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It's that time of year again—there's a Prius with Florida plates in my driveway,

Yes, Bill "Wiz" Placzek—while he's not actually gracing my home with his presence—has shared with me his unique, rich and incredibly insightful take on what the Hawks might do in the upcoming draft.

And now I'm going to share it with you.

Bill is a former contributor to hockeysfuture.com and spends a lot of his time in the hot tub at his place in Florida. Seriously, he watches a ton of hockey and videotape of players from all over the world. Year after year, he hits on projected draft picks and in his scouting reports on players.

There's a lot here, but well worth the read and a bookmark for future reference when the draft takes place. See the end of the blog for links to Bill's complete draft information.

BILL PLACZEK:

"Each NHL Entry draft has different numbers of players in each successive Draft Tier.

Some years, there is one or two special franchise players and as many as a half-dozen or so can’t miss cornerstone prospects. Some years are abundant with more than a few players deemed as future elite and the draft is blessed with solid riches into the twenties. Others years, like 2015, boast a big three of future elite, plus a good half dozen of cornerstone prospects.

The 2014 Draft is unique, but in a different way. There seem to be no true elite franchise prospects at this time. Each player who will be selected in the top six has qualities and ingredients that set them apart from the rest of the class, but they also lack parts that are usually in place for the top echelon draftees.
Aaron Ekblad is missing an initial burst and good transition foot speed. (Think not Brent Seabrook yet.)
Sam Bennett has it all, but will his average size and gritty take-charge style transition to the pro game as an elite player?
Sam Reinhart is simply not a top end skater who explodes through. (Think not Brandon Saad yet.)
Leon Draisaitl is big, average skater, and doesn’t play big yet.
Michael Dal Colle - needs quickness in his first two steps.
And as the list continues through the top 21 you see there ARE things to like but also reservations.

After the top 21 players, the NHL team evaluators must jump down a deep chasm and shift through the rest of the class and see which kids look like the eventually WILL have the right stuff.

You have to understand this is a draft where every team is going to have really diverse rankings starting right after the 21st player slot, because the players filling 22 on ARE NOT POLISHED, COMPLETE OR EVEN PROJECTABLE AS HIGH ENDERS...so GMs take the team scout’s favorite in an area where you have an organizational need, over a cut & dried "follow the list."

So, no matter if the Blackhawks are looking for grit & size, offense, or defense,the lists get fuzzy this time around.

You can’t attempt to try compare a player selected at slot 15 in one year to a player selected 15th overall in another year. Or in the case of Chicago, slot 27.

At pick 27 they can address issues of size, defense, or offense and be sure of one of the following certainties:
a) The player will be a real long development guy, not ready to play for a long, long, long time after he fixes the issues necessary TO develop, or
b) The player will be a 2nd or 3rd year eligible who plays sooner, but never has a high threshold ala Tanner Pearson - Andrew Shaw (I am not trying to be insulting to these players-just illustrating no home run is gonna get hit in this one at pick 27).


Let’s first assume Size and Grit are the target.

Let’s look at the guys in the first who might fit that bill.
LW Nick Ritchie is off the board in the top ten. The size is attached to a nice pair of soft hands that also have been used to pound against the faces of opponents. Needs a step to get going but gets going and it would be premature to think he could replicate his scoring totals as a pro. And although Alex Tuch is the toughest guy in the draft, he will never wow anyone with puck handling ability and is going to score from in front and probably only the front. And both will be long gone by pick 27.

I am not sure if anyone has Adrian Kempe on the board as a first rounder but he fits the Blackhawks in terms of the attributes and abilities he has.
He is a big strong two-way forward with really great jump in his feet. Being powerful on his skates and strong on the puck are his biggest pluses He already uses his good size and girth to hit anything that moves. Not only is he thrilled to initiate contact, he manages to get penalized in the Swedish League when he answers the call even after the whistle has been blown.

We are not talking about a player projected to be your first line power forward because he really needs work on his shot and bit more polish to his passing game. He has decent hands and creativity and a willingness to work the wall, the front, and go get the biscuit. While he will need to become a better passer, he certainly thinks the game well and thread crisp passes through the seams, He has just got to be more consistent at it.

So you spend a first rounder on a guy you think complements your group, and probably doesn’t reach up points-a-plenty in the bigs. After what I saw in the World Junior Under-18s. he helps his team be better, not the reverse.

