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Are NHL Scouts Starting to Lean Toward Skill Over Size? 20 Year Sample

May 29, 2014, 4:12 PM ET [157 Comments]
Colin Dambrauskas
Calgary Flames Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
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The blog I wrote yesterday, which essentially broke down historical trends of drafting the 4th overall pick in the NHL over the past 20 years, brought forward some interesting conversation.

One of said conversations was how drafting has been changing, or at least, what trends they may be following as our game changes over time. It has been a topic of debate for years that hockey is slowly moving away from the "bigger is better” attitude, as it were, to something closer to the European leagues of "speed and finesse".

With that said, I went through the drafting records of all top 10 selections over the past 20 years, five years at a time, to present any trends which may support the above notion.

Below are my findings.

From 1994-98, the average young man who was selected in the top 10 of the NHL draft was 6 feet, two inches tall weighing in at 211 pounds, and was drafted out of the Ontario Hockey League.

Five years later, from 1999-2003, the average player remained about the same, standing at 6’2 but weighing a little less at 207lbs, also coming out of the OHL.

From 2004-2008 we see again, similar drafting from NHL scouts as the average player stood at 6’2 and 207lbs, this time however coming out of the WHL. At this point in time, you are likely thinking to yourself – Colin, you haven’t presented any real trends to speak of to support your opening paragraphs.

So far, you would be right. However, what is interesting to note is that we start to see a decline in “bigger bodied” players being drafted in more recent years. In fact, from 2009-13 the average player stands at 6’0 and 192lbs and the majority came out of the OHL.

While the averages over this 20 year period were rather similar, largely due to of a few high numbers and a few low numbers, the following depicts the trends a little better from the years which we’ve covered. I will present each 5 year period, and the height totals which they offer.

1994-98
5’10 – 1
5’11 – 1
6’0 – 1
6’1 - 10
6’2 – 23
6’3 – 6
6’4 – 7
6’5 – 0
6’6 – 1
6’7 – 0

1999-03
5’10 – 2
5’11 –0
6’0 –6
6’1 - 11
6’2 – 13
6’3 – 8
6’4 –8
6’5 – 1
6’6 – 1
6’7 – 0

2004-08
5’10 – 1
5’11 –1
6’0 –4
6’1 - 7
6’2 – 14
6’3 – 16
6’4 –5
6’5 – 1
6’6 – 0
6’7 – 1

2004-13
5’10 – 4
5’11 –11
6’0 –13
6’1 - 14
6’2 – 1
6’3 – 2
6’4 –2
6’5 – 2
6’6 – 1
6’7 – 0

What the above offers is a clear trend over the past 10 years or so of NHL drafting. While the averages from 1994-2003 were rather similar, we did observe a lower number of players drafted who stood 6’3 or taller.

From 2004-2013 is where we really see the numbers start to change. In fact, there were only 12 young men drafted who stood taller than 6’3 over the last ten years, while there were 18 the years before.

But what stands out the most are the number of smaller players drafted. Over the last ten years NHL scouts drafted a total number of 34 players who were 6’0 tall or less, whereas 10 years prior they only drafted 11.

It would therefore stand to reason that there is evidently a trend of moving away from larger players in today’s NHL when it comes to drafting in the top 10.

Thanks for reading!
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