ASSESSING HARTNELL'S 2013-14 season

Flyers left winger Scott Hartnell has simultaneously been one of the team's most popular and yet divisive players over the course of his seven seasons in Philadelphia. He has always been a streaky player offensively and, in other aspects of the game, can be rather unpredictable.

Following Hartnell's career year in 2011-12, the Flyers signed him to a six-year contract extension to pre-empt his potential unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2013 and get the deal done ahead of the expiration of the last Collective Bargaining Agreement between the NHL and the Players' Association. The 2013-14 season was the first year of the new deal, which will run until the end of the 2018-19 season.

The contract was a bit of a trade off on both sides. There was more risk on the Philadelphia side.

On the Hartnell side, coming off a 37-goal season, he agreed to a contract that only modestly raised his cap hit from $4.2 million to $4.75 million. The deal was a little bit frontloaded, but not outrageously so. Year one of the contract (2013-14) paid him $6 million, with the next three seasons to pay him $5 million. The real-dollar salary drops slightly to $4.5 million in 2017-18. Only the final year of the contract, 2018-19, is a true cap hit mitigation year with the real dollar salary dropping to $3 million.

A former first-round by Nashville, Hartnell made the immediate jump to the NHL at age 18. All of his NHL contracts from his original entry-level deal in Nashville to his Flyers extension will gross to $38.36 million of career earnings by the time he receives his final paycheck on the current deal.

As such, the Hartnell camp could afford to be flexible in keeping the cap hit on the latest deal within the same ballpark of his original Flyers contract signed upon his acquisition from the Predators. The only real drawback to the Philadelphia extension at a sub $5 million cap hit was that it displeased some agents and fellow NHLPA members by setting a "low bar" for a player coming off a season with 35-plus goals and nearing UFA status.

On the Flyers side, the contract length and a full no-movement clause meant the team was pretty much making a full commitment to the power forward (barring a career-ending injury) being part of the team until he is 37 years old. Given that many power forwards tend to break down physically by their early to mid 30s and their production tends to decrease steeply even when they are in the lineup, there is increasing risk with each passing year with the now 32-year-old Hartnell.

Mind you, not all power forwards fall off a cliff in their effectiveness after they pass age 30. Mike Knuble, for instance, actually had by far his best years and biggest roles on his respective teams from age 29 until near the end of his career. There are also players like Brendan Shanahan who seemed to defy Father Time by continuing to churn out strong seasons well after they reached "power forward danger zone" age.

Hartnell has been remarkably durable thus far in his career. A broken foot set him back during the lockout shortened 2012-13 season but he has otherwise rarely missed games in his NHL career. He dressed in 78 games this season, had a run of five 80-plus game regular seasons upon his arrival in Philadelphia. Next season, Hartnell will hit the coveted 1,000-game milestone in his regular season NHL career. He has also dressed in 91 playoff games to date.

As a rule of thumb, however, power forwards are among the NHL's riskiest long-term investments once the wear-and-tear starts to accumulate. They can seem physically indestructible for years and then "suddenly" break down.

A good case in point was John LeClair. The Legion of Doom left winger had a run of seasons in which he dressed in every game and only missed a total of six games (all in 1998-99) during his first six seasons in Philadelphia. He took a pounding night after night and was immovable from in front of the net. Moreover, it was usually the opposing player who got the worst of collisions with LeClair even when the opponent would be the one initiating the hit. LeClair would simply dip his shoulder and the other player would take a seat on the ice.

That all changed at age 31. LeClair's back gave out on him and he was never the same player again. Yes, he did have one final 82-game season (2001-02) but his effectiveness was half of what it used to be and not all of it had to do with Eric Lindros' departure from the Flyers.

OFFENSIVE PRODUCTION AND LINE FIT

Whenever Hartnell has been reasonably healthy, you can pretty much take a 20-plus goal season to the bank. The 2013-14 campaign marked his fifth Flyers season with at least 20 goals, and his seventh 20-goal season in the NHL.

It is also worth noting that, over the course of his Flyers career, Hartnell has been part of three different successful lines that have been rather different in their dynamics on the ice but have produced results. Even his harshest critic cannot entirely discredit Hartnell's role in their success.