Another dark horse candidate I love is Justin Kirkland, a tall kid with a big frame, very good hands, a powerful stride, and complete game. He plays for a really strong Kelowna club, so I tend to temper my enthusiasm when guys are surrounded by better players as he is. He plays smart, rugged and has skill. You can’t help, but like that. He even he scores on rebounds like a big man. He has range and good flow and nimble feet in the attack zone. I won’t call he a destroyer in the attack zone, but he brings it with zeal. He is a guy that plays PP & PK and is good on the cycle, often taking the biscuit of the board and quickly advancing it inside for a scoring chance. I think his calm on-ice demeanor, coupled with his physicality and emerging over-all skill makes him a good selection to swing over the fences with. I have to confess - until this year I didn’t know who he was…I do now. There could be big upside in this kid a bit down the road.

I could easily see the Hawks taking Swedish forward Anton Karlsson too, despite the disappointing World Junior Under-18 tourney, where he went from thinking he earned his props by being a physical gritty winger who aggression in a North-South game brought his team chances to a player who imagined he was the most skilled guy out there, and had to try and do all things by himself.

There is much to like in terms of his strong passionate play in both ends, and strong skater who can be strong on the puck, a destroyer on the wall and problems in the front.


We haven’t seen the Blackhawks go Defense since the late first round pick of Dylan Olsen.

In general, First rounds of Entry Drafts average about 10 defense taken.

This year I expect two to be taken in the top 21, and it is highly unlikely eight more defenders get selected in the last nine first round slots, but if teams figure the longer wait is worth it, I guess it could happen.
In most years, they start to get selected in spurts after the highly-ranked forwards and “can’t miss” defenders. The promising dee-men go fairly quickly and even before the round is over you will see teams taking hard looks at the defenders who need a whole lot more time to round their games in college, or by extending their junior careers without being fast-tracked.

This draft may see the fewest defenseman taken in a first round ever. The top candidates may show
the signs that they can excel, but still haven’t taken over large parts of games or impacted outcomes at this point. Or they simply get lost in coverage or have hitches in the defensive parts of their play against other juniors.

This draft may be one similar to 2001 in that respect, where few teams got NHL regulars on defense in the first round.

There simply aren’t many defenders in this crop that have shown reliable play game in and game out to make me comfortable with talking them up. Sure, Aaron Ekblad is getting called a cornerstone. With the way the game is played, I like my cornerstones to have two quick first steps. He does have lots of parts already in place to like and will play in the league, maybe for a long time, but don’t buy first pair just yet.
Even Haydn Fleury, who I think has a good chance to develop into a Seabrook-type, isn’t without issues as a defender. Don’t be surprised if a team takes him way earlier than I have him,even in the first half-dozen, because his size, feet, carrying ability, and offensive upside are a valued commodity.

After Fleury, the board becomes a choice of various Swedish, US, Czech and Canadian lads who will need even more time to hone their skills, bulk their frames, and gradually turn pro.

Whether you discuss Markus Pettersson, the “Four USA Horsemen,” Anthony DeAngelo, Julius Honka, Roland McKeown, Travis Sanheim, Aaron Irving, Andreas Eglund, you are going to hear glowing attributes mixed with negatives or talk of missing parts to their game.

I could see the Hawks taking any on the four USA defenseman of Jack Glover, Jack Dougherty, big Ryan Collins, or Jonathan MacLeod with one of their top two picks. They have scrutinized past USNTDP prospects for a decade now and have taken many. All these defenders are wait and see go to college and learn on the job types with nice packages.

Is Future skill a priority?

This draft is full of so many smaller skilled guys that even the Hawks would be tempted to revisit a smaller attack forward. Maybe size (or other needs) will matter, but if Canadien Robbie Fabbri, or the Swiss-born Czech Kevin Fiala, or Czech David Pastrnak will be available in the same way TT was, I know I wouldn’t hesitate.

I would be shocked Robbie Fabbri and Kevin Fiala, both around 5’ 10.5 last to pick 27.

They are smart, passionate, tough high pace speedsters that turn defenseman inside out and never take a shift off. Fabbri is probably more physical but he is more than willing to initiate contact to unloosen pucks.

David Pastrnak who is maybe a inch or so bigger than these to might slip through.

He also comes to play every shift and has great edging and puck skills at top speed. He can go East-West with lateral agility driving inside and letting go with his hard shot, change direction and get the rebound. He basically plays the opposite half-board that Kaner does and shows that change of pace moves and puck skills that are very similar.
The fact remains there is plentiful amount of lesser lights, including LW Sonny Milano, RW Josh Ho-Sang, and RC Braydon Point.

