Follow me on Twitter @ToddCordell
Devils general manager Lou Lamoriello has a lot of personnel decisions to make this off-season. One thing I'm very intrigued to see is what he elects to do with the 4th line.
Stephen Gionta, Steve Bernier and Ryan Carter made names for themselves with the Devils a couple years ago during their surprising run to the Stanley Cup Final. They consistently produced offense, and always seemed to come up with a big play when the Devils needed it most.
Since then, their play has tailed off, and many fans want them back based off what they've done in the past, as opposed to what they've done for the team lately.
All three of them are set to become unrestricted free agents in July, and Lamoriello has yet to show his hand as to what he has in mind for the beloved 4th line.
My colleague
Ryan Wilson wrote a similar post on the Penguins 4th line, and used many of the advanced statistics I use in this space to help illustrate his points effectively, so I'm going to do the same.
Like Carter, Gionta and Bernier, Jacob Josefson needs a new contract, but he's a restricted free agent and is young, so it's probably a safe bet to assume he'll be retained and used in a 4th line role next season.
Since that'll likely be the case, I added Josefson's numbers in comparison to the others so you can see how he stacked up, although his sample size is much smaller.
First off, let's take a look to see how these four fared when it came to producing points during 5 vs 5 play.
Before everyone starts shredding Josefson for his poor numbers, let's remember how a) he played significantly less games so there's a better chance for larger variations and; b) the limited minutes he saw when he was in the lineup.
I think the more alarming number there is Bernier's points/60 of 5 vs 5. If you recall, Bernier spent a good portion of the season playing in the top-9 - and even top-6 - when the Devils were dealing with several injuries up front for the first 2/3 to 3/4 of the season. Bernier's numbers were extremely poor for a player given his opportunity, which makes me scratch my head as to why he was given such an extended look in scoring roles to begin with.
Reid Boucher looked a little lost at times, but when he was up only Jaromir Jagr averaged more points per 60 minutes of full strength hockey. For a team as offensively starved as the Devils, you'd think they'd have given Boucher more of a look, but that's a debate for another day.
The key point here is Bernier's numbers are god awful given the amount of minutes and opportunities he was provided with to score points.
Now onto an underrated stat that's become a favorite of mine: penalty differential. Subtract penalties taken from penalties drawn and you have your total. The higher the number, the better it is, obviously, as that means you're giving your team more power play opportunities.
Only Adam Henrique had a better penalty differential than Carter, so that's pretty impressive. He always keeps his feet moving and does a good job of getting under the skin of opponents, so naturally you'd think he'd draw his fair share of calls.
It's not surprising to see Bernier at the bottom of this chart as he's prone to taking bad penalties at times, but he still has a positive differential so I'll give him some credit.
Again, it's hard to really comment on Josefson because he didn't play many games, and when he did he didn't see much ice. Given those circumstances, I'd say a plus-3 differential is pretty good, but I'd like to see that number over the course of a full season as a regular.
Lastly, we have Fenwick close% and goals for% in close situations. Close is when the game is tied, or within one goal in the 1st or 2nd period. That prevents stat padders when down four in the 3rd period from creeping into the numbers.
If you're unfamiliar with Fenwick, it is simply Corsi (all shot attempts) minus blocked shots. So shot attempts that a) hit the net or; b) miss the net. Again, blocks do not show up. As for goals for%, it's simply the percentage of goals that are scored by your team when you're on the ice.
As I've mentioned several times, it's a small sample size for Josefson but the goals for numbers he posted when he played are impressive.
Like we saw in the other charts, of the three regulars Carter led the way with respectable numbers, followed by Gionta and Bernier coming in last with significantly less. Bernier did post the highest Fenwick rating, but I think that's because he was riding the coattails of the Devils' top-6 forwards for a good portion of the season.
I don't think the Devils should bring back all three of CBGB - they have Josefson as well as Mike Sislo, Stefan Matteau, etc. in Albany ready to fight for a spot - and if they re-sign someone, the numbers confirmed my suspensions that it should be Ryan Carter. I wouldn't be totally against Gionta coming back, but I'd rather see Josefson slot in as the 4th line center.
As for Bernier, I think his best days are behind him. He was given ample opportunity to produce this year - he saw some top-6 minutes, power play time, etc. - and he did next to nothing. I'd rather see Matteau, Sislo or a bargain bin free agent take his spot.
It'll be interesting to see what Lamoriello decides to do here, because in this day and age a good 4th line is more important than ever.
**
Devils posts
Devils draft notes
Mike Santorelli could be a fit in New Jersey
Gelinas 2.0?
Radim Vrbata makes sense for the Devils
Devils sign Ben Johnson to three-year entry-level deal
On Brendan Lemieux and the Devils
Backup options for Schneider
It's time for Brodeur and the Devils to part ways
Buying out Anton Volchenkov makes sense
Why the Devils may shop Michael Ryder
What will Cory Schneider's next contract look like?
Jackets posts
Blue Jackets were smart to retain Todd Richards
Contract talks with Columbus, Johansen yet to begin
R.J. Umberger requests trade out of Columbus
Jackets sign top prospect Alexander Wennberg
Five years for Ryan Johansen?
Why Tim Erixon may be traded again
Should Columbus buyout R.J. Umberger?
How should Columbus handle Ryan Johansen's next contract?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Email: [email protected]
New Jersey Devils Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»