/or finishing skill on the wing (especially someone whose preferred spot is on the left side).
It would be foolish for the Flyers to pull the plug on Brayden Schenn out of frustration with his staccato progress early in his career. They do not seem to be of that mindset. However, it would be equally foolish not to consider ways to improve the team overall (i.e., making the puzzle pieces fit together better) that may necessitate trading one or both Schenn brothers or else trying to get Lecavalier to waive his no-trade clause and moving him to open cap space.
COMING TOMORROW: Thoughts on Lecavalier and Kimmo Timonen.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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