First, Hartnell had success with Jeff Carter and Joffrey Lupul during the 2008-09 season. That year was the first of Hartnell's two 30-plus goal seasons with Philadelphia. Next, Hartnell was a space-creating presence on the line with Danny Briere and Ville Leino that helped spark the Flyers to within two wins of the Stanley Cup during the 2010 playoffs and followed it up with a solid season in 2010-11 before Leino departed Philadelphia for his ill-fated unrestricted free agency windfall with the Buffalo Sabres.

Hartnell's career season, of course, came in 2011-12. That year, he was part of the Flyers' top-line trio with Claude Giroux and Jaromir Jagr and an integral part of the top power play unit. Hartnell bagged 37 goals and 67 points. After Jagr's free agency departure in the summer of 2012, Jakub Voracek was promoted from the third to first line. Hartnell remained on the unit and also maintained his spot on the top power play unit.

The downside to Hartnell's productivity is his streakiness. All players have ups and downs over the course of a season, and power forwards in particular tend to be a feast-or-famine lot. Nevertheless, Hartnell has always been exceptionally streaky even by power forward standards.

In 2013-14, Hartnell's cold and hot spells even when playing with a Hart Trophy candidate such as Giroux and a high-quality right winger in Voracek were a little bit excessive. He had enough quality scoring chances -- both at even strength and on the power play -- to be closer to his third-career 30 goal season that his 20 goal regular season and generally disappointing playoffs (no goals, three assists) actually amounted to a bit of underachievement this year in the goal-scoring department.

Here's a look at the progression of Hartnell's season from a production standpoint:

Pre-Olympic break
ICE COLD STRETCH -- First nine RS games (Oct 2 to Nov 2) - zero points
Next eight games (Nov 5 to Nov 21) - four goals, two assists
Next six games (Nov 23 to Dec 2) - one goal, one assist
Next three games (Dec 4 to Dec 9) - one goal, three assists
Next five games (Dec. 11 to Dec. 19) - zero goals, one assist
HOT STRETCH -- Next 24 games (Dec. 21 to Olympic break) - nine goals, 15 assists

Post-Olympic break
Next four games (Feb 27 to March 5) - zero goals, two assists
HOT STRETCH -- Next 10 games (March 8 to March 28) - five goals, five assists
COLD STRETCH -- Final 9 RS games (March 30 to April 13) - zero goals, three assists
PLAYOFFS - Seven-game loss to New York Rangers - zero goals, three assists

Although Hartnell spent most of the 2013-14 season with Giroux and Voracek at five on five, he did have two stretches of play where he was moved to the second line with Brayden Schenn in the middle and Wayne Simmonds at right wing. During that span, Michael Raffl saw a stretch of time on the Giroux line.

Although seemingly an oddly matched line without a clear cut puckhandler/playmaker, the trio had a productive stretch before Hartnell was moved back to the top line. Later, Hartnell played Game Six and Game Seven of the Rangers series with Schenn and Simmonds. Raffl started those games on the Giroux line.

FORECHECKING WORK

First and foremost, Hartnell's role on the Flyers has always been to be a player who can get in deep on the forecheck. It is up to him to win battles on the walls, create opposition turnovers and to help the team maintain puck possession on its cycling game.

Hartnell's other main job responsibility at five-on-five is to crash the net and to set up screens. He is relied upon to score the so-called greasy goals from close range via rebounds, loose puck scrambles and deflections. In my opinion, he did not have a very good season in that regard in 2013-14.

On the power play, Simmonds is the Flyers' main net-front presence. Hartnell is there to dig out some pucks and help the team get set up in the offensive zone. He is also there to slide inside the hash marks and get inside the opposing penalty killing box to fire off snap-shots and one timers. The Flyers used this puck rotation with great success during the 2011-12 season but it worked more sporadically the last two seasons.

Even apart from going goalless, Hartnell had a subpar playoff series against the New York Rangers. With the notable exception of creating a Ryan McDonagh turnover and setting up an Andrew MacDonald goal in the first period of Game One, Hartnell was not winning the battles the Flyers needed him to win. Game Six was arguably Hartnell's best game of the series.