Canadian Josh Ho-Sang’s father is a black Jamaican of Chinese ancestry, while his Jewish mother is Chilean with Russian and Swedish roots and all hockey player. At under 170 pounds, he is a tremendous one on one stickhandler who turns defenseman inside out and then quickly lets go his heavy shot. Before you say no more small guys like this watch the clips.

(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p3VrzVxSBC0&feature=youtu.be)

Sonny Milano is from the USNTDP program that Hawks have chosen plenty of forwards from. He also has great quickness, agility and hands, although he prefers attacking to defending.

Braydon Point is a game changing offensive threat with true attack instincts, incredible hands and touch, and high hockey IQ. His team, Moose Jaw, was in a full rebuild, and he squarely lead. Weaves in and out of traffic using his decent foot speed and agility to pick the opportune moment to close in for the kill. A game breaker. The issue is he is around 5’9” and 160 lbs. and might not be durable enough handle the physical play at the NHL level. He might be there when the Hawks make their second early third round pick.

Or is getting a guaranteed bottom six regular a better route?
There are many forwards who are in that top thirty who may not ever reach the high water marks that
that the NHL scouting staffs saw in them. It might be they never develop their defensive side. Bottom six forwards must take care of business in their end first and foremost. There are questions lingering with these guys below. And the first five are probably off the board before the Hawks go to the podium. I just don’t see them being great top six players like the rest of the scouting community does.

1. Brendan Perlini - the big winger really took a jump in his standing. I just wish he had stronger 60 minute outings and less turnovers…and a little snarl, maybe? Others have him just outside the top ten.

(These next three guys are already playing in North America.)

2. Nikita Scherbak - Big frame, great skater, deceptive speed, great hands, and really strong on the stick. He really compares to Hossa when he comes back in his own end and doesn’t back down when he is being jostled.
3. Ivan Barbashev - Really good three zone player and scorer, with some physicality too. Russian in name only. He’s a guy you want on your team, but he does have good speed or acceleration.
4. Nikolay Goldobin - Lightning like acceleration and puck handler. Just don’t expect him to play defense or play harder when he gets hit.
5. Jared McCann - Oozes skill and great speed, but is six foot and disinterested for the most part in his defensive zone, from what I saw.

This trio will probably be there:

6. Jakub Vrana - Was touted as a top pick two years ago. He is six foot, thick, quick and skilled, but doesn’t come to play sixty minutes.

7. Vladislav Kamenev - This guy is crossing the pond for sure, and may play soon. His game is solid all over and is built for contact. He will be a three zone player, but is not gonna be a big scorer.

8. Nick Schmaltz - he is so skilled that he can make outstanding individual plays seem easy. He makes plays that most prospects dream they could. His stick, feet, and vision make him a threat to the final horn. The knock is he disappears when the hitting starts and has no interest in defense and his intensity wanes from shift to shift, game to game.

Teams like the Blackhawks might just be happy someone like:

Conner Bleackley, who is just a bit over six foot but doesn’t project up as an NHL team savior, just one of the cogs that does the work on the wall and in front very game. He may never have superb offensive instincts, but does lots for you as a third liner. Goes in to high traffic and ends up with scoring chances. Brent Sutter, his coach, helped mold him into captain who never test out-worked shift after shift.
Or,

John Quenneville, yes, a cousin of Joel I believe. He is a bigger kid who can add size and strength to his frame. As a centre he distributes the puck well, is good on the forecheck and plays in traffic. Has lateral ability and is a long strider who suddenly gets there. Has a hard snapshot. Has a good motor even though he can’t really explode on his skates to loose pucks, but still manages to let go a strong shot when he gets there. Good in his own end, good in transition. Not really a high traffic player at this time, and seems like perimeter guy. His pretty good on the rush whether you see him as a centre or a winger.
Or,

Brent Pollock, who is a run and gun player who thrived playing with quality linemates. He is bigger guy at 6’ 2”, has good hands, a good cycle and plays strong on the puck in the offensive zone. His strong skating has helped him have success scoring from all different areas. Sounds like a good fit until you favor in he needs to add physicality, and his short choppy strides do cause him issues getting back on his check.


Well I hope I have given you a little insight into the class and the players in it.”

Visit Bill on DraftSite at:
http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2014/

Click on player names, NHL team names, and T for trade and you will be surprised at the things that will see.

Bill also has a section of how the players in each year did in the 2000-2011 Redrafts, seeing which of the prospects worked hard and made the transition to pro. http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/redraft/2000/

And you can take a preliminary look at the first three rounds of 2015 at this link:
http://www.draftsite.com/nhl/mock-draft/2015/

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