DISCIPLINE AND HOCKEY SENSE

These are the areas where Hartnell's critics take the greatest issue with his play. Hartnell has always been prone to taking unnecessary, ill-timed penalties, and probably always will be. Hartnell will often talk the talk about the team needing to exercise better discipline and willingly admit that he can be among the worst culprits, but then doesn't walk the walk.

With that being said, Hartnell actually came out on the positive end of the penalty ledger this season for the Flyers. He did take an average of 1.3 penalties per game (27th most of all NHL players who dressed in at least 40 games this season). However, he also drew an average of 1.6 penalties per game on the opposition (13th best in the NHL at creating power play opportunities for his own team).

When he has the puck on his stick, Hartnell is more skilled than most of his detractors think. He can draw attention from defenders and make a good dish to a teammate. Although he doesn't have an elite finishing touch and is not a player whom a team would especially want on a breakaway or a penalty shot/shootout situation, he does sometimes surprise with a perfectly placed shot.

On the flip side, Hartnell makes more than his fair share of bad plays with the puck. When the Flyers play teams against whom real estate is at a premium and/or who thrive on counterattacks, Hartnell is among the Flyers who is the most prone to getting himself and his linemates caught on the wrong side of the puck. He is prone to getting impatient and failing to keep things simple.

Case in point: The ice at Madison Square Garden is notoriously bad, especially in the playoffs. Players on both the Flyers and Rangers alike were having trouble completing passes, as the disc was prone to bouncing away or suddenly hopping on its edge. This was especially true in Game Five.

On at least three occasions in Game Five, Hartnell made back passes -- two were blind drop passes and one was a diagonal pass where he pulled up -- that not only gave up hard-earned real estate but also then put the team in a vulnerable odd-man counterracking position as the puck eluded its intended target.

Hartnell is an OK skater for a player of his size and style. He's not a plodder or a speedster. The bigger issue with him has always been his balance, or lack thereof. The "Hartnell Down" jokes are funny when the player randomly falls down away from the play with no one near him. It's not so humorous when it costs the team a potential scoring chance or, worse, results in an odd-man rush the other way where Hartnell is unable to bounce right up and backcheck.

DRESSING ROOM VALUE

Hartnell has long been a well-liked player in the dressing room. He usually keeps things loose and relaxed, which is needed in a high-pressure winning environment. Hartnell is also one of the Flyers' most active players in the Delaware Valley community, and his charitable efforts for a variety of causes are commendable.

Part of the reason for his longevity with the Flyers has been that he has a temperament that is rather well suited to playing in this market. He lets things roll off his back most of the time, so he can deal with with both the ups and downs of dealing with fans and the media. Hartnell has a sense of humor that is self-deprecating and yet also somewhat sardonic. That plays well in Philadelphia.

ONGOING ROLE

It is not out of the question that new Flyers general manager Ron Hextall would would try to gauge other teams' interest in Hartnell this off-season and, if there is a viable deal, approach the player about waiving his no-movement clause.

With that being said, I don't think that's the team's most likely course of action. Vincent Lecavalier is the veteran forward on a long-term contract who appears to be the one most likely to get traded even if the Flyers have to eat some of his cap hit and/or take an undesirable contract in return.

In retrospect, the Flyers' better course of action with Hartnell might not have to been to sign him to the lengthy extension in the summer of 2012. He ended up having a down year, partially due to injury and partially due to not being in peak condition after the lockout. If he tested the market last summer with the cap ceiling temporarily going down -- or even if the Flyers had extended him ahead of July 1 -- the team may have been able to sign him to the same cap hit he has now but shaved at least three years off the contract length.

Right now, the gamble to extend Hartnell's deal so early is not paying off. Could he bounce back at least 25 goals next season if not flirt with his third 30-goal season? It's possible. But it's equally possible that the dreaded power-forward production slide could happen.

Barring the acquisition of a bonafide top line sniper on wing, the most likely role for Hartnell next season is to come to camp once again holding the top line left wing spot. It is not a lock that he will hold it all of next season, but there are no clear-cut candidates right now to bump Hartnell down to the second or third line.